MEA figures cast doubt on BJP’s narrative of large-scale Bangladeshi infiltration

India’s acknowledgement that Dhaka has yet to verify 2,862 suspected Bangladeshi nationals for deportation, some pending for over five years, has punched holes in the BJP’s long-running claims of large-scale “infiltration” into eastern India.

The disclosure by India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) on Thursday came amid renewed friction between New Delhi and Dhaka over alleged illegal migrants and so-called “pushback” operations along the India-Bangladesh border.

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For years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and senior BJP leaders have made illegal Bangladeshi migration a central political issue in border states such as West Bengal and Assam, often linking it to demographic change and national security.

Data questions infiltration claims

Union Home Minister Amit Shah, while addressing BJP leaders and the party’s newly elected legislators in Kolkata on Friday evening, once again raised the bogey of alleged demographic change, reiterating that with the BJP now set to rule Bengal, there would be no further influx of illegal migrants from Bangladesh.

Yet the relatively small number of formally processed deportation cases has exposed a gap between political rhetoric and ground reality, analysts and Opposition leaders said.

“If infiltration was occurring at the scale projected in election speeches, the natural question is why only a few thousand cases are formally pending for deportation after more than a decade of BJP rule at the Centre,” said Ranjit Sur of the Association for Protection of Democratic Rights (APDR).

A 2024 analysis by The Federal found that available demographic trends did not conclusively establish the large-scale illegal migration from Bangladesh frequently cited by BJP leaders in campaign speeches and political messaging.

Census data showed that population growth rates among Muslims in border states had steadily declined over decades, roughly mirroring national trends.

Moreover, India has not conducted any recent official exercise quantifying undocumented Bangladeshi migrants nationwide to substantiate claims of demographic change with reliable data.

Opposition challenges narrative

The official figure disclosed by MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal at a weekly media briefing on Thursday was revealing, coming less than a year after a nationwide crackdown was launched at the behest of the home ministry to detect and deport illegal migrants from Bangladesh.

“The figure suggested that the outcome of the crackdown did not correspond to the extent of demographic change projected by the BJP over the years,” said Kolkata-based geopolitical commentator Nirmalya Banerjee. The official data has failed to substantiate claims of migration on the scale suggested in political speeches, he added.

Opposition parties say the infiltration issue has increasingly functioned as a political mobilisation tool rather than an administratively demonstrable crisis.

“The BJP has kept the infiltration narrative alive because it helps polarisation politics in Bengal and Assam,” said Congress leader Ranajit Mukherjee. “But when one looks at actual deportation data, the numbers are nowhere near the political claims.”

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In recent years, police have periodically announced the arrest of alleged Bangladeshi nationals working as migrant labourers, particularly in BJP-ruled states, often claiming they possessed fake Aadhaar cards and other forged documents.

Migration row strains ties

But rights groups such as APDR and opposition parties have accused authorities of arbitrary detentions and targeting Bengali-speaking Muslims.

The issue has become increasingly entangled with India-Bangladesh relations, which have shown signs of strain since political unrest in Bangladesh over the last couple of years.

The MEA spokesperson stated that India had repeatedly asked Bangladesh to expedite nationality verification so deportations could proceed “in a smooth manner.” He added that several verification requests had remained unresolved for over five years. India was responding to remarks from Bangladeshi officials over alleged “push-in” operations.

The remarks followed the BJP’s sweeping victory in West Bengal’s Assembly elections, where illegal migration and voter-list scrutiny were major campaign issues for the BJP.

Bangladesh’s Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed expressed apprehension that the BJP’s rise to power in West Bengal could intensify “pushback” operations across the border, while Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman warned that Dhaka would respond if people were forcibly sent into Bangladesh.

Bangladesh voices concerns

Many in Bangladesh voiced concern that reports of post-poll violence against Muslims and the large-scale deletion of voters from the community during the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise in West Bengal could deepen anti-India sentiment and further aggravate communal tensions there.

Bangladesh’s National Citizen Party (NCP) convener and former adviser for information and broadcasting in the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government, Nahid Islam, said the BJP’s rise to power in West Bengal placed added responsibility on Bangladesh to uphold communal harmony and protect minority rights amid fears of heightened polarisation.

Nahid claimed that large numbers of Muslim and Matua voters had been excluded from the electoral process and alleged that minorities faced intimidation after the polls.

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He, however, urged Bangladeshis not to react through sectarian rhetoric, saying Dhaka should demonstrate its commitment to safeguarding all religious communities, including Hindus, Muslims, Buddhists and Christians.

Migration rhetoric risks tensions

The BJP’s victory in West Bengal has heightened sensitivities because the party campaigned heavily on promises to identify “illegal infiltrators,” tighten border controls and review voter rolls.

During the election campaign, the SIR process triggered controversy after thousands of Muslim voters and people from other marginalised sections were removed from the electoral rolls. The BJP defended the exercise as necessary to eliminate fake voters.

Analysts said the renewed focus on migration could complicate New Delhi’s ties with Dhaka. “The infiltration narrative now operates simultaneously as a domestic political issue and a diplomatic pressure point,” said Kolkata-based political scientist Debasish Chakrabarti. “That creates risks for bilateral relations because rhetoric in election campaigns can spill over into state-to-state relations.”