BJP govt in Bengal sparks Teesta hope and immigrant ‘push back’ concern in Dhaka

The emphatic win of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recent West Bengal election has evoked both optimism and apprehension in Bangladesh.

There is optimism in Dhaka that the long-pending Teesta River water-sharing issue can now be implemented following a change in the government in West Bengal.

Also read: From CM's 'right hand' to CM: Suvendu Adhikari set to lead Bengal's first BJP govt

But equally, there are concerns that the BJP electoral rhetoric about illegal immigrants from Bangladesh in the state, if resulted in a “push back” towards Bangladesh, will not only be resisted but can seriously damage relations between the two.

Attempts are on to normalise ties

Bilateral ties have gone through long spells of strain in recent months, particularly in the post-Sheikh Hasina period when the former Bangladesh prime minister was ousted from power in August 2024. However, sincere attempts are now being made by both sides to improve and normalise relations.

India and Bangladesh share an extremely porous 4,097-km border, allowing people to sneak into the other side with ease.

The two countries also share more than 54 transboundary rivers, including the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna. The Teesta is vital for irrigation in both north Bengal and northern part of Bangladesh, as millions depend on its water for agriculture and their daily life.

Also read: Suvendu Adhikari to become first BJP CM of Bengal, elected Legislature Party Leader

The ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) information secretary Azizul Baree Helal has expressed optimism that the BJP-led government in West Bengal will be on the same page with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in signing the long-pending Teesta River water treaty with Bangladesh than its predecessor.

Controversy over Teesta

In September 2011, Mamata Banerjee, the then chief minister of West Bengal, dropped off from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s two-day trip to Dhaka in opposition to the proposed treaty on Teesta. The treaty has not been signed till date as no Indian prime minister wants to go ahead in finalising it without the support of the West Bengal government.

Teesta has remained an emotive and sour point in India-Bangladesh relations and often been a handy tool for the anti-Indian section in Dhaka to mobilise sentiments against Delhi in the country.

Also read: Bengal still in a state of flux as Amit Shah lands in Kolkata

Prime Minister Modi, who enjoyed an excellent relationship with his Bangladesh counterpart Sheikh Hasina, often discussed the issue of Teesta with her on the difficulty in signing the treaty by ignoring concerns raised by the West Bengal chief minister.

But the issue was an embarrassment for Hasina as she failed to convince her supporters that despite enjoying an extremely cooperative relationship with India, why she failed to push the Teesta treaty for implementation.

Illegal immigration

While there is hope in Bangladesh on the Teesta River issue, there are rising worries on how India will deal with “illegal immigrants” from Bangladesh, as both in Assam and in West Bengal Assembly elections, the issue was repeatedly raised by BJP leaders.

“The results of these two Indian states are a clear message to Bangladesh,” said Altaf Hussain, political commentator in an opinion piece in Prothom Alo newspaper.

Taking a cue from his view, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman, warned: “If incidents of ‘push-ins’ increase under the new government in West Bengal, Bangladesh will respond.”

Bangladesh Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed, however, was more restrained in his opinion. “I hope no such incidents will happen,” he said in response to questions on possible push back from India of Bangladeshi illegal immigrants.

Also read: Bengal violence raises questions over Election Commission's accountability | AI With Sanket

He assured that he has already asked the Border Guard Bangladesh to remain alert and resist any attempt at pushing in people from India.

Outsiders from Bangladesh has remained an issue

The issue of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh has bothered various Indian governments in the past. Though under the Modi government it has been highlighted more prominently and in a more sustained manner.

While in Assam it remained part of a sustained campaign by sections of political parties, it turned into a key electoral plank of the BJP.

Similarly, in West Bengal, the issue of Bangladeshi immigrants was often talked about, but until recently, no political party had turned it into a key electoral issue.

Observers say this was mainly due to two reasons. One, West Bengal traditionally had a substantial number of Bengali Muslims and, according to the 2011 census, they were 27 per cent of the state’s population. Now it is estimated to have reached about 30 per cent or more.

There were few takers for driving them away mainly because it would unnecessarily jeopardise the status of traditional Bengali Muslims and also because many political parties had gained in increasing their vote bank by inducting the outsiders.

The BJP’s policy against the “illegal immigrants” have come under criticism from various quarters for using a “broad brush” allegedly to reduce West Bengal’s Muslim population. However, in recent months, there has been much bigger support among West Bengal’s Hindu voters against the outsiders.

The decisive victory of the BJP in the state Assembly election, irrespective of the controversy over the SIR—the special intensive revision of the electoral roll deleting lakhs of names from the list, the popular support for the party was evident in the result of the polls.

India-Bangladesh relations

Bilateral relations between the neighbours had nosedived after Hasina’s departure and especially, under the interim Muhammad Yunus government. Since the election that brought BNP to power and made Tarique Rahman the prime minister in Dhaka, there is promise of their ties improving.

Both Bangladesh and India need each other for economic, political and strategic reasons. While China is a major developmental partner of Bangladesh, India’s main worry in recent months have stemmed from Pakistan’s attempt to re-establish its presence in Dhaka.

Also read: What explains Bengal’s saffron shift? 6 reasons why Mamata was decimated

Bangladesh shares borders with many states in India’s north-eastern region that has gone through long phases of unrest. Unstable Myanmar next door only adds to India’s worries about the North East region.

Though China’s footprint has increased in Bangladesh, it is not a South Asian country, and it will find it difficult to replace the primacy that India enjoys in Dhaka and in other capitals in the region.

The Bangladesh leadership is aware of it and wants strong and friendly ties with India.

Both the issues of illegal immigrants and the pending Teesta River treaty have posed a renewed challenge for India in dealing with Bangladesh.