FIFA World Cup 2026: AI favours Argentina or France as winners; mathematician has surprise pick

The FIFA World Cup 2026 has entered the knockout stage, with the expanded 48-team tournament now reduced to 32 contenders. The single-elimination phase will continue for the next 22 days before the final takes place on July 19 at the New York Stadium.

As fans debate favourites and make their own predictions, artificial intelligence platforms have also joined the conversation.

We asked four popular AI models for their picks to win the World Cup and the reasons behind their choices.

Also read: Canada script history, reach Round of 16 at FIFA World Cup

The result? AI appears divided mainly between defending champions Argentina and 2018 winners France. However, a German mathematician has come up with a completely different prediction.

ChatGPT prediction: France to lift the trophy

ChatGPT has backed France as the 2026 World Cup winners, highlighting their squad depth, experience and ability to handle knockout pressure.

France have one of the deepest squads in world football, with quality players across attack, midfield and defence. The platform pointed out that Kylian Mbappé remains a decisive factor, with his ability to change the outcome of tight matches.

Another advantage, it said, for France is its balance. France have shown they can win difficult games through defensive discipline and tactical flexibility, a quality often required in World Cup knockout matches.

Also read: No ordinary defeat: How early World Cup exits have ignited chaos, fury at home

ChatGPT listed Argentina as the biggest challenger, followed by Spain, England and Brazil.

Claude leans towards Argentina

Claude sees Argentina and France as the leading contenders, with Spain, England and Brazil forming the next group of serious challengers.

However, Claude’s leans towards Argentina because of their continuity. The core squad that won the 2022 World Cup already knows how to handle pressure, survive close matches and manage high-stakes moments.

Argentina’s calm 3-1 win over Jordan in the opening knockout round was also seen as a sign of a team comfortable with tournament pressure.

Also read: FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Boot: Messi leads with 5, Vinicius has 4; six players reach 3

However, France remain the strongest alternative because their squad depth gives them an advantage across a long seven-match campaign.

Gemini AI picks Argentina

Gemini AI also backed Argentina, pointing to their favourable route to the final and their tournament experience.

The model believes several European heavyweights, including France, Spain, Germany and Portugal, could eliminate each other because of their position in the same side of the bracket.

It also highlighted Lionel Messi’s influence. With less pressure after completing his World Cup legacy in 2022, Messi’s presence could continue to inspire confidence within the squad. Gemini also believes Argentina’s travelling support in North America could provide them with an added advantage during the knockout stages.

Perplexity AI backs France

Perplexity AI selected France, with Argentina as the closest challenger.

Its reasoning was based on France’s depth, experience and tactical flexibility. The model noted that France have quality replacements in almost every position and are less dependent on one or two players having a perfect tournament.

Also read: FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32: Which teams have qualified for knockouts?

Having reached the 2018 World Cup title and the 2022 final, France’s core players are also familiar with the pressure of major knockout matches.

Perplexity believes France’s ability to adapt, whether defending deep, counter-attacking or controlling possession, makes them the most complete team in the competition.

The surprise prediction

While AI mostly favoured Argentina and France, German mathematician Joachim Klement has predicted a surprise winner: the Netherlands.

Klement has correctly predicted the last three World Cup winners: Germany in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022. His statistical model considers factors such as GDP per capita, football infrastructure, population, football culture, world rankings and an element of chance.

According to him, the Netherlands will defeat Spain in the semifinal before beating Portugal in the final to become world champions. Klement predicts Portugal will overcome England in the other semifinal.