For Moscow, the relationship with New Delhi and Beijing has acquired greater importance in the current geopolitical context
As Russian President Vladimir Putin sits down at the summit meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, one key question is: Which of the two is more dependent on the other? Both nations are the targets of US President Donald Trump, though in varying degrees, but are targets nevertheless.
If Moscow is being heavily sanctioned by Trump over the war with Ukraine, India, too finds itself caught in the crossfire on the issue of oil imports from Russia. Unable to countenance Trump’s punitive tariffs, the Narendra Modi government has directed India’s oil companies to reduce buying crude from Russia’s sanctioned companies, and they already have.
Indo-Russia ties can't be rocked easily
Contrary to the perception that the Russian president may take exception to Modi’s buckling under Trump’s pressure, Putin, by agreeing to come to India for the summit, has made it clear that India-Russia ties cannot be easily shaken. And, more importantly, he has affirmed there is more strategic depth to Moscow’s ties with New Delhi than generally assumed.
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On the eve of Putin’s visit, the Russian parliament’s ratification of a military logistics pact with India is a clear sign of that depth. The Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support (RELOS) enables the two countries to make use of each other’s territory for use by military personnel, as well as military ships and aircraft.
This pact, by far, is the most far-reaching agreement between the two countries in the post-Soviet era. It throws open the possibility of extensive cooperation — militarily and otherwise.
India, which is far removed from the increasingly important Arctic region, could even acquire access to it under this pact. Indian naval vessels, including those involved in scientific research, can now berth at a Russian port in the Arctic, and conduct their activities.
Also read: S-400, Su-30 upgrades on agenda in India–Russia Defence Ministers' talks
Other agreements are on expected lines — India’s purchase of the latest version of the stealth fighter aircraft, the SU-57s, the advanced version of the S-400 missile defence system, and a USD 2billion-worth nuclear submarine.
Contrary to the perception that the Russian president may take exception to Modi’s buckling under Trump’s pressure, Putin, by agreeing to come to India for the summit, has made it clear that Indo-Russia ties cannot be easily shaken.
For Russia, as Putin himself told the media before his departure for India, the relationship with India (along with China) has acquired greater importance in the context of geopolitics as it stands today. It's not a surprising admission given that the European nations, particularly the members of NATO, have all but distanced themselves from Russia, except for a few countries such as Hungary and Serbia.
The European Union has thrown its weight behind Ukraine and is, in fact, resisting the Trump-led peace efforts as, in its view, the draft agreement is slanted in favour of Russia.
Peace deal favouring Russia
For Putin, it is crucial to work out a peace deal along lines that favour Russia’s strategic interests, and his team is unwilling to compromise. The negotiations hang in the balance at this point in time.
Also read: Before Putin visit, Russia okays key military pact, says it’ll fix trade deficit ‘problem’
Until a solution is found, the war continues. Though Russia continues to pound Ukraine, causing it enormous damage, Putin too has sustained losses in terms of troops and his country’s economy. It would be foolhardy for Russia to antagonise India too on the issue of oil imports.
In that sense, Putin has taken a pragmatic approach, trying to sew a tighter relationship with India – one that cannot be easily undone, Trump or no Trump.
India has more reasons to be close with Russia
For India, under fire from its strategic partner, the United States, there are more reasons than one to continue its close relationship with Russia. The Modi government has gone in for a far-reaching, long-term logistics pact with Moscow despite being a member of the US-led Quad, which is an all-purpose formation opposed to China, and arguably by extension, against Russia. This makes it amply clear that New Delhi has decided it is not going to let go of either the US or Russia. On the contrary, it continues to do business with both, despite diplomatic pressures from either side.
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New Delhi’s equation with Moscow is also important to maintain political equations in its favour in the wider Asian region, including South Asia. That China is closer to Pakistan than to India is a fact that none, especially foreign policy planners, can ignore. At the same time, it is imperative for India to maintain a tension-free relationship with China. It is here that Russia is already playing an important role.
Given that Russia-China relationship has rarely been closer than now, Putin has leverage over China’s Xi Jinping government, which can at least help dilute, if not neutralise, the subterranean rivalry and mutual resentment that exists between New Delhi and Beijing. A case in point is the recent incident of an Indian passport holder, born in Arunachal Pradesh, who was harassed by Chinese immigration. Officials in Beijing refused to accept that Arunachal is part of India, while clearly it is very much so.
Also read: India diversifying away from Russian oil, says Trump aide, Jamieson Greer
So, the mutual distrust between China and India exists. Since Russia is invested in India, for decades going back to the Soviet era, diplomatic logic dictates that it will not allow Beijing-New Delhi ties to deteriorate.
New Delhi’s equation with Moscow is also important to maintain political equations in its favour in the wider Asian region, including South Asia. It is imperative for India to maintain a tension-free relationship with China. It is here that Russia is already playing an important role.
Similarly, India’s newfound closeness to Afghanistan’s Taliban can again be linked to New Delhi’s relationship with Moscow. Russia, in fact, was the first to formally recognise the Taliban government, which gives it an enormous handle in dealing with the regime in Kabul.
And, as a close ally of Russia, it would make sense for India to capitalise on this relationship, which it has.
Putin's Pakistan-check on India
Putin, to ensure that New Delhi does not take Moscow for granted, has worked out his own leverage with India by developing a closer relationship with Pakistan. To ensure that India does not cross any red lines that infringe on Moscow’s interests, Putin has encouraged visits from top Pakistan officials and has discussed defence deals too.
If India takes a wrong step that antagonises Russia, it can trigger a new axis between Moscow, Beijing and Islamabad, which can tilt the regional balance completely against New Delhi.
When India gave in to Trump’s pressure and reduced buying oil from Russia, there was a general speculation whether this would be that tipping point in ties between Moscow and New Delhi. Fortunately, events since have shown that Putin has not taken the Modi government’s rejection to heart and effectively shown there is much more solidity to Russia-India relationship.
