Syrian crisis will continue for a while; rebels not a unified force: Former Indian diplomats

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The retired diplomats say one must now wait and watch to see if the opposition forces in that country remain together and open a "new chapter" of unity, sanity and development.

‘Sectarian strife likely’

A day after the rebel forces overthrew President Assad's authoritarian government in Syria, India on Monday (December 9) called for a peaceful and inclusive Syrian-led political process to bring stability to that country.

Anil Wadhwa, a former Secretary (East) in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) thinks the situation in Syria now is "not going to be easy at all".

Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani has said that while he will "respect minorities", but he has also said they should follow the right kind of religion, Wadhwa pointed out, while conjecturing that this could lead to sectarian strife.

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The former diplomat said this development in Syria will have an impact on a wider region.

Not the end of the story

"I don't think it is something that will settle very quickly. Interested parties will be affected and they will start resisting. So, it's not the end of the story in Syria," Wadhwa told PTI.

Alluding to the US, he said, the Americans are "happy to control the oil fields", so they got their troops there. "I feel it is going to be unsettled for a while," he said.

Wadhwa, however, said that he was "not surprised" about what was happening in Syria, adding, "The day there was a truce in Lebanon, I knew."

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The MEA said it is monitoring the unfolding developments in Syria while underlining the need for all parties to work towards preserving the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Arab Republic.

World leaders welcome Assad’s ouster

The Syrian government collapsed on Sunday as rebels seized control of the capital Damascus. Russian state media reported that Assad is in Moscow and will be given asylum. His nearly 14-year tenure was marked by civil war, bloodshed and a brutal crackdown on his political opponents.

Hours after the rebels captured power, official sources in Delhi on Sunday said all Indian nationals in Syria are safe.

Many leading countries have also welcomed the fall of the nearly 14-year-long Assad regime that witnessed civil strife across Syria.

"After 14 years of conflict, the Syrian people finally have reason for hope," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

On the reaction of world powers to the fall of the Assad regime, Wadhwa said whoever takes over, if a regime is "favourable" they are fine with that.

Asked about many reports using words such as "brutalist regime" about the rule of Assad and his family, he said these terms are "quite a bit of propaganda and rhetoric".

Rebels not a coherent force, disagreements likely

India's former ambassador to Italy K P Fabian said the dramatic chain of events in Syria was quite sudden. "Nobody knew this was coming. On November 27, Idlib, near the Turkish border, fell. On November 29, Aleppo, a big city, was falling."

He said Syrian army members are "retreating", so people there are not getting killed. And, the masses in Syria "seem to be happy", the former diplomat added.

Fabian, however, cautioned that the rebels are "not a coherent force".

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Fabian is the author of the Arab Spring That Was and Wasn't which captures all the dramatic force of 'The Arab Spring' beginning with its eruption in Tunisia in 2011 "As far as India is concerned, we will work with any government that is there," he said.

Fabian said if there is a peaceful change that will be good. But, if they will have fights later, it will not bode well, he added.

(With inputs from agencies)