One Nation, One Election | Why govt move to introduce it in Parliament is more about optics

The Union Cabinet, on Thursday, is learnt to have given its nod to two Bills that would, if enacted, pave the way for synchronising Lok Sabha elections with polls for all assemblies of all States and Union Territories.

Though there was no official word from the Modi government on details of the proposed laws, sources in the Union Cabinet said that the Bills would be “introduced in Parliament during the ongoing winter session and immediately referred to a joint committee of parliament for wider scrutiny and consultations”.

Sources said the Bills are “in line with the recommendations of the Centre-appointed High Level Committee (HLC)” helmed by former President of India, Ramnath Kovind, which had outlined a “two step” formula for realising the BJP’s long-pending promise of rolling out ‘One Nation, One Election’ (ONOE).

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Kovind panel recommendations

The Kovind panel had recommended that in the first step for rolling out simultaneous polls, an amendment must be made to the Constitution to align the tenure of the Lok Sabha with that of all Assemblies. In the second step, the Kovind panel had suggested an amendment to the Constitution to align elections of all panchayat and municipal bodies with those of the Lok Sabha and Assemblies.

Sources said that of the two Bills approved by the Cabinet on Thursday, the first is a Constitution Amendment Bill in line with ‘step one’ outlined by the HLC; that is, to align elections to the Lok Sabha and the State Assemblies. The second Bill approved by the Cabinet pertains to synchronising elections for the National Capital Territory of Delhi with those for the Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Pondicherry.

It is learnt that a Bill to align the municipal and panchayat polls with the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections was not placed before the Cabinet, on Thursday. Likewise, no Bill was presented to the Cabinet for realising the other crucial recommendation made by the Kovind panel – that of making a Single Electoral Roll for the entire country. Sources said the Centre was in “no hurry” to push these two Bills as, unlike the Bills for synchronising Lok Sabha polls with Assembly polls, the proposed laws for simultaneous local body elections and drafting a common electoral roll would, upon being passed by Parliament, need ratification by not less than one-half of all state assemblies.

Calculated political move

The government’s willingness to refer the Bills for synchronising Lok Sabha and Assembly polls to a joint parliamentary committee appears to be a calculated political move by the Modi regime.

The Centre knows that it doesn’t have the required legislative strength – a two-thirds majority of those present and voting – to get the Constitution amendment passed in either House of Parliament if the Bill is put to a vote with all members present. The two-thirds majority mark in the Lok Sabha stands at 363 members against the BJP-led NDA’s current strength of 293 MPs while in the Rajya Sabha, this figure is 160 members against the Treasury’s current bench strength of 122 MPs.

Also read: 'One Nation One Election' Bill: Opposition CMs dub move 'unconstitutional', 'anti-democratic'

With opinions sharply divided between the Treasury and Opposition sides not just on the ONOE but on nearly all matters as borne out by the disruptions and trading of acerbic barbs during the ongoing winter session, it is widely acknowledged that the Centre cannot evolve a political consensus on simultaneous polls.

Thus, the regime’s willingness to introduce the Bill in Parliament is more a case of optics – a bold statement of intent to implement the BJP’s pet project of simultaneous polls despite the jolt of the June Lok Sabha polls. It is also, arguably, meant to serve at least three other purposes – highlight the BJP’s renewed belligerence after its recent poll triumphs in Maharashtra and Haryana, taunt the Opposition that has been accusing Modi’s BJP of “murdering democracy” and “undermining the Constitution” and further divert attention from the Congress’s continuing attacks at the PM over his alleged “relationship” with controversial billionaire Gautam Adani.

Bid to dent Opposition’s charge

By indicating its willingness to send the Bill to a parliamentary committee for further deliberations – something that had become a rarity over the past decade of Modi’s rule, the Centre, perhaps, wishes to dent the Opposition’s charge of “bulldozing” controversial legislation through Parliament without making even a superfluous attempt of evolving political consensus. A reference to a parliamentary committee also allows the BJP’s backroom negotiators time to reach out to ‘pliable’ Opposition parties for cooperation in getting the Bill passed either by supporting it or abstaining from the voting process as and when the legislation makes its way back, in whatever form, to Parliament for consideration and passing.

The BJP is likely to use the time during which the Bill is under consideration of the joint committee of parliament to canvass even more aggressively in public on the merits of synchronising all elections. Sources in the BJP told The Federal that Modi has already asked a group of senior leaders of his party to highlight the benefits of ONOE during public events and poll rallies while the party and its affiliate organisations will also conduct a series of events – awareness campaigns, public meetings and consultations, seminars, et al – extolling the virtues of synchronised polls.

There is, however, no clarity yet on the moot question of the timeline that the BJP has set for itself for the ONOE rollout. As per the HLC recommendation, a prerequisite for implementing simultaneous polls, once Parliament enacts the enabling legislation, is the issuance of a notification by the President of India on the first day of the first session of a newly constituted Lok Sabha setting the ‘appointed date’, five years from which simultaneous polls would be rolled out.

Also read: One Nation One Election: Let it be contested in political arena; no need to summon red herrings

Rollout not possible in 2029

If the Centre sticks to this recommendation of the Kovind committee, ONOE cannot be rolled out in 2029, when the next Lok Sabha polls are due as the first session of current Lok Sabha had concluded in July without the enabling legislation and presidential notification being in force. As such, the earliest that the Centre can hope to roll out simultaneous polls, if it sticks to the HLC recommendation, is in 2034.

Whether the Centre has adopted the HLC recommendation for setting the ‘appointed date’ or devised a new formula for it in the Bill cleared by the Union Cabinet is not known. The Centre has also offered no comment on how it plans to respond to criticism, particularly by the Congress and regional outfits that are part of the INDIA bloc, of ONOE being anathema to the constitutional tenet of federalism nor has it assuaged legitimate fears of simultaneous polls robbing regional outfits a level playing field in elections.

These matters, along with questions of the electoral feasibility, especially in the event of mid-term polls being necessitated at the central or state level, and economic viability of synchronised polls will, perhaps, be answered by the Centre once the Bill is tabled in Parliament.