Monsoon retreat likely to begin around Sept 19, but rains to continue: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday (September 14) said conditions are becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to begin withdrawing from parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, marking the start of its retreat from the Indian mainland.

The southwest monsoon enters India through the Kerala coast and gradually covers the country over the following four months. Its withdrawal typically begins from the far western parts of Rajasthan before progressing southward and eastward.

The onset of withdrawal comes as the country continues to record a significant rainfall deficit. Between June 1 and September 13, cumulative monsoon rainfall was 15 per cent below normal, according to the IMD.

Southern states worst hit

Southern peninsular India has recorded the largest shortfall so far, with rainfall 28 per cent below normal. East and Northeast India followed with a deficit of 25 per cent.

The monsoon began on a particularly weak note this year, with June rainfall 36.5 per cent below normal. The deficient rains disrupted the early sowing of kharif crops, with the area under cultivation nearly 21 per cent lower than the corresponding period last year by the end of June.

Also Read: Southwest monsoon covers entire country, one day behind schedule

However, the monsoon strengthened during July and August, helping reduce the overall deficit. July rainfall was 1 per cent above normal on a cumulative all-India basis.

Despite the recovery, prolonged dry spells in several areas have kept the national deficit close to 15 per cent, with regional deficits ranging from zero to 35 per cent.

Low-pressure system remains active

The expected withdrawal from Rajasthan does not mean the monsoon will immediately end across India. Several regions are forecast to continue receiving rain in the coming days.

West Rajasthan is expected to see isolated to scattered rain through September 18, followed by relatively dry conditions on September 19-20.

Also Read: Met department forecasts below-normal rainfall in Aug-Sept, barring parts of India

The IMD has forecast fairly widespread rain over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, and adjoining areas from September 15-17, while Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi could receive rain on September 16-17.

Rainfall is also expected to continue in parts of the south, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal, with isolated heavy rain possible through September 20.

Food prices in focus

Acreage under urad, moong, soybean, and cotton was significantly below the average area recorded during the corresponding period over the past five years.

The shortfall in these crops could create inflationary pressures, particularly if supplies remain constrained after the harvest. Rice is considered relatively better insulated because the Centre has substantial stocks that can be released to contain any sharp rise in prices.

Lower levels in reservoirs

The rainfall deficit is also reflected in reservoir storage. As of September 3, water levels in about 178 reservoirs monitored across the country stood at around 129.87 billion cubic metres (bcm).

Also Read: Flood here, drought there: A tale of two Indias in monsoon

This was substantially below last year's level of 159.18 bcm and also below the 10-year average of 134.233 bcm, highlighting continued pressure on water availability despite the monsoon's recovery in the latter half of the season.