Modi cabinet reshuffle: Kurian resigns; is Pradhan next in line?

President Droupadi Murmu, on Tuesday (June 23), accepted the resignation of George Kurian from the Union Council of Ministers, adding to the speculations of a reshuffle in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ministerial team being imminent.

The exit of Kurian, the BJP’s only Christian face in the Union Council of Ministers, was expected ever since the BJP chose against renominating him to the Rajya Sabha upon the completion of his term on June 21. The former minister of state for minority affairs said he had sent his resignation to the President on Monday (June 22).

'Extensive reshuffle' on cards?

BJP insiders confirmed Kurian’s departure is a precursor to an “extensive reshuffle” in Modi’s Union Council of Ministers, which could take place before Parliament convenes for its monsoon session next month.

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Ahead of the reshuffle, BJP national president Nitin Nabin is expected to complete an overhaul of the party organisation; a process that gained momentum last month with new state unit chiefs being appointed in Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Tripura.

Sources said the reshaping of the party organisation by Nabin, which is expected to include appointments of several new in-charges, a “sizeable increase” in national office bearers and restructuring of the parliamentary board, will “complement” the Cabinet reshuffle that would follow.

It is pertinent to note that Modi’s Council of Ministers has not seen any changes since its constitution on June 10, 2024. The forthcoming reshuffle also aligns with the template set by the Prime Minister during his previous term, which saw only one extensive mid-term overhaul in July 2021 of the Union Council when 12 ministers were dropped, while as many as 15 new Cabinet ministers (including promotions for seven ministers of state) and 28 ministers of state were sworn in. This was in stark contrast to Modi’s first term in office, which witnessed frequent shuffling of portfolios among existing ministers and periodic induction of new faces.

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BJP sources say the upcoming rejig is expected to follow the 2021 exercise both in scale and in defining the party’s political narrative. Coming eight months before the all-important Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, the 2021 reshuffle had seen Modi apportioning a massive share of the then 77 ministerial berths to OBC (27), SC (12) and ST (seven) faces.

The reshuffle due next month is expected to replicate the same formula to an extent as retaining Uttar Pradesh within the saffron fold, particularly after the party’s poor show in the state in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, remains high on Modi’s electoral priorities. Party sources, however, add that the reshuffle will also signal other outreach plans of the government while also giving a glide-path to the political rhetoric the BJP is expected to push in the build-up to the 2029 Lok Sabha polls and the key Assembly battles that would precede it in the next two years in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and other states.

Expectation among BJP allies

Having already signalled his intent to operationalise women’s reservation with the 2029 Lok Sabha polls, the Prime Minister is expected to ensure a “significant increase” in women’s representation in his Council of Ministers, said sources. Of the 72 members of the current Union council, only seven are women, including Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Women and Child Development Minister Annapurna Devi, who have a Cabinet rank.

There is also an expectation among some BJP’s allies that Modi will increase their share of the ministerial berths. At present, as many as 61 of the 72 members of the Union Council are from the BJP. Parties like Nitish Kumar’s JD-U, Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, HD Deve Gowda’s JD-S, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM and Chirag Paswan’s LJP-RV currently have one Cabinet minister each. Additionally, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD each have one minister of state with independent charge while the JD-U, the TDP, Apna Dal and RPI-A each have one minister of state.

Sources in the government say both JD-U and TDP could see a slight increase in their share of ministerial berths. It remains to be seen whether JD-U chief Nitish Kumar, who was encouraged to cede the Bihar chief minister’s post to the BJP’s Samrat Choudhury earlier this year for his Rajya Sabha debut, gets accommodated as a Cabinet minister despite his visibly declining health.

Shinde’s Sena, which is looking to increase its strength in the Lok Sabha with the recent defection of six Shiv Sena-UBT MPs, is keen on securing at least one Cabinet berth, said sources, while asserting that if its demand is met, the post will not be given to any of the six Sena-UBT MPs who are set to join Shinde’s party.

The political grapevine in Delhi is also abuzz with speculation that Modi would use the upcoming reshuffle to intensify his outreach to Bengal and Bihar, both states where his party’s massive Assembly poll victories continue to befuddle many. As such, new inductees from both these states could feature on the reshuffle list. Sources, however, said the 20 rebel Trinamool Congress (TMC) MPs, who recently announced their merger with the Tripura-based Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI) and their intent to join the NDA, will not be given any ministerial role and the new inductions from Bengal will be from within the existing BJP MPs.

Will Modi retain Pradhan?

While Kurian has already resigned his ministerial post, others in the Union Council who are likely to be replaced include Minister of State for Railways Ravneet Bittu, Minister of State for Road Transport Harsh Malhotra and Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary. While Bittu’s Rajya Sabha term, which expired on June 21, wasn’t renewed by the BJP, sources say he would be drafted in for the party’s poll outreach in Punjab, where elections are due early next year. Malhotra and Chaudhary are expected to be relieved of their ministerial roles as they now head the BJP’s state units in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, respectively.

Ministers like Ashwini Vaishnaw, Prahlad Joshi and Mansukh Mandaviya, who are currently holding charge of multiple ministries, are also expected to be divested of some portfolios to make way for new inductees.

All eyes would also be on whether Modi decides to continue with Dharmendra Pradhan as the Education Minister despite growing calls for the latter’s resignation in the wake of the NEET exam paper leak and other recent controversies connected with his portfolio.

Over the past 12 years of his reign, Modi has built a reputation for turning a deaf ear to demands for resignations of his ministers embroiled in any controversy. Whether that characteristic obstinacy protects Pradhan, or, for that matter Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri, whose name tumbled out of the Jeffrey Epstein file disclosures in the USA, remains to be seen.