India's BRICS tightrope: Navigating China, Trump, and Middle East crises

As India gears up to host the BRICS Summit this weekend (September 12 to 13), the short-term goal is to ensure that it goes off smoothly and that a final declaration acceptable to all is reached.

At a time when fresh strikes between member countries Iran and Saudi Arabia have erupted, India will have a tough time getting a consensus. The success and failure of summits is often judged by the closing declaration, and Indian diplomats will have to be nimble-footed to get these two countries on the same page. Though closing declarations often just remain on paper, yet it is important for the host nation to bring all members on board.

Summit amid two wars

The BRICS Summit is being held amid an economic crisis triggered by two ongoing wars in West Asia and Europe and amid energy disruption driven by problems centred around the Strait of Hormuz, fertiliser shortages affecting agriculture and overall dire global conditions, especially affecting the Global South.

If China and India, two of the big economies in the group, decide to cooperate and set aside their mistrust, BRICS can deliver much more. One will have to wait and watch if this comes through

In recent years, BRICS' political declarations have taken precedence over its economic agenda. But now, more than ever, it is time for BRICS to return to its origins and provide an economic forum for developing countries. India’s aim is to ensure that this time the emphasis is on implementing what has already been stated in several declarations but not delivered. Implementation with a timeline would be the emphasis, a senior official, who did not wish to be named, said. Whether that is done remains to be seen.

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BRICS began in 2001 on an economic and developmental agenda. India, Brazil, China and Russia seemed poised to take off with sustained double-digit growth year on year. By 2006, it took on a diplomatic and political turn, and was raised to summit level in 2009. South Africa joined soon afterwards. Today, the expansion of BRICS to 11 full members, with more and more countries queuing up to join, shows that BRICS has resonance in the Global South. Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia are other full members.

India-China cooperation key

Expansion has created political heft, but it also brings attendant problems. The old BRICS was already diverse, it is even more so as competing rivalries and interests between member states have made BRICS an even more unwieldy grouping. India and China are a case in point before the expansion. Both the founding members had a military confrontation in Ladakh in the summer of 2020. Though things have improved significantly since then, mistrust remains.

If China and India, two of the group's big economies, decide to cooperate and set aside their mistrust, BRICS can deliver much more. One will have to wait and watch if this comes through. But beyond the two Asian rivals, suspicion and mistrust also run high among other members. The UAE has clearly sided with US-Israel against Tehran. Attacks on Saudi Arabia by the Houthis, in response to the US strikes on Iran, has clouded the atmosphere even more.

So, expansion, while bringing political weight, markets and Global South legitimacy, also creates competing interests, rivalries and disagreements.

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Many member states, including India, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and the Global South, are keen on the development and economic opportunities BRICS offers rather than viewing it through a geopolitical lens. India's challenge is to manage BRICS's competing interests without becoming a political punching bag for rivals.

India would like to place its emphasis on flexibility and strategic autonomy and ensure that BRICS remains a coalition of shared interests rather than an ideological bloc.

Looming over BRICS is the overarching presence of US President Donald Trump, who sees the group as a China-led anti-US alliance, working to subvert American influence in the world. Trump is particularly bothered about what he regards as BRICS's attempt to bypass the dollar. He had earlier threatened a 300 per cent tariff on BRICS if any such move was made. The fact is that BRICS is in no position to do so for a long, long time.

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“BRICS cannot be seen as a test of loyalty between Washington and Beijing…the economic agenda and trade relations are important to all members of the group. Most members don’t want an ideological confrontation with the West,” says analyst Saheli Chattaraj, who teaches at Mumbai’s Somaiya Vidyavihar University.

NBD, BRICS's biggest achievement

It is a fact that BRICS began as a challenge to an unequal Western-dominated global order. All BRICS members agree on this and wish for a more representative world order, including reform of the financial system represented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank and a greater voice for the Global South. Yet India, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Indonesia are not for a binary choice. None of them can afford to ignore the US. India needs funds, technology and the lucrative American market to progress. So do several other countries in BRICS.

“BRICS members have no previous experience of working together on security matters. There are several differences amongst themselves largely as a result of their colonial legacies,” says Talmiz Ahmad, former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia

Cracking the Western-dominated financial system is not easy. Debates surrounding de-dollarisation, sanctions and alternative payment mechanisms have been ongoing, but members continue to differ over the pace and scope of these reforms. However, many member states have begun using local currencies, digital payments and alternative payment mechanisms, which will all pick up gradually.

The New Development Bank (NDB) is BRICS's biggest achievement but also illustrates its limitations. It has made a solid start and introduced some useful innovations. But its scale remains modest. Think-tank Carnegie notes that the NDB has a USD 100 billion capital base and remains undercapitalised relative to its ambitions. If the NDB cleans up its structural issues and operates at full speed, it could lend a major helping hand to the Global South.

BRICS trade picks up

Despite criticism of the slow pace of implementation, intra-BRICS trade has picked up. According to the latest Indian government figures, India’s exports to member countries for the financial year 2025-2026 were around USD 82 billion, while the figure for services in the calendar year 2024 was roughly USD 31.3 billion.

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“BRICS members have no previous experience of working together on security matters. There are several differences amongst themselves largely as a result of their colonial legacies,” says Talmiz Ahmad, former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

“But unlike the West that is a subsidiary alliance vis-a-vis the US, the members of BRICS engage with each other on the basis of equality and mutual respect. Given these factors, the record of BRICS over just 20 years of its existence is quite remarkable,” adds Ahmad.

For India, the test of the summit will be less about producing another sweeping declaration than about whether BRICS can move from rhetoric to implementation. If New Delhi can keep the focus on trade, development, finance and practical cooperation while managing the geopolitical differences within the expanded grouping, it would be a modest but meaningful success.