India's monsoon to pause; IMD forecasts dry spell as El Nino intensifies

After nine consecutive days of widespread rainfall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a temporary pause in monsoon activity across large parts of the country. A dry spell is expected between July 10 and July 15 over north, west and central India, including the west coast, as the current low-pressure system weakens and moves away.

Meteorologists also expect rainfall activity to reduce further from mid-July as El Niño strengthens over the equatorial Pacific, making atmospheric conditions less favourable for sustained monsoon rains.

Also read: Southwest monsoon covers entire country, one day behind schedule

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), another major climate driver influencing tropical rainfall, is also projected to shift into a phase that is less supportive of widespread precipitation over the Indian subcontinent.

Deficit rainfall revived

The southwest monsoon, which arrived over Kerala on June 4, completed its advance across the country by July 9. The season, however, has been far from uniform. After a sluggish onset, monsoon activity remained subdued for much of June, resulting in a sharp rainfall deficit across several regions.

The situation changed dramatically in early July as a series of low-pressure systems over central India and the Bay of Bengal revived monsoon circulation, triggering widespread rainfall, floods, landslides and other rain-related incidents in several states.

Also read: Monsoon surges back with July rain, IMD issues red and orange alerts across states

The active spell has substantially improved the country's rainfall statistics.

Kharif cultivation

India's cumulative rainfall deficit, which had widened to 41.53 per cent by the end of June, narrowed significantly to 15.2 per cent by July 8 following the intense wet spell. Satellite observations have also indicated a gradual reduction in cloud cover over the country's core monsoon belt, signalling a weakening of the current active phase.

While the recent rains have provided a much-needed boost to kharif cultivation, the forecast of a prolonged dry spell has raised fresh concerns among farmers. Paddy and other rain-fed crops sown during the recent showers require consistent soil moisture during their initial growth stages, and an extended break in rainfall could stress young plants, particularly in regions with limited irrigation facilities.

Erratic monsoon

Weather experts say the evolving pattern is consistent with the influence of El Nino, a climate phenomenon marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino typically disrupts the southwest monsoon by weakening moisture transport towards the Indian subcontinent, often resulting in erratic rainfall.

Also read: IMD forecasts fresh rain activity as southwest monsoon shows signs of revival

Instead of a steady distribution of rain through the season, El Nino years are generally characterised by alternating periods of intense rainfall and prolonged dry spells, making the monsoon more unpredictable.

Although another active phase of the monsoon is expected later this month, meteorologists caution that the season remains highly volatile. The coming days are expected to be crucial in determining whether the recent revival marks the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a temporary improvement in what is shaping up to be another challenging El Niño year.

Forecast for rest of season

If the forecast holds, states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala could witness below-normal rainfall over the next few days. At the same time, parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Assam may experience a rise in temperatures and heatwave-like conditions as rainfall activity weakens.

With El Nino expected to strengthen further in the coming weeks, weather experts believe the next phase of the monsoon will play a decisive role in shaping India's rainfall pattern for the remainder of the 2026 season.