IMD forecasts fresh rain activity as southwest monsoon shows signs of revival
With rainfall 46% below normal so far, the IMD expects fresh monsoon activity over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and several southern states
After nearly two weeks of weak activity and mounting rainfall deficits across several parts of the country, the southwest monsoon is beginning to show signs of revival.
Weather forecasts suggest rain-bearing systems are likely to strengthen gradually over Central India, offering long-awaited relief to areas that have been waiting for widespread monsoon rains.
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted isolated to scattered rainfall over Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha between June 19 and June 25. This could mark a shift for Central India, which has been among the regions most affected by the current pause in monsoon activity.
Cloud activity gathers pace
According to meteorologists, the increase in cloud cover is important because many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh have continued to experience clear skies and high temperatures.
The IMD has also predicted a series of thunderstorms across the region. West Madhya Pradesh is likely to witness thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and strong winds of 40-50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, from June 21 to June 23. Similar weather conditions are expected over East Madhya Pradesh between June 20 and June 23, and over Vidarbha from June 19 to June 23.
Chhattisgarh is likely to see thunderstorms and lightning between June 19 and June 23, with more intense activity expected on June 22 and 23.
Before widespread rainfall sets in, some areas could experience intense pre-monsoon weather. The IMD has issued a warning for thundersqualls over West Madhya Pradesh on June 19 and 20, with wind speeds of 50-60 kmph and gusts reaching up to 70 kmph.
Madhya Pradesh is already witnessing strong pre-monsoon activity, bringing rain and thunderstorms across several districts. In the last 24 hours, 29 districts recorded rain, ranging from light showers to heavy rainfall. Shivpuri reported the highest wind speed at 46 kmph, while Bhopal and Gwalior recorded winds of 43 kmph.
South to receive showers
The improvement in monsoon conditions is not confined to Central India. Southern states are expected to remain among the wettest parts of the country over the next week.
The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal between June 19 and June 21, while Kerala and Mahe are expected to receive heavy rain from June 19 to June 23.
Heavy rainfall is also likely along the Karnataka coast from June 21 to June 25, while North and South Interior Karnataka may receive intense showers on June 22 and 23. Lakshadweep is expected to witness heavy rainfall on June 21 as well.
The latest forecast indicates that the monsoon, which had appeared to lose momentum after an early surge, could be gearing up for a more widespread revival.
Also read | Southwest Monsoon likely from June 21 in Tamil Nadu; heavy rain alert for 10 districts
Although many parts of north and central India are yet to receive widespread heavy rainfall, increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm activity suggest conditions are becoming more favourable for the monsoon to advance in the coming days.
Rain deficit still bites
The lack of adequate rainfall has raised concerns in the farming sector, with cultivators waiting for enough soil moisture to begin kharif sowing. The rainfall deficit seen so far underlines the extent of the slowdown in monsoon activity.
As of June 20, India had received 45.6 mm of rainfall against the normal 84.4 mm for this stage of the season, leaving the country with a rainfall deficit of 46 per cent, according to the IMD. The “normal” figure refers to the Long Period Average — a benchmark based on rainfall patterns observed over several decades. The shortfall of 46 per cent highlights how significantly the monsoon has lagged so far and points to a season that has begun on a weaker footing than usual.
Even as weather systems show signs of strengthening, the coming days will determine whether the monsoon can make up for the large deficit that has built up since the season began.