Discussion: Why is Manipur on the boil again?

Manipur, already reeling from prolonged ethnic strife, is witnessing yet another surge in violence. Recent clashes in the Jiribam district have left 10 village volunteers dead in a confrontation with security forces. A CRPF soldier was also injured in the exchange. Simultaneously, reports of blockades in Naga-dominated areas and attacks on traditionally peaceful regions have further deepened the crisis, raising urgent questions about governance, accountability, and the prospects for peace.

Jiribam becomes a new flashpoint

The fresh violence stems from an alleged attack by the Arambai Tenggol militia group, which targeted a village, burning homes and killing a woman. Retaliation soon followed, as Kuki-affiliated village volunteers reportedly assaulted a CRPF post, signaling an unusual escalation. Historically, the Kuki groups have accused the state police of bias but viewed central forces as neutral.

This shift in tactics has introduced confusion and heightened mistrust. According to senior journalist Sameer Purkayastha, the clashes coincide with behind-the-scenes negotiations between Kuki and Meitei representatives facilitated by the Union Home Ministry. Purkayastha suggests that vested interests may be orchestrating these violent incidents to derail the peace process, as similar attempts at dialogue have been thwarted in the past. Our panel of experts has discussed the escalating violence in Manipur.

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Recurring patterns of political distraction

Critics have identified a pattern linking violent flare-ups to mounting political pressure on Manipur’s Chief Minister N. Biren Singh. The latest clashes occurred just as the Supreme Court prepared to hear petitions related to leaked audio tapes implicating Singh in the conflict. Dr. Thongkholal Haokip of Jawaharlal Nehru University highlights the use of violence as a diversionary tactic to shift focus away from calls for Singh’s resignation and prosecution.

“The pattern is clear,” Dr. Haokip said, during the discussion. “Whenever accountability looms, violence resurfaces to distract from the issue.” This recurring phenomenon not only undermines peace initiatives but also perpetuates mistrust among Manipur’s ethnic communities.

Spreading violence and expanding conflict

Manipur’s ethnic strife, primarily between the Kuki and Meitei communities, now risks involving the Naga population, further complicating the crisis. Historically peaceful areas like Jiribam have become flashpoints, signaling a troubling expansion of the conflict.

According to Purkayastha, communities that had coexisted peacefully are now being drawn into the violence, raising concerns that provocateurs are intentionally broadening the conflict. This deliberate destabilisation, coupled with longstanding ethnic rivalries, has turned Manipur into a powder keg.

Prof. Prasenjit Biswas of North Eastern Hill University emphasises that the violence’s spread to new areas signals not only an escalation but a failure of governance. He warns that this could have long-term repercussions for the state’s already fragile socio-political fabric.

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Government inaction and criticism

Both the central and state governments have faced sharp criticism for their handling of the crisis. Despite the deployment of security forces, the failure to disarm militias and ensure law and order has allowed the violence to fester. Critics also point to the Chief Minister’s continuation as Home Minister, arguing that his dual role undermines confidence in the state’s leadership.

The central government, too, has been accused of a passive approach. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has yet to visit Manipur since the crisis began over a year ago, and there has been little visible progress on the ground. Attempts to broker peace, such as last month’s meeting between Kuki and Meitei MLAs in New Delhi, have been overshadowed by fresh outbreaks of violence.

The role of economic interests

Beyond ethnic and political tensions, some experts suggest that economic factors may also be fueling the conflict. Resource-rich areas like the Barak Valley, once slated for development projects, have become sites of intensified clashes. Speculation about land acquisition and corporate interests adds a troubling dimension to the violence, suggesting that local conflicts may be manipulated for larger economic gains.

Also Read: Manipur: Kuki-Zo bodies seek investigation into Jiribam gunfight, hill regions witness shutdown

Charting a way forward

Manipur’s path to peace requires immediate and sustained action. Experts stress the need for disarming militias, fostering dialogue among communities, and addressing the root causes of the conflict. Yet, the lack of political will and the central government’s reluctance to treat the issue as more than a law-and-order problem have left the state in limbo.

Dr. Haokip underscores the importance of political decentralization as a long-term solution. He points to the demand for greater autonomy for tribal areas under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution, a move that has been resisted by successive governments in Manipur. “Without political solutions, the cycle of violence will continue,” he warns.

Meanwhile, Prof. Biswas calls for an impartial investigation into the potential nexus between security forces and vigilante groups, which has eroded public trust. “A democratic republic like India must establish the truth and hold all responsible parties accountable,” he says.

Manipur’s future hangs precariously in the balance. With violence spreading to new areas and peace talks repeatedly derailed, the state’s residents are left questioning whether lasting peace is attainable or if the region will spiral further into chaos.

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