US pauses strikes on Iran; is a breakthrough in peace talks likely?

The US has halted strikes on Iran following two weeks of intense clashes between the two countries that had restarted while they were in the midst of a peace deal.

American forces, which had been raining fire on Iran for 13 days, stopped attacking Iran on Friday (July 24), reportedly after US President Donald Trump did not approve the US military’s attack plan for the day.

While Trump had been approving the strikes daily for the past two weeks, he on Friday asked the military to pause the strikes, Axios reported, citing sources familiar with the development.

They’re getting serious: Trump on Iran

As the development came, Trump also hinted that America is in talks with Iran and that the US could go back to striking if the parley falls through.

Also read: Iran war cost USD 37.5 billion, says US Defence Secretary

“We’re talking to [the Iranians] right now. I think they’re getting more and more serious as the days go by. We’re locked and loaded and ready to go, but we’re talking to them,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office.

Trump said he is weighing dual exit strategies – escalation of military strikes and dismantling capabilities faster or securing a settlement through diplomatic means.

Dual exit routes

“There’s a military exit where we just keep going just the way we are, and we can even make it a heavier dose, and it’s knocking out everything. Or there’s a smarter strategy, and that’s you make a deal, and they want to make a deal. I just don’t think they’re ready yet, but they do want to make a deal,” he said.

“You can just keep doing exactly what we're doing and take them apart piece by piece. We could do it in a more rapid fashion, which we might do,” he said, adding, “Or we can negotiate with them, which we're also doing right now.”

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Trump on Friday met with top national security aides to discuss the situation with Iran and whether the administration should maintain the current course or escalate military attacks, according to a US official who spoke to AP on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

On Friday, Trump also said that he was “not in a hurry” to wrap things up because of the approaching elections, in which voters, angry about high food and gasoline prices, could vote his Republican Party out of control of Congress.

‘They cannot have a nuclear weapon’

Amid speculations that the US may launch severe strikes on Iran, Trump said no decision has been reached regarding the same.

Stating that the Iranians want to make a deal and that he would love to listen to them, Trump categorically clarified that the US will not allow them to possess a nuclear weapon.

“They are talking to us right now; they’d love to make a deal. I don’t think they’re ready to. I don’t think it’s time yet, but I’m willing to listen; they cannot have a nuclear weapon,” he said at the annual correspondents’ dinner in Washington DC, as reported by Qatar Tribune.

Also read: The Iran war: Key terms and global flashpoints explained

Trump also claimed that American strikes on Iran have weakened the latter country’s air force and navy hard, with 250 having been felled and “159 boats” at the bottom of the sea.

“They have no radar, they have very few drones left, despite what you see every once in a while, they’re going to set some things up, but they don’t have much left,” he said.

Oman-Iran talks

Tehran has confirmed that there have been no fresh strikes overnight into Saturday (July 25).

The pause in US strikes is an indicator of Trump’s willingness to return to the negotiating table despite its military threats against Iran.

The Axios report said the US decision to halt the strikes comes at a time when an Omani delegation is visiting Iran and working on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Two regional sources have told Axios that Iran and Oman could reach an agreement on the same over the weekend.

Where does Israel stand?

Adding to the uncertainty is the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's planned visit with Trump next week in Washington. Israel, which launched the war alongside the US on February 28, has been notably absent from the renewed American attacks over Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping corridor through which 20 per cent of the world's oil normally flows.

Also read: US carries out strikes on Iran as both sides threaten civilian infrastructure

Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told AP that Israel’s distance from the fresh offensive may be a hint to Iran that it is willing to “limit the conflict.”

Singh says Iranians also understand that the war could become worse if Israel joins it again.

He says it may be a significant step if it is a multiday pause by the US.

“If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant. But it’s hard to know. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?" he said.