Trump 2.0: 5 geopolitical shifts to watch out for

With Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US President scheduled for tonight, his second term in office is all set to reshape global geopolitics, bringing in both continuity and change to it.

His first term in the office was marked by scepticism toward multilateralism and an emphasis on “America First” policies. Over the next four years he is expected to build on the domestic and foreign policies he introduced in his previous tenure.

The Federal takes you through five geopolitical shifts to watch out for during his second term in office.

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Middle East

Israel-Hamas: Taking charge at a crucial juncture, Trump has claimed credit for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, achieved earlier in the month to halt fighting and secure hostage releases.

“This week, we achieved an epic ceasefire agreement as a first step toward lasting peace in the Middle East. And this agreement could only have happened as a result of our historic victory in November,” he was quoted as saying by CNN.

Hamas on Sunday released three Israeli hostages held for 471 days since the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. In exchange, Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners.

US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller also praised the “critical” role of Trump's team in brokering a ceasefire and hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas.

Addressing a press conference following the ceasefire, outgoing US President Joe Biden acknowledged that while the ceasefire deal was developed under his administration, its implementation will largely fall to the next administration, which will be under President-elect Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said on Sunday that if Hamas reneges on the Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal, the United States will support Israel “in doing what it has to do.” He also added that “Hamas will never govern Gaza. That is completely unacceptable.”

The ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and the Gaza-based group Hamas came into effect on Sunday morning, bringing a halt to 15 months of war, which began when Hamas-led fighters invaded southern Israel, killing over 1,200 people and kidnapping 251 hostages during their October 7, 2023, onslaught.

Iran: At the forefront of security concerns for both Israel and the United States is the Iranian issue. While outgoing President Joe Biden pursued a diplomatic approach, his attempts to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement failed. Though Biden did not lift all sanctions imposed by Trump, his overall policy was less stringent, granting the Islamic Republic economic manoeuvrability.

Trump is expected to return to the assertive approach that characterised his previous term. His policy will differ significantly from Biden’s, focusing on exerting force and economic measures to curb Iran. He is likely to reinstate the “maximum pressure” campaign, imposing further sanctions on the regime’s energy, banking, and military sectors.

Trump will work to form a broader international coalition to pressure Iran, using institutions like the UN and collaborating with the Gulf States and Israel.

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Russia-Ukraine

Trump has vowed to resolve the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, saying: “I will end the war in Ukraine, I will stop the chaos in West Asia, and I will prevent World War III from happening — and you have no idea how close we are.”

The US President-elect has pledged a swift end to the fighting, with his team insisting both sides will have to make concessions.

Responding to his call for peace, the Kremlin has said it is open to talks with Trump over Ukraine. However, it has also outlined tough conditions for a ceasefire, demanding Ukraine pull its troops out of four regions in its east and south that Russia claims as its own, said an AFP report.

On the other hand, Trump’s pledge for a quick peace has stoked concern in Kyiv that Ukraine could be forced to accept a deal favourable to Moscow.

Armies of Russia and Ukraine have been trying to secure the upper hand on the battlefield ahead of Trump's return to power. “Ukraine has increased its strikes on Russian energy and military sites hundreds of kilometres behind the front lines. It has also started using Western-supplied rockets on Russian territory, triggering fury in the Kremlin,” said the report.

Meanwhile, Russia's troops are advancing across the eastern Donetsk region, where Ukraine faces manpower and equipment shortages.

Despite Trump's wishes for a quick peace, the two sides appear far apart on what a possible deal could look like.

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China-Taiwan

Taiwan, which China views as its own territory, enjoyed strong support from the first Trump administration, including regularising arms sales which have continued under President Joe Biden. However, Trump unnerved Taiwan on the campaign trail by calling for it to have to pay to be defended.

Like most countries, the United States has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but is bound by law to provide the island with the means to defend itself.

China has ramped up its military pressure against Taiwan over the past five years and refuses to speak to President Lai Ching-te, calling him a “separatist”. He rejects China’s sovereignty claims, and China has rebuffed his offers of talks.

Significantly, Trump’s estranged former vice-president Mike Pence has called on his incoming administration to maintain support for Taiwan against the threat of Chinese annexation during a recent surprise visit to the capital, Taipei. He cautioned that withdrawing or reducing support for Taiwan – as Trump has repeatedly indicated he is considering – would endanger global security and “likely spark a new nuclear arms race” in the Asia-Pacific region.

He said if the Chinese Communist party was able to take control of Taiwan, smaller Asian countries who were fearful of China would no longer feel confidence in US deterrence. “Ultimately nations would feel they have no choice but to develop their own nuclear arsenal,” he said.

Meanwhile, Taiwan said it looks forward to strengthening its cooperation with the new Trump administration, building on the strong and friendly relationship between Taiwan and the US. The two sides aim to work together to maintain peace, stability, and prosperity in the Taiwan Strait and the region, the Taipei Times reported.

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North Korea

North Korea launched multiple short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea on January 15 in what experts said could be a message to Trump’s incoming administration.

Interestingly, North Korea also fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles on November 5 last year, just hours ahead of the US presidential election.

In a year-end party meeting, North Korea declared it would carry out the ‘toughest’ counteraction strategy toward the United States, claiming that military cooperation among South Korea, the US and Japan has expanded into a “military bloc for aggression.”

Throughout the Biden administration, Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has refused to engage in diplomatic talks over his growing nuclear weapons program. Now, all eyes will be on Trump who met Kim Jong-un several times during his first term in office. In 2019, Trump and Kim met at a summit in Vietnam. The meeting was set up in an attempt to end the Korean War and persuade North Korea to remove nukes. However, the summit was cut short as they failed to reach an agreement, which made Kim more hostile to the US.

In the current scenario, North Korea is aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine. Now, it remains to be seen if Trump, who admires Kim, will try to revive personal diplomacy.

In an interview in October last year, Trump claimed to have gotten to know Kim Jong “very well.” This despite the fact that he had previously referred to the leader as a “Little Rocket Man” who would “burn in hell.”

Canada, Greenland

Trump has made waves with some of his foreign policy plans, putting several countries on notice. His ‘America First’ agenda is shaping up to focus on his administration’s ties with several other countries and territories, specifically Greenland, Panama, and Canada.

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His undiplomatic talk in recent days of reclaiming the Panama Canal — and annexing Greenland and even Canada — has left world leaders scrambling to respond. Surprisingly, he did not rule out the use of the military to bring Panama Canal and Greenland under American control, which he argued is of great economic and strategic significance to the United States.

“I’m not going to commit to that. Now it might be that you’ll have to do something,” Trump told reporters at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. He was asked if he would use the military to gain control of both the Panama Canal and Greenland. “We need Greenland for national security purposes,” Trump said at a news conference. “I'm talking about protecting the free world. You look at — you don't even need binoculars — you look outside. You have Chinese ships all over the place. You have Russian ships all over the place. We're not letting that happen. We're not letting it happen.” However, political analysts feel that Trump’s remarks resemble a negotiating tactic more than a genuine threat.

Meanwhile, Trump’s utterances have evoked a sharp reaction with Panama's foreign minister insisting that the sovereignty of its vital canal, which the US handed over a quarter-century ago, is “not negotiable.” The prime minister of Denmark, a NATO member that oversees the autonomous territory of Greenland, has insisted that “Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders.” Similarly, Canada's outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has quipped that there isn't “a snowball’s chance in hell” of a merger with the United States.