H-1B lottery 2027: Fewer applicants, new wage slabs, AI to weed out fraud

The results of the FY2027 H-1B visa lottery, the first conducted under a fundamentally overhauled system, are expected anytime now, with tens of thousands of skilled foreign workers and their employers watching their USCIS online accounts for the outcome.

Three major changes have converged on this lottery cycle simultaneously: a brand-new wage-weighted selection system has replaced the old random draw, a $100,000 supplemental fee has been imposed on petitions filed for beneficiaries outside the US, and registration volumes — already sharply reduced after a 2024 fraud crackdown — are expected to fall a further 30 to 40 per cent.

Higher wages, greater chances

Under the updated framework, a beneficiary's chances in the lottery are now tied directly to the wage level of the offered position. Higher-paid positions receive more entries: Level IV (expert) positions get four entries, Level III (experienced) three, and Level II (qualified) two. Level I (entry) positions fare worst under the new system, with the lowest odds of selection.

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Crucially, these wage levels are not based on an applicant's current salary but on what the sponsoring employer has committed to paying once the H-1B petition is approved, said Indians working in the US currently. This makes the employer's wage offer, rather than the worker's existing earnings, the decisive factor in the lottery.

The $100,000 payment requirement was introduced by a Presidential Proclamation in September 2025 and applies to cap-subject H-1B petitions filed for workers currently outside the US. However, most F-1 students on OPT already inside the country are exempt. That marks a significant carve-out given that they historically account for over half of all H-1B cap petitions.

Collapse in applications

The drop in registrations is substantial, American media reprots indicate. Registrations fell 38 per cent from FY2024 to FY2025 after USCIS implemented beneficiary-centric selection rules that prevented multiple employers from registering the same individual.

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FY2026 saw a further 26.9 per cent decrease to 343,981 total registrations, down from a peak of nearly 800,000 in FY2024, when the system was allegedly gamed on a massive scale.

USCIS upgraded its analytics and cross-system verification to detect overlapping entries and fraudulent submissions after earlier fiscal years saw widespread duplicate registrations that led to multiple lottery rounds and underutilisation of available visas.

AI to spot anomalies

Immigration lawyers quoted by media reports say the agency is now using sophisticated pattern-detection tools to flag anomalies — including wage manipulation — though USCIS has not publicly confirmed the use of AI in its screening process.

USCIS has officially stated it intends to send FY2027 selection notifications by March 31, 2026. Workers cannot check their status independently — notifications go to employers or their immigration attorneys, who must then inform the applicants.

For the roughly 85,000 who will be selected from what is now a much smaller — and arguably cleaner — pool, the next step is filing a full petition from April 1. For the rest, the wait for H-1B Lottery 2028 begins almost immediately.