Azerbaijan Airlines crash: Survivor accounts, fuselage holes fuel theories of Russian strike

Amid investigations into the mysterious crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane near Kazakhstan’s Aqtau on Christmas Day, speculations continue about the role of air defence systems in the tragedy.

The plane, en route from Baku to Grozny in Russia, crashed near Aqtau on Wednesday (December 25), claiming the lives of 38 of the 67 passengers, including at least 16 Russian nationals.

Initially, Azerbaijan Airlines attributed the crash to a bird strike, a claim they later withdrew.

Survivors’ accounts and crash details

Survivors seated in the tail section reported hearing explosions outside the aircraft. The UK’s Telegraph speculated these could have been oxygen tanks detonating mid-air.

After being denied permission to land at Grozny, the aircraft attempted to return to Kazakhstan but crashed 3 km from Aqtau airport.

Also Read: Azerbaijan jet crash: Ukraine official accuses Russia of shooting down plane

Disturbing footage showed the plane struggling to maintain altitude before nosediving into a deserted field.

Missile strike speculation

Military experts, cited in reports by The Wall Street Journal, Euronews, and AFP, suggest the crash may have been caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile or anti-aircraft (AA or Ack Ack) fire.

Evidence includes shrapnel-like holes in the fuselage and damage to the tail, reportedly consistent with claims that the destruction to the aircraft resembles a missile impact.

Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, is a heavily defended city due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and drones have been a staple of the conflict.

Also Read: Azerbaijan plane crash | Bird strikes a big threat to aviation safety

Reports indicate the plane may have been mistaken for an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), as Ukrainian drones were reportedly active in the region weeks before the crash.

Expert assessments

Yury Podolyaka, a Russian military blogger, described the wreckage damage to AFP as resembling an anti-aircraft missile strike.

Matt Borie, from the UK-based Osprey Flight Solutions, cautiously indicated that the wreckage and airspace circumstances suggested the involvement of anti-aircraft weaponry.

Meduza, a Russian media outlet, picked out similarities with previous surface-to-air missile incidents.

Also Read: Azerbaijan Airlines plane with 67 on board crashes in Kazakhstan

Russian response

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urged everyone to exercise caution, insisting that the investigation must conclude before conclusions are drawn.

Kazakhstan’s Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev echoed this sentiment. He asserted that there was no intention to withhold or censor findings.

“Real experts are investigating the incident, and their conclusions will be shared transparently,” Ashimbayev said quoting Russia’s TASS news agency.