After the Strait of Hormuz, the world's next chokepoint could be Gate of Tears

The Strait of Hormuz has been in the news for all the wrong reasons. Iran's closure of the waterway, which usually carries about 20% of the world's oil and gas, has put severe pressure on the global economy.

Now, some analysts are warning that a new flashpoint could emerge: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Houthis, a military group that controls large parts of northern Yemen and is aligned with Iran, entered the war last week, launching missiles towards Israel for the first time since the conflict with Iran began. Yemen sits on one side of the strait, and the Houthis have previously attacked shipping in the Red Sea, causing major disruption in late 2023 and 2024. Bloomberg now reports that Iran has approached the Houthis to prepare for a similar campaign.

Here is why all eyes are turning back to the Houthis, the Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea — and what disruption of a second major chokepoint could mean for the world economy.

What is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is about 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula to the northeast and Eritrea and Djibouti in Africa to the west. Its name literally means "Gate of Tears" in Arabic, a nod to its famously treacherous sailing conditions.

Its importance stems from the fact that, together with the Suez Canal in Egypt, it allows ships to move directly between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Before the Suez Canal opened in the 19th century, ships had to sail all the way around the southern tip of Africa to connect these two points.

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The difference is stark. An oil tanker leaving Saudi Arabia for the Netherlands travels just 12,000 kilometres via the Red Sea, compared with more than 20,000 kilometres going south around Africa. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), that same journey — which takes 34 days the long way — is shortened to just 19 days through the strait.

What passes through it?

In normal times, as much as 14% of global maritime trade passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with fossil fuels making up a major share. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in 2025, about 4.2 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids crossed the strait per day — roughly 5% of global production.

Since most vessels also use the Suez Canal, data from the Suez Canal Authority offers a detailed picture of Red Sea shipping. In the final quarter of 2025, about 40% of the 3,426 ships transiting the canal carried fossil fuels: 1,330 oil tankers and 88 liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels. Bulk and general cargo — typically agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat and soybeans, as well as coal and iron ore — made up another 40%, with container ships accounting for 13%.

Notably, total traffic through the Red Sea has declined considerably since the Houthi attacks of 2023 and 2024, even though those attacks have largely stopped.

Can the strait be closed?

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait cannot be shut entirely. Even at its narrowest, it remains a considerably wide waterway. And unlike the Strait of Hormuz — a dead end with only one exit, ships can still reach the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.

That is little comfort for vessels bound for Asia, which would then have to round Africa anyway, adding weeks to the journey.

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There is a workaround on the oil side: Saudi Arabia had already built an alternative route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, called the East-West Pipeline. It connects Abqaiq in the north to Yanbu on the Red Sea, and has been running near full capacity since the conflict began. But oil leaving from Yanbu and heading to Asia still has to pass through Bab el-Mandeb to avoid the long route south, leaving it exposed.

We've been here before

The most recent Red Sea crisis offers a useful reference point. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) recorded 67 incidents between November 2023 and September 2024. Some ships suffered only minor damage; others faced severe fires, flooding and structural damage after being struck by missiles or drones. Even so, the strait was never fully closed, some ships continued to pass through throughout the crisis.

The mere threat may be enough

The same tactics would likely apply today. For shipping companies, even the threat of attack is often enough to slow or restrict traffic, given the real danger to civilian crew.

Insurance costs can also make the route commercially unviable. During the 2024 crisis, war-risk insurance rose from around 0.6% to as high as 2% of a cargo's value, a jump that effectively prices many operators off the route.

The simultaneous disruption of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb would be an unprecedented shock to global supply chains. The world has dealt with one at a time before. It has not had to manage both at once.