2024 Nobel Prize in Literature: Meet the authors who are tipped to win

For the past couple of years, there has been talk that the Nobel might soon recognise another writer from Ukraine, perhaps the courageous Andrey Kurkov or poet-rock star- soldier Serhiy Zhadan — writers living in, and writing about, the troubled times. Similarly, speculation has been rife about Adonis, who was born Ali Ahmad Said Esber in Syria in 1930, and is one of the most celebrated and influential Arab poets — exiled from Syria and now living in France since 1975. There are a handful of other writers who remain the bookies’ favourite every year: Haruki Murakami, Salman Rushdie, Chilean poet Raúl Zurita, South Korean poet Ko Un, Norwegian writer Karl Ove Knausgård or Kenyan stalwart Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o. However, when it’s time for the Swedish Academy to unveil its choice, we’ve come to expect the unexpected.

Also read: Chinese writer Can Xue bookies’ favourite to win 2024 Nobel Prize in Literature

The committee often eschews obvious candidates, opting instead for those working on the fringes, pushing the boundaries of form and content in a way that leaves even the most astute followers of global literature astounded. In 2022, it picked French writer Annie Ernaux, who is often described as a pioneer of ‘autofiction,” who mines her own life for literature though she herself resists the label. Ernaux’s lightly fictionalised memoirs are intensely personal, raw, and distinctly plainspoken. Last year, Norwegian playwright and novelist Jon Fosse won it ‘for his innovative plays and prose which give voice to the unsayable.’ This year, there seems to be a great possibility of a non-Western writer making the cut. For some time, the Swedish Academy has worked to shed its Eurocentric image, broadening its view to encompass writers from all over. A win for any of the non-Western writers who are the frontrunners this year — whether it’s Can Xue or someone else whose name doesn’t figure anywhere in our list of probable winners — would be a powerful validation of voices that have been historically sidelined by Western literary gatekeepers. Here’s a look at 10 writers who are tipped to win this year:

1. Can Xue (China)

Among the list of hopefuls, Chinese writer Can Xue is arguably the most unconventional—and quite possibly the least understood. Born in 1953, Beijing-based Can Xue grew up during a politically charged era in China, with her family targeted during the Anti-Rightist Campaign, events that would profoundly shape her vision as a writer. Her stories (mostly short fiction) unsettle, drawing readers into surreal worlds that deny easy interpretation or moral takeaways. If Can Xue wins, it would be a momentous victory for avant-garde fiction and for Chinese literature, which has only seen two laureates: Mo Yan in 2012 and Gao Xingjian in 2000. It would also underline the committee’s recent trend of spotlighting literary innovation and non-Western authors. Also, her win would represent a triumph for surrealist, boundary-pushing fiction that challenges what we even consider a ‘story.’

2. Mircea Cărtărescu (Romania)

Romanian writer Mircea Cărtărescu, another strong contender, has long dazzled readers with works like Solenoid and Blinding, which defy genre and blend the poetic with the metaphysical. Cărtărescu, a master of visionary, labyrinthine prose, would make an inspiring Nobel laureate, as he tackles themes of alienation, memory, and metaphysics that resonate globally. The recognition would signal the Nobel committee’s continued appreciation for novel European writers, especially from countries that are less frequently represented. Cărtărescu’s prose, dense with philosophy and dreamlike logic, would encourage a readership willing to engage with profound, complex works. By awarding him the prize, the Nobel committee would make a statement about the power of introspective, imaginative writing as a lens on human experience.

3. Anne Carson (Canada)

Anne Carson, the Canadian poet and essayist, brings a different flavour to this list — a talent for merging genres, bending poetic forms, and mingling classical with contemporary themes. Carson’s works, such as Autobiography of Red and Nox, a novel in verse that reimagines the ancient Greek myth of Geryon and Heracles (Hercules), reinvent poetic structure, blending mythological themes with philosophical reflection. Described as “one of the great pasticheurs,” her poetry — as eclectic as it is erudite — is centred on love and desire, sexual longing and despair. A Nobel win for Carson would honour the hybrid text; it’d be a celebration of the power of poetry to morph, adapt, and speak to contemporary times through ancient fables. By choosing Carson, the Nobel committee could signal a turn toward honoring poetry that dares to innovate rather than adhere to traditional forms.

4. Gerald Murnane (Australia)

Australian writer Gerald Murnane, known for his introspective, almost mystical explorations of memory and place, would make for a special winner. Murnane’s work, including The Plains and Border Districts, examines the interior landscapes of his characters in a style so sparse and unembellished that it becomes mesmerising. A win for Murnane would likely bring international attention to an Australian literary voice largely unknown outside his homeland. His reclusive, quasi-mythic status would also align him with the Nobel’s fascination for literary hermits who produce singular, unclassifiable work, and often live in relative obscurity.

5. Thomas Pynchon (US)

Another perpetual contender who figures on the list almost every year, Thomas Pynchon is one of America’s preeminent novelists and short story writers, whose ‘dense and complex’ works portray ‘human alienation in the chaos of modern society’. Pynchon’s sprawling novels, such as Gravity’s Rainbow and Against the Day, are steeped in conspiracies, pop culture references, and subversive humour that have captivated readers for decades. A Nobel for Pynchon would honour American postmodernism and its impact on contemporary fiction, but it would also be a cheeky nod from the committee, considering Pynchon’s well-known aversion to publicity. Pynchon winning the prize would challenge the conventions of the literary establishment itself, celebrating the man who chose to elude fame while producing work that critiques everything from government secrecy to corporate power.

Also read: Norwegian author Jon Fosse wins the 2023 Nobel Prize in Literature

6. Adonis (Syria-Lebanon)

If the committee wishes to honour poetry this year, few are as deserving as the Syrian-Lebanese poet Adonis (the pen name of Ali Ahmad Said Esber), arguably the most influential poet of the Arab world, who has spent decades pushing against the boundaries of Arabic verse and political repression. Known for combining classical Arabic poetry with modernist influences, Adonis’s work addresses themes of exile, identity, and cultural transformation. Adonis’s Songs of Mihyar the Damascene (1961) is a landmark in Arabic literature that’s compared to T. S. Eliot’s The Waste Land in terms of its engagement with existential and philosophical themes while deconstructing religious and cultural traditions; Mihyar is a mythic figure who represents the poet’s quest for a new Arab identity untethered from the constraints of history. A Nobel for Adonis would be an acknowledgment of the literary innovation of the Middle Eastern region that’s often stereotyped and misunderstood.

7. Edna O’Brien (Ireland)

Irish novelist Edna O’Brien, who passed away at 93 in July, was one of Ireland’s most important literary voices, who wrote about the oppressive lives of Irish women with unparalleled insight and empathy. She captured the heartache and resilience of women for more than six decades, especially through works like The Country Girls trilogy. In later works such as The Light of Evening (2006) and Girl (2019), O’Brien confronts both personal and political traumas. O’Brien winning would highlight the Nobel committee’s appreciation for writers who not only produce brilliant work but also exhibit extraordinary empathy. A Nobel win — if at all the Swedish committee goes for the posthumous — would recognise her contributions to feminist literature and her unflinching portrayals of trauma, loss, and survival, particularly among Irish women.

8. Don DeLillo (US)

If Don DeLillo (87) — the chronicler of American lives whose ‘postmodernist works portray the anomie of an America cosseted by material excess and stupefied by empty mass culture and politics’ were to win — it would be a nod to the cerebral, dystopian style that has defined American fiction in recent decades. Known for novels like White Noise and Underworld, DeLillo’s works explore themes of consumerism, paranoia, and the effects of technology on human life. DeLillo’s prose is cool, observant, and prophetic; he diagnoses the alienation and anxieties of contemporary life. The Nobel committee could make a bold statement by awarding DeLillo; it would recognise the prescience of his work in an era when technology and media shape reality.

9. Hélène Cixous (France)

Hélène Cixous, the French feminist writer and playwright, would bring an intellectual weight to the Nobel list with her groundbreaking contributions to feminist theory. A pioneer of the concept of écriture féminine (‘feminine writing’), she ‘encourages women to reclaim their voices and write from a bodily, non-linear perspective, challenging patriarchal structures inherent in language’. Her groundbreaking essay, The Laugh of the Medusa (1975), was pivotal in shaping contemporary discussions around gender, language, and identity. A Nobel for Cixous would honour literary contributions that shape cultural and academic discourses.

10. László Krasznahorkai (Hungary)

Known for his densely layered prose, Hungarian novelist László Krasznahorkai’s work might appeal to the Nobel committee for its relentless exploration of existential arcs. His novels are famed for their hypnotic sentences that mirror the perpetual inner monologue of his characters. In Krasznahorkai’s vision of literature, stories upend traditional narrative structures, and reality is laced with a surreal sense of impending doom — a style that resonates deeply with the Central European literary tradition and might be seen as an intriguing counterpoint to recent Nobel laureates such as Annie Ernaux and Olga Tokarczuk, who also explore introspective, personal, and existential themes but with different stylistic approaches. Krasznahorkai represents an uncompromising artist, unafraid to challenge readers with a bleak perspective on humanity’s place in a turbulent world.

We are betting on these 10 authors, but there’s a strong chance that, despite the odds, the prize will go to an author who has managed to fly under the radar or someone whose literary work has been quietly revolutionary rather than flamboyantly publicised. Imagine the Nobel going to an obscure, underground poet from Africa or a non-traditional storyteller from Southeast Asia — such a choice would only underline that the Nobel Prize remains committed to honouring writers who enrich global literature in ways that can be subtle but profound. Whether they choose Can Xue’s surrealism, Cărtărescu’s visionary prose, Carson’s genre-blending poetry, or a completely unexpected figure, the Nobel committee is set to make a statement this year. What kind of statement? We will know this today.