The favourites for this year’s Nobel Prize in Literature include Can Xue, Haruki Murakami, and Margaret Atwood; the Swedish Academy to announce the prize on October 10
It’s that time of the year, again. Bookmakers are once again placing bets on who will claim the Nobel Prize in Literature, which will be announced this Thursday (October 10), with odds strongly favouring Chinese avant-garde author Can Xue. Known for her surreal and often challenging works, Can Xue (71) leads the Ladbrokes’ betting list with 10/1 odds. If selected, she would be only the third Chinese writer and 18th woman to receive the prize. Known for her experimental style in books like Love in the New Millennium (2018) and I Live in the Slums: Stories (2020), her work delves into alienation, displacement, and the inexplicable in the human experience.
Born Deng Xiaohua in 1953 in Hunan, Can Xue’s early years were marked by her family’s forced relocation to the countryside during China’s Cultural Revolution. This upheaval, coupled with an education that ended after elementary school, deeply influenced her. Well-known Japanese writer Haruki Murakami, too, is a strong contender, carrying 14/1 odds. Famous for novels like Norwegian Wood, Kafka on the Shore, and 1Q84, Murakami’s blend of magical realism, music, and psychological themes have made him a beloved author worldwide. While Murakami is frequently listed as a favourite for the Nobel, his mainstream appeal and genre-crossing style have perhaps kept him from winning so far.
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Other potential writers in the running
Canadian author Margaret Atwood, with 16/1 odds, is another contender. Known for The Handmaid’s Tale, The Blind Assassin, and numerous collections of poetry, Atwood’s work explores themes of gender, power, and dystopia. Thomas Pynchon, an American author famous for Gravity’s Rainbow and The Crying of Lot 49, also carries 16/1 odds. Pynchon’s dense, conspiratorial narratives dissect American culture and its discontents with a famously elusive style. Argentine César Aira, Australian Gerald Murnane, and Greek writer Ersi Sotiropoulos all share 16/1 odds, bringing an eclectic mix of styles.
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Aira, known for his prolific output of more than 100 books, often resorts to surreal, improvisational storytelling. Murnane’s intense works, like The Plains, explore memory, landscape, and interiority, while Sotiropoulos brings an introspective, lyrical narrative approach in books such as What’s Left of the Night, which explore identity and artistic struggle. Additional names mentioned by Ladbrokes include Anne Carson (20/1), Don DeLillo (25/1), Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o (25/1), and Salman Rushdie (25/1), with Korean novelist Han Kang listed at 33/1.
Swedish Academy’s penchant for a surprise
The Nobel Prize in Literature has been awarded 116 times since 1901, with the Swedish Academy’s selections often veering toward the unexpected. Jon Fosse’s win last year, as well as recent laureates such as Annie Ernaux, Louise Glück, and Abdulrazak Gurnah, highlight the Academy’s preference for authors whose work addresses personal or historical trauma, social justice, or the complexities of memory. These trends suggest the Academy may continue its emphasis on writers who explore individual and collective struggles, broadening the cultural and political scope of literature. However, as illustrated by the controversial award to Peter Handke in 2019, the Swedish Academy does not shy away from contentious choices, making its decisions difficult to predict. Some critics argue that the Academy’s interest in addressing topical issues can sometimes overshadow purely literary merit, while others believe these choices reflect an evolving understanding of the relationship between literature and society.
Also read: Louise Glück, America’s foremost lyric poet, sought the universal through the personal
While speculation grows in the days leading up to the announcement, the Nobel Prize in Literature remains one of the most challenging honours to predict. The Academy’s selection process is notoriously secretive, with nominees’ names and deliberations kept confidential for 50 years. This opacity adds to the suspense over the prize but leaves critics and readers guessing. Bookmakers may set odds, but the Nobel’s history is filled with upsets that defy those predictions, leading to both admiration and occasional controversy. This unpredictability has become a hallmark of the Nobel, transforming each year’s announcement into a moment of literary guessing-game. The question remains: Will the Academy honour an established author like Murakami or Atwood? Or will it surprise with a choice from outside mainstream recognition, as it has with authors like Glück and Gurnah?
