Uttar Pradesh's paradox: BJP sitting pretty despite high rural distress

In the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, rural Uttar Pradesh presents a picture of striking contradictions.

On the one hand, there has been a steady decline in rural incomes across India. In Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second term, rural wage incomes declined by round 5 per cent in real terms, per Periodic Labour Force Surveys.

Worse, agricultural income grew a mere 1 per cent in 2022–23 and non-agricultural rural incomes grew 1.3 per cent. This is over and above the fall in annual income growth rate to the tune of nearly 2 per cent between 2002-03 and 2012-13.

This trend has been confirmed by the recent results of consumption expenditure survey, which too showed a slide in rural consumption, especially farm incomes.

Income, consumption

In particular, the rating agency Nielson showed that the sales growth of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) in rural India in 2023 slipped from 8.6 per cent in the second quarter to 6.4 per cent in the third.

Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data showed rural unemployment hovered around 8 per cent in early 2022, also contributing to a decline in rural incomes.

In short, all relevant indicators show a fall in rural incomes in real terms and an increase in rural distress. This is in the backdrop of Modi’s 2016 promise to double farmers’ income by 2022.

Number of paradoxes

On the other hand, all pre-poll surveys show that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to sweep the parliamentary elections in Uttar Pradesh and win not less than 70 of the total 80 seats.

Similarly, we witness a few paradoxes. Agriculture in India has been growing at a higher 3 per cent per annum in the last three years but agricultural incomes are declining. India’s GDP (gross domestic product) is reportedly entering a high-growth phase but rural distress is on the rise.

How to explain this contradiction, especially in Uttar Pradesh? How intense is the rural distress? Why is there no sign of electoral reflection?

To understand this, The Federal spoke to some people in the rural areas of different regions of Uttar Pradesh. The responses capture the contradictions of rural Uttar Pradesh.

The main manifestation of the rural distress is the fall in incomes, both farmers’ incomes and those of agricultural and other rural workers. How much have the incomes fallen, and why?

Crop losses

Mohammad Salim is a small farmer owning nearly 1 acre in Kajuri village of Mirzapur district. He cultivates around 6 acres of joint family land.

A Left leader, he said farmers in Mirzapur suffered mainly due to unseasonal rains when the mustard and potato crops were ready for harvest. Mustard farmers suffered a nearly 70 per cent loss in yield; potato and wheat farmers suffered a 30-35 per cent yield loss.

On the whole, all sections of the farming community incurred a 30-40 per cent income loss. Combined with cheaper election-eve imports of mustard by the government and the consequent fall in prices, this came as a double whammy for mustard growers in some parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Rajjan Kol, an ex-pradhan from Sehuda Panchayat of Bara and a small peasant, said the crop insurance being pushed as a magic solution by Modi is a joke. He cited a farmer who paid Rs 3,600 as premium and got a cheque for Rs 17 as compensation after crop loss. This scheme only enriches insurance companies, he feels.

Rising prices

Subash Kushwaha, a prominent writer in Hindi, who owns 10 acres in Kushinagar, 70 km away from Gorakhpur, mainly blamed price rise for the fall in farmers’ incomes.

“We used to pay Rs 71 for a litre of diesel to run our pump sets in 2019 and now we pay Rs 92, a 30 per cent increase. We used to pay Rs 75 for a litre of petrol for our vehicles and now we pay Rs 95, a 26 per cent increase. A bag of urea used to cost Rs 266; the government reduced the price by Rs 50 but still a bag of urea now costs Rs 245. Diammonium phosphate prices have doubled from Rs 14 per kg to Rs 28 now, a 100 per cent increase," said Kushwaha.

“In this period, the cost of paddy seeds has increased to Rs 90 per kg from Rs 48 a kg, a 43 per cent increase, and wheat seeds to Rs 60 from Rs 25 a kg, a 140 per cent rise. Agricultural labourers in Poorvanchal (eastern UP) used to get Rs 150-175 wage per day in 2019; now they get Rs 200-250 on an average, a 33 per cent rise. In Kausambhi, women are paid Rs 150 as against Rs 300 to male workers.

"However, the MSP (minimum support price) for paddy in 2019 was Rs 1,800 per quintal and it has now increased to Rs 2,200, a meager 22 per cent rise. For wheat, the MSP increased from Rs 1,840 per quintal to Rs 2,275 for 2024-25, a roughly 23 per cent increase. The increase in cost of production thus far outstrips the increase in returns. This is the main source of farm distress,” Kushwaha added.

Farming not viable

Manoj Dubey, a BJP functionary who cultivates a 1-acre land in Kumbhauna village, 35 km away from Prayagraj in Phulpur taluk, argues that the farmers in his village take the price rise in their stride.

He admits that agriculture is not very remunerative but the free foodgrains the farmers get have more than compensated for the impact of the price rise.

Kushwaha, however, marshals data to claim that farming is not viable.

“Spending Rs 18,000 per acre for paddy crop, farmers earn Rs 28,000 per crop, a profit of Rs10,000. Spending Rs 12,000 per acre for wheat, they earn Rs 27,000 per acre, a net income of Rs 15,000 per crop on an average. Assuming two crops a year, depending on the type of crop, the farmer can earn from Rs 20,000 to Rs 30,000.

"Since an average farm household is indebted to the extent of at least Rs 75,000, they pay Rs 3,000 as interest per year to banks or Rs 4,500-5,000 as interest to private lenders. Deducting this amount, the remaining income is hardly sufficient to meet personal expenses. This is the source of widespread frustration among farmers," Kushwaha said.

What explains the shine

If the farmers are in such acute distress, why do they still vote for the ruling BJP overwhelmingly?

Sakhaa, who manages a small farm of an absentee landowner in Angora village of Mirpur block in Prayagraj rural district, explains that all households in his village get free foodgrains of 5 kg per head per month.

Free toilets have been bult in all households in the village. All houses now get potable water supply. All farmers get Rs 6,000 a year. Kushwaha admitted the same about his village.

Salim said 23,000 PMAY (Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana) houses have been sanctioned in Mirzapur district, with a population of about 30 lakh. In Kushinagar district, with 33 lakh population, 29,581 PMAY houses, both urban and rural, have been sanctioned; of these, 19,900 have been completed and 9,681 are under construction.

For every 10 people who get houses, 40-50 get tokens after registration, sustaining the hope that they would get the houses too in the coming years.

Waning Modi magic

Such politically targeted welfarism brings dividend, and the beneficiaries vote for Modi. Kushwaha, however, clarifies that the ‘Modi magic’ is not at work as intensely now as in 2019, but there is no palpable anger or hatred towards Modi either. People are yet to be convinced of a credible alternative to him.

But there is a catch. This welfarism might backfire at some point. Salim throws light on a hidden facet of PMAY, the corruption involved, and the phenomenon of indirect “beneficiaries”.

According to him, each direct beneficiary is supposed to get Rs 2.67 lakh but actually the intended beneficiary gets only Rs 1.8 lakh or Rs 1.9 lakh, with Rs 60,000-70,000 going as bribe money. This is shared by several village officials and even seniors in the district.

Natthilal Pathak, a farmer from Mathrua with a 1-hectare land, echoed Salim’s view. He said there is no criterion for PMAY benefit. Anyone who can pay up to Rs 50,000 prior bribe can become a beneficiary. So, peasants are selling pieces of their land to build houses.

“Schemes like PMAY have spawned a whole layer of the corrupt, who are identified with the ruling party. Over time, this corruption chain is bound to politically alienate people. The ruling party is thus breeding its own nemesis,” he said.

Opposition not up to it

Why is the Opposition not able to capitalise on the rural distress?

Kushwaha feels serious grassroots organising is done only by the RSS and not by the Congress or even the Samajwadi Party (SP), which has grassroots presence.

“The SP leaving 17 Lok Sabha seats to the Congress has caused lots of heartburn among SP ranks who feel that Congress doesn’t even have credible candidates in 17 constituencies. They expect Akhilesh Yadav to be more active. When the leader himself is lackadaisical, the ranks cannot be expected to exert themselves fully in campaign work,” he added.

Employment crisis

Employment opportunities in rural areas are falling. There is also a new paradoxical dimension to the low work-participation. Thanks to the surplus labour force, those who are doing wage-work are not getting more than 20 days of work in a month locally. But in peak seasons, there is also a labour shortage in many areas. How to explain this anomaly?

Manoj Dubey said the labourers are not coming for work because they get free foodgrains from the government. This view is shared by many affluent farmers who face labour shortage.

Dubey said if there is acute labour shortage during harvest season, farmers pay even Rs 400 a day to get workers.

Kushwaha agreed: “The youth are not keen on doing agricultural work, whether it is wage work or in their own fields. While in the village, they would rather remain idle rather than working in the fields.”

The cultivating farmers are now mostly elders. “People are not coming forward even to do tenancy work. So, the lands of some absentee landowners are lying fallow,” he said.

Job promises

Women have joined SHGs (self-help groups) in large numbers, said Ramnaresh, a small farmer in Kausambhi.

“The Yogi Adityanath government seems to be encouraging women by promising government jobs. If one SHG member gets a job, maybe as a cleaner or distributer for foodgrains to Anganwadis, others nurture illusions,” he added.

Jaiprakash Narain, a veteran Communist leader from Azamgarh and president of the Uttar Pradesh Kisan Sabha, owns a 1-acre land in Aura village.

“Twenty youths from my village go 25-30 km to the city to work," said Narain. "Many are auto drivers and ply from villages to the city. Many run small shops at village crossings. Youth from the most backward castes – Mauryas, Prajapati, Nishads and Chauhans – are seen in good numbers in BJP functions. It's a new phenomenon.”

Migration trends

Another manifestation of the rural distress is the increase in migration.

Manoj Dubey said 40-50 peasant youth from his village have become e-commerce delivery workers in Prayagraj and another 10-15 run Ola taxis. However, after steady expansion over the last decade, these types of employment opportunities are getting saturated of late, and women do not migrate for such jobs.

Youths in Mirzapur and adjoining districts are migrating to southern states these days in large numbers, said Salim. They feel working in southern states is safer and hassle-free compared to Gujarat or Punjab-Haryana though both are equally remunerative.

Kushwaha said the youths are keen to go to Gulf countries. They are ready to work even in Israel, Syria or Iraq. Sakhaa said 30-40 youth from his village have migrated to Saudi Arabia and seven or eight have gone to Italy to work as farm workers there. They earn Rs 80,000-90,000 a month but pay Rs 5-8 lakh to agents who send them there.

Innovation needed

Sakhaa said labourers in his village get MGNREGA work for a wage of Rs 230. They work only for four hours on routine jobs like earthen or canal work. The bureaucrats are not innovative in devising new types of productive works and do not integrate productive social enterprises with the collective MGNREGA labour and provide the needed tech support that can sustain grater earnings for labourers.

The rural distress has not triggered any conventional type of unrest, at least not as yet.

Still, power struggle among upper castes, OBCs and Dalit forces is the main form now. While instances of rapes of Dalit girls by OBC and upper caste men are on the increase, the number of brazen atrocities like massacres and caste killings has come down. It is partly because upper castes feel it is their own government now and so they are confident of exercising their hegemony.

Another explanation is that, after different spells in power by BSP and SP, both Dalits and OBCs are also more powerful now and have greater capacity for resistance. So, there is a new balance of muscle power in the countryside. It is not easy to perpetrate caste killings and get away as the experience of Sahranpur and the rise of the Bhim Army shows.

Advantage SP

Panchayats do not have much power and they are not perceived as important, said Manoj Dubey. But, strangely, the village panchayat pradhan is still the most powerful, most corrupt and most anti-people character, feels Salim.

Communal conflict along religious lines is not severe in the countryside but upper castes are aggressive and their hostility towards Yadavs and other OBCs is simmering. Now that SP is not in power, there is a thaw in the Yadavs versus Dalits contradiction. So, there are indications of a possible social realignment.

Many Dalit personalities like the veteran Awadesh Prasad of Ayodhya, late Ghura Ram’s followers and Mithailal Bharati in Ballia, RK Bhim, Dayaram Pal, Ashok Gautam from Mau and Kamlakant Gautam in Lucknow are gaining prominence in SP.

In some areas, Dalits are shifting towards SP from under the fold of BSP. In the first list, SP has given three Lok Sabha tickets to Dalit candidates, something unthinkable in the past.

Now, the BSP lower ranks have concluded that Mayawati would be a non-player against the BJP power structure and hence the best alternative to take on the aggressive upper castes is to rally under the SP. So, gradually a BJP-SP bipolarity is emerging at the lower levels.

Opinion polls

This new electoral social arithmetic favours SP not only in Ghazipur, Mau and Azamgarh, where the SP won all the 10 assembly seats in 2022, but also in constituencies like Mainpuri and Kannauj in western UP where Jat alienation from the BJP and a Jat-Muslim social convergence can favour the SP.

Thanks to Jat farmers’ resistance to Ajay Mishra Teni, a BJP minister whose son killed agitating farmers by running his car over them, SP is also gaining in Lakhimpur-Kheri and, with a possible switch over by Varun Gandhi, SP’s political stock might go up in Pilibhit too.

Most opinion polls give the BJP 70 out of 80 seats or more. But most of the people The Federal talked to said the SP and Congress would win at least 15-20 seats. The Ram temple and BJP’s advertisement blitz might be additional factors contributing to the overall support for the BJP but they will not bring any significant additional swing of votes in its favour.

However, the social media screaming that BJP got Rs 400 crore from Pakistani companies through electoral bonds could mildly dent the BJP’s image.

Advantage Modi

A decline in the share of agriculture in rural incomes to mere 38 per cent, weather events like heatwaves, floods and hailstorms, cut in subsidies, steep hike in inflation after the Ukraine war, especially after a sharp increase in agricultural input prices during April 2021 to January 2022 are some of the other facets of rural distress.

Still, many feel that the overall crisis is not so severe and there might not be a repeat of the debacle Atal Bihari Vajpayee saw in 2004.

The overall balance might still be in favour of Modi. We will have to wait for June 4 to gauge the real electoral impact of the rural distress in terms of winning numbers.