The Federal Survey | BJP steamrolls Uttar Pradesh; advantage NDA in Assam
The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey predicts BJP’s massive onslaught in the Hindi heartland state and in Assam, it’s upping the ante again along with its ally, AGP
If you win Uttar Pradesh, you win India. The political adage shows how – and why – important Uttar Pradesh is in the larger scheme of things. Unmistakably, then, the BJP juggernaut is on a roll in the state. And in the North East, its steady growth continues.
While the survey in Uttar Pradesh is critical because of the sheer size of the electorate, the Assam survey is equally important since it could be a reflection of the sentiment in the rest of the North-East.
Uttar Pradesh: Modi, Yogi all the way
The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey suggests the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is all to sweep Uttar Pradesh by bagging an astonishing 78 seats (out of 80), besides upping its vote share to 54.33 in the next Lok Sabha elections. Just for the record, the BJP won 62 seats in 2019, with a 49.98 vote share. Interestingly, in 2014, when the Narendra Modi wave was at its peak, it won 71 seats. in 2024, the projected figure is 78!
The INDIA alliance, or a divided opposition, has to be managed with two seats – one each for the Samjwadi Party (SP) and Congress. In 2019, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party bagged five seats and Congress one. Interestingly, 20 percent of voters think Akhilesh is best suited to become the PM among Opposition leaders.
The biggest loser, if one goes by The Federal survey, is Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), which is expected to draw a blank – a massive fall of 10 seats and a vote share dip by 15 percent, from 19.43 to 4.30.
Assam: Steady growth continues for NDA
The BJP has a stranglehold in North East, and nowhere else is it visible than in Assam, a state where the NDA returned to power (in 2021) along with its once-powerful ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). No surprises, the Federal survey says the BJP is set to win 10 seats (out of 14), leaving the Congress with just 4 seats. In 2019, the BJP had won nine, and the Congress 3. (The rest was shared between AIUDF and Independent).
As per The Federal survey, the BJP will up its vote share by 4 percent, 4 percent for the Congress. As with most parties in the NDA alliance, the AGP vote share will plummet to a mere 1.52 from 8.31 in 2019.
The survey suggests the BJP will bag 10 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam, with the Congress bagging the balance four.
Coming up tomorrow
To read the previous survey-related articles and watch the panel discussions, click here.
On Monday, we will cover Tamil Nadu, where a strong DMK is in a pitched battle with a highly ambitious BJP. Watch this space!
