Bengal bypolls: RG Kar rape-murder has zero impact on TMC vote bank

Many thought the massive protests that erupted across West Bengal in the wake of the rape and murder of a trainee doctor at the state-run RG Kar Medical College and Hospital on August 9 would spell the death knell for the TMC in the state. However, turning all speculations on their head, Mamata Banerjee’s party has swept the Assembly bypolls — its first electoral test since the incident — wresting Madarihat seat from the BJP and increasing its margins in most of the other seats.

Amid persistent protests across the state — mainly in state capital Kolkata — the RG Kar case was quickly handed over to the CBI, which has so far made three arrests: Prime accused Sanjay Roy, RG Kar Medical College’s former principal Sandip Ghosh and the then OC of Tala Police Station, Abhijit Mondal.

Three months on, the investigation is still on, while a Kolkata court has started daily hearings into the case even as separate hearings are on in Supreme Court. In the meantime, Bengal’s biggest festival Durga Puja came and went, taking much of the sting off the civil society protests, as did time, the prolonged CBI probe, and its failure to find more perpetrators as people have constantly speculated.

Kolkata does not reflect Bengal

While the TMC government in the state and the police took major beating because of the incident, trainee doctors are still on protest demanding justice for the victim and the assurance of safety for themselves. However, their rage seems to have failed to impress voters in the districts of Bengal, reminding once again that Kolkata does not necessarily reflect sentiments across the state.

The Left, which is largely seen as constantly fuelling the doctors’ protest as well as many of the continuous civil society protests, and the BJP, which was largely behind the massive Nabanna Abhijan protest on August 27, when Kolkata virtually turned into a battleground, failed to make any impression on the voters of the six seats — Naihati, Haroa, Medinipur, Taldangra, Sitai (SC), and Madarihat (ST) — that went to polls, it seems.

Also read: TMC triumphs Bengal by-polls as infighting leaves BJP fractured

Five of these six constituencies are located in South Bengal, a TMC stronghold, while Madarihat, which the BJP had won in 2021, is in the northern part of the state. In fact, this victory marks the first time the TMC has taken control of Madarihat, a key seat in the tea garden belt, signalling a major political shift. The TMC’s vote share surged to 54.05 per cent, while the BJP’s share dropped to 34 per cent, nearly mirroring TMC’s vote share of 34.13 per cent in 2021.

Opposition loses deposit

In Haroa, where over 70 per cent of the electorate belongs to the minority community, the BJP came a distant third and failed to retain its deposit, prompting party leader Suvendu Adhikari to comment: “Minorities don’t vote for the BJP.”

The CPI(M)-led Left Front, which had hoped to capitalise on the RG Kar protests to revive its fortunes, faced a crushing defeat, losing its deposit in Sitai and Madarihat. Similarly, its ally, the CPI(ML), lost its deposit in Naihati, while the All India Secular Front (ISF) lost its deposit in Haroa.

The Congress, led by new state chief Suvankar Sarkar, contested without an alliance with the Left for the first time since 2021 but fared no better, losing deposits in all six constituencies.

TMC’s wins

The Madarihat (ST) seat, previously held by the BJP, marked another significant victory for the TMC. The ruling party’s Jayprakash Toppo won with 79,186 votes, securing a lead of 28,168 votes over BJP’s Rahul Lohar.

In Sitai (SC), TMC’s Sangita Roy won by a margin of 1,30,636 over BJP’s Dipak Kumar Ray, who garnered only 35,348 votes. TMC’s vote share surged to 76 per cent, compared to 49 per cent in the 2021 state elections, while the BJP’s share plummeted from 45 per cent to just 16 per cent.

Also read: RG Kar rape-murder case: Two more witnesses testify before court; Sanjoy Roy brought to court

In Naihati, TMC’s Sanat Dey won with 78,772 votes, defeating BJP’s Rupak Mitra by 49,277 votes. TMC’s vote share increased to 62.97 per cent, up from 50 per cent in 2021, while BJP’s share fell to 23.58 per cent, a significant drop from 38 per cent in 2021.

TMC’s dominance among minorities

In Haroa, TMC’s SK Rabiul Islam won with 1,57,072 votes, maintaining a commanding margin of 1,31,388 votes over Piyarul Islam of the ISF, who secured only 25,684 votes. This result underscores TMC’s dominance among minorities in South Bengal. TMC’s vote share surged to 76.63 per cent, while the ISF managed just 12.53 per cent, compared to 57.34 per cent for the TMC in 2021.

In Medinipur, TMC’s Sujoy Hazra won with 115,104 votes, a margin of 33,996 votes over BJP’s Subhajit Roy, who secured 81,108 votes. TMC’s vote share reached 53.43 per cent, compared to the BJP’s 37.67 per cent, reflecting a similar outcome to 2021, when TMC had 50.72 per cent and the BJP had 40.51 per cent in this tribal-dominated seat.

In Taldangra, TMC’s Falguni Singhababu (98,926 votes) won by a margin of 34,082 votes over BJP’s Ananya Roy Chakraborty (64,844 votes).

Message from Mamata, Abhishek

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, whose astute handling of the doctors’ protests — acceding to some of their demands while taking a tough stand on some — has not escaped attention, expressed her gratitude to the people of the state for their continued support. “I would like to thank and congratulate the ‘Maa, Mati, and Manush’ from the bottom of my heart. Your blessings will help us work for the people in the coming days,” she said in a social media post.

Also read: WB bypolls: It's TMC vs BJP contest again as Left Front loses fizz

TMC national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee congratulated all six TMC candidates for their decisive victories, claiming they had “defied the narratives created by the Zamindars, the media, and a section of the Calcutta High Court to defame Bengal for their own vested interests.”

He also expressed special thanks to the people of Madarihat. “I bow before the people of West Bengal for democratically dismantling the Bangla Birodhis, their fake narratives, and reaffirming their trust in us.”

BJP’s tally in Assembly drops

With this victory, TMC’s tally in the 294-member state assembly rises to 216, further consolidating its position. The BJP’s tally drops to 69, from 77 in 2021.

BJP state president Sukanta Majumdar downplayed the significance of the bypoll results. “Bypoll results cannot serve as a reliable indicator. Whether the people are with the TMC or against them will be reflected in the upcoming assembly elections,” Majumdar said.

The bypolls were held following the resignation of sitting MLAs who had vacated their assembly seats after securing victories in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

(With agency inputs)