Election 2024: Key issues, strengths, weaknesses of TMC, BJP in Bengal

It will be a seven-phase Lok Sabha election in West Bengal once again, the same as in 2019. Along with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, West Bengal will be only the third state to have such an extended election, starting from April 19 and ending on June 1.

Here are the dates for the Lok Sabha 2024 polls in West Bengal:

April 19 / Phase 1: Coochbehar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri

April 26 / Phase 2: Darjeeling, Raiganj, Balurghat

May 7 / Phase 3: Malda North, Malda South, Jangipur, Murshidabad

May 13 / Phase 4: Baharampur, Krishnanagar, Ranaghat, Burdwan East, Burdwan-Durgapur, Asansol, Bolpur, Birbhum

May 20 / Phase 5: Bangaon, Barrackpur, Howrah, Uluberia, Serampore, Hooghly, Arambag

May 25 / Phase 6: Tamluk, Contai, Ghatal, Jhargram, Medinipur, Purulia, Bankura, Bishnupur

June 1 / Phase 7: Dum Dum, Barasat, Basirhat, Joynagar, Mathurapur, Diamond Harbour, Jadavpur, Kolkata South, Kolkata North

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections marked a massive surge of the saffron force in West Bengal, with the BJP coming nearly neck and neck with the TMC, the current ruling party in the state.

The BJP won 18 of the 42 seats in West Bengal, while the TMC won 22. The Congress won two seats, while the Left Front, which ruled the state for a whopping seven consecutive terms, from 1977 to 2011, scored a nought.

The saffron party had only two seats in the 2014 polls while the TMC had 34. The Congress had four while the Left Front had two seats.

Here is a constituency-wise break-up of the seats won by the parties in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls:

1. Cooch Behar: Nisith Pramanik (BJP)

2. Alipurduar: John Barla (BJP)

3. Jalpaiguri: Jayanta Kumar Roy (BJP)

4. Darjeeling: Raju Bista (BJP)

5. Raiganj: Debasree Chaudhury (BJP)

6. Balurghat: Sukanta Majumdar (BJP)

7. Malda North: Khagen Murmu (BJP)

8. Malda South: Abu Hasem Khan Choudhury (Congress)

9. Jangipur: Khalilur Rahman (TMC)

10. Baharampur: Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury (Congress)

11. Murshidabad: Abu Taher Khan (TMC)

12. Krishnanagar: Mahua Moitra (TMC)

13. Ranaghat: Jagannath Sarkar (BJP)

14. Bangaon: Shantanu Thakur (BJP)

15. Barrackpur: Arjun Singh (BJP)

16. Dum Dum: Sougata Ray (TMC)

17. Barasat: Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar (TMC)

18. Basirhat: Nusrat Jahan (TMC)

19. Joynagar: Pratima Mondal (TMC)

20. Mathurapur: CM Jatua (TMC)

21. Diamond Harbour: Abhishek Banerjee (TMC)

22. Jadavpur: Mimi Chakraborty (TMC)

23. Kolkata South: Mala Roy (TMC)

24. Kolkata North: Sudip Bandyopadhyay (TMC)

25. Howrah: Prasun Banerjee (TMC)

26. Uluberia: Sajda Ahmed (TMC)

27. Serampore: Kalyan Banerjee (TMC)

28. Hooghly: Locket Chatterjee (BJP)

29. Arambag: Aparupa Poddar (TMC)

30. Tamluk: Dibyendu Adhikari (TMC)

31. Contai: Sisir Adhikari (TMC)

32. Ghatal: Dipak Adhikari aka Dev (TMC)

33. Jhargram: Kunar Hembram (BJP)

34. Medinipur: Dilip Ghosh (BJP)

35. Purulia: Jyotirmoy Singh Mahato (BJP)

36. Bankura: Subhas Sarkar (BJP)

37. Bishnupur: Saumitra Khan (BJP)

38. Burdwan East: Sunil Kumar Mondal (TMC)

39. Burdwan-Durgapur: SS Ahluwalia (BJP)

40. Asansol: Babul Supriyo (BJP) / Shatrughan Sinha (TMC) in 2022 bypoll

41. Bolpur: Asit Kumar Mal (TMC)

42. Birbhum: Satabdi Roy (TMC)

Key issues in West Bengal for 2024 Lok Sabha polls

Since 2019, there has been a see-saw game between the TMC and the BJP in terms of national-level electoral politics.

While singer Babul Supriyo, who won the Asansol seat in 2014 and 2019 on a BJP ticket, quit as an MP in 2021 and joined the TMC. While he went on to be elected as an MLA of the state in 2022, Shatrughan Sinha won the Anasol seat on a TMC ticket in the bypolls in 2022.

On the other hand, Barrackpur MLA Arjun Singh and Tamluk MLA Dibyendu Adhikari have recently switched over to the BJP. However, Singh had won the Barrackpore seat on a BJP ticket anyway, and joined TMC in 2022.

As the map shows, TMC has lost huge chunks of North Bengal and western parts to the saffron party and has held on to mostly South and Central Bengal. A recent opinion poll by The Federal suggested that the BJP is set to overtake Mamata Banerjee’s party this time. So, what are the key issues that give BJP an advantage and where does TMC get an opportunity to zip past? Here’s a gist:

Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA): The notification of CAA rules has given the TMC an advantage before the polls. While a major section of the urban electorate will vote against the BJP on this, TMC is also counting on the minority votes, which comprise around 30 per cent of the electorate.

However, CAA is likely to give the BJP an advantage in the border areas, with the refugee population backing the BJP on this. Bangaon, where the influential Matua community will back the BJP on CAA, is already with the saffron party. TMC is unlikely to lose its existing seats to the CAA issue.

MGNREGA funds: The TMC has been attacking the BJP over its withholding of central funds to the state since 2021 and is likely to milk the issue further in the run-up to the elections. In February, the TMC government started transferring the dues amounting to Rs 2,700 crore to around 30 lakh MGNREGA workers in the state from its own coffers even as the Centre drags its feet citing fake job cards and other irregularities. While it’s out and out advantage TMC in this issue, the BJP will try to use the corruption card.

Women and safety: While the TMC has two highly popular women-centric social welfare schemes — Kanyashree and Lakshmir Bhandar — to show off, the recent ongoing fiasco in Sandeshkhali has put a huge blot on the women’s safety issue in the state.

With the TMC jacking up the share of Lakshmir Bhandar in the latest Budget for its 3 crore female beneficiaries, and 2.7 crore girl students benefitting from the widely applauded Kanyashree, Bengal’s 3.7 crore female voters have a lot of reasons to vote for Didi (as Mamata Banerjee is fondly called).

However, the BJP is likely to play up the alleged sexual harassment of women in Sandeshkhali by now-suspended TMC leader Sheikh Shahjahan and his henchmen. TMC has already replaced the Lok Sabha candidate for this seat (Basirhat), with sitting MP Nusrat Jahan being given the boot.

Corruption: One of the major grouses against the TMC is local-level corruption, which has been repeatedly highlighted by the BJP, and the Lok Sabha polls will be no exception.

Leadership: Both Mamata Banerjee and Narendra Modi are hugely popular charismatic leaders, one in the state and the other at the national level. Ultimately, it will boil down to a fight between their charismatic persona. In this, Didi has an upper hand in Bengal because she remains hugely popular among women and the subaltern population.

With RSS’s Hindutva propaganda making slow inroads into the nooks and crannies of Bengal, the Modi magic is likely to work up to a certain extent. Otherwise, the state BJP has no leader that comes even miles within the range of Didi’s popularity.

What about Left-Congress?

Since its stunning defeat in the 2011 Assembly polls, the Left Front has steadily gone downhill and now seems to be struggling merely to exist in the state it ruled for three decades. Though it has been trying to regroup by inducting young faces — it still enjoys the support of a section of intelligentsia and the youth — the Congress has only one leader of import in the state in Adhir Chowdhury.

However, these parties are likely to eat into the TMC’s share of minority and “secular” votes, which will give an advantage to the BJP. TMC has boldly decided to go it alone in the Lok Sabha polls by refusing a seat-sharing deal with fellow INDIA bloc constituents, Congress and Left Front. How far that affects Mamata’s party remains to be seen.