Why US trade deal won’t flip India’s crude oil slate overnight
Crude from Russian producers other than Rosneft and Lukoil are not sanctioned, and India is still free to trade with them, point out experts
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian oil” and instead “buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” but there has been no official confirmation of this from the Indian government.
Supply of Russian crude is likely to decline over time, while imports from the US and Venezuela are expected to rise, though any such shift is unlikely to happen overnight. While Russian oil is unlikely to "go away", there will be an "incremental diversification" skewing toward US and Venezuelan crude, "rather than a sharp displacement of Urals,” according to and expert.
Russian crude share dips
India cut its imports of Russian crude after June 2025, following Trump’s threat to impose penalty tariffs, which he later carried out in August by levying an additional 25 per cent duty on Indian goods. But going by global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, India’s import of Russian crude remains strong, though declining.
Also read | Why India-US trade deal raises fears of one-sided concessions
Its data show that India imported 25 per cent of its total crude oil from Russia in December 2025, which stood at 22 per cent in February (tentative), far below the peak of 44 per cent recorded in June.
The following graph maps the monthly crude imports from Russia, the US and Venezuela in terms of total crude imports to present a comparative picture.
As the above graph shows, crude imports from the US have risen, but not significantly, while those from Venezuela dropped to zero from June 2025.
Why Russian oil persists
When asked how the future is likely to unfold, Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s lead research analyst, told The Federal: “I don't think Russian crude is going away. The India-US trade deal does not imply a near-term structural shift in India’s crude slate. Russian barrels remain sticky in next term (about 2 months), while incremental diversification risk skews toward the US and Venezuelan crude rather than a sharp displacement of Urals.”
The reasons are no secret.
The US imposed sanctions only against the top two Russian oil producers and exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, in October 2025. That was after it imposed 25 per cent penalty tariff on India (over and above the reciprocal tariff of 25 per cent). Together, Rosneft and Lukoil produce 49 per cent of Russian crude. Crude from other Russian producers are not sanctioned and India is free to trade with them.
Trump signals supply shift
India’s supply of US crude is far less (its main suppliers are the Middle East countries) because of relatively higher cost and longer shipping time. But going by Trump’s declaration, an upward spike is expected.
Also read | US offers Venezuelan oil to India to cut Russian crude imports
As for Venezuela, it used to be a key supplier of crude to India until Trump imposed sanctions in his first term. The Reliance Industries continued to source the crude by obtaining a waiver for itself from the US but stopped from March 2025 once Trump announced a 25 per cent penalty tariff for buying crude from the South American producer.
According to Reuters, Reliance and Indian oil PSUs had indicated they would consider buying the Venezuelan crude once the US allowed it. Now that Trump has indicated this in his early morning social media post, a gradual spike is expected in this case too.
