Jan 13-18 stock market watch | Q3 results, inflation data, global cues to dictate trends

As major companies prepare to release their Q3FY25 results, investors will closely monitor key players’ performance in the Nifty 50, representing 31.56 per cent of the index.

The earnings season began with TCS, which has set a positive tone for the IT sector. Here’s what to expect from the significant companies scheduled to announce their results:

Reliance Industries: January 16

In Q3 FY24, Reliance Industries Limited reported a consolidated EBITDA of ₹44,678 crore (approximately $5.4 billion), reflecting a 16.7 per cent year-on-year increase and a net profit of ₹19,641 crore (around $2.4 billion), which is a 10.9 per cent rise year-on-year. The oil and gas segment achieved an EBITDA of ₹5,804 crore, up 49.6 per cent year-on-year, while the retail segment saw significant growth due to increased footfalls and store expansions during the festive season.

Also read: TCS Q3 highlights: Strong profit gains, but revenue, headcount take a hit

Despite strong performances in retail and digital services, the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) sector faced pressures from weak refining margins and soft petrochemical prices. As RIL prepares to announce its Q3 FY25 results, analysts expect mixed performance influenced by ongoing trends, with potential sequential improvement in EBITDA driven by Jio and retail earnings but challenges remaining in the O2C sector.

Infosys: January 16

Analysts are projecting a quarter-on-quarter revenue growth of approximately 0.3 per cent to 1 per cent in constant currency terms.

Following a positive trend, the company previously raised its FY25 revenue growth guidance to 3.75 per cent to 4.5 per cent, up from an earlier range of 3 per cent to 4 per cent, reflecting improved expectations amid a challenging market environment.

However, the upcoming quarter is anticipated to be impacted by seasonal furloughs and lower discretionary spending, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors. In Q3 FY24, Infosys reported a consolidated net profit of ₹6,106 crore, down 7 per cent year-on-year from ₹6,586 crore in the same quarter of the previous year. Revenue from operations increased by 1 per cent to ₹38,821 crore, compared to ₹38,318 crore in Q3 FY23.

Wipro: January 17

Wipro's performance is anticipated to reflect ongoing restructuring efforts with modest revenue growth expected from its IT services.

In Q3 FY24, Wipro reported a consolidated net profit of ₹2,700.60 crore, reflecting an 11.9% decline year-on-year from ₹3,065 crore in the same quarter of the previous year. The company's gross revenue was ₹22,221 crore, representing a 1.4 per cent decrease quarter-on-quarter from ₹22,516 crore in Q2 FY24. The IT services segment revenue was approximately $2,656.1 million, down 2.1 per cent sequentially, while the operating margin for IT services was reported at 16.0 per cent, a decrease of 11 basis points from the previous quarter.

HCL Technologies: January 13

HCL Tech is projected to show revenue growth of 4.3 per cent to 6.8 per cent YoY, driven by its software business. Adjusted profit after tax (PAT) is expected to increase by approximately 8.2 per cent YoY. In Q2FY25, HCL Tech reported robust growth in its Products & Platforms segment but faced pressures from wage hikes and furlough impacts.

Tech Mahindra: January 13

Analysts expect mixed results, with potential revenue growth driven by manufacturing and healthcare sectors but muted performance in BFSI (Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance). In Q2FY25, Tech Mahindra's revenue was flat compared to the previous year, indicating challenges in key sectors.

HDFC Life Insurance: January 19

HDFC Life is expected to report stable premium growth amid a challenging insurance market environment. The company showed resilience with improved claims ratios but noted increased competition affecting margins.

Axis Bank: January 19

Axis Bank is projected to show strong NII (net interest income) growth and improvement in asset quality metrics. In Q2FY25, Axis Bank reported significant progress in reducing non-performing assets (NPAs), contributing positively to its stock performance.

Also read: 'Stare at wife' jab | Corporate titans clash over work-life balance

SBI Life Insurance: January 19

Analysts expect SBI Life to report robust premium growth driven by increased demand for protection products. SBI Life's previous quarter performance indicated a strong recovery post-pandemic with improved sales figures.

This week’s IPOs:

1. Laxmi Dental: Rs 698 crore. Jan 13.

2. Kabra Jewels: Rs 40 crore. Jan 15.

3. Rikhav Securities: Rs 89 crore. Jan 15.

4. Landmark Immigration Consultants: Rs 40.32 crore. Jan 16.

5. EMA Partners India: Rs 76 crore. Jan 17.

Macroeconomic indicators

Inflation data

Attention will also be on December’s CPI inflation data set for release on January 13. Economists forecast a decline from November’s 5.48 per cent, which could influence market sentiment ahead of the RBI's policy meeting in February.

Other economic indicators

Additional data releases include:

• WPI inflation data on January 14.

• Balance of trade data on January 15.

• Bank loan and deposit growth numbers on January 17.

Recent trends show that forex reserves have been declining since September 2024, impacting overall economic stability.

Also read: India added a record renewable energy capacity of about 30 GW in 2024

Global economic context

Internationally, US inflation figures are under scrutiny as they will influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Economists predict a moderate increase in US inflation for December from November's 2.7 per cent. Additionally, China's GDP for Q4 2024 is projected at around 5 per cent, indicating a recovery trend that could impact global markets.

This earnings season will be pivotal for investors as they gauge the health of these major corporations against a backdrop of evolving economic conditions both domestically and globally.