India’s China import dependence at 16 per cent, exposes supply chain risks: GTRI
India relies heavily on Chinese imports in key sectors like electronics and pharma, exposing supply chains to geopolitical and trade risks, says GTRI
China accounts for roughly 16 per cent of India’s total imports, though that figure masks a much heavier reliance in key segments. In industrial goods, Chinese suppliers meet about 30.8 per cent of India’s requirements, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
India’s imports rose to USD 774.98 billion in 2025-26, with USD 131.63 billion of that coming from China.
The dependence is uneven and concentrated in sectors central to domestic production. Pharmaceuticals, electronics, and clean energy all rely on a steady flow of inputs, leaving them exposed if supplies are disrupted by geopolitical tensions or commercial shifts.
Concentration in core sectors
GTRI’s analysis shows that around 66 per cent of India’s imports from China, valued at USD 82.6 billion, are concentrated in electronics, machinery, computers and organic chemicals.
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China’s share within these categories is notably high. It accounts for 43 per cent of India’s electronics imports, 40 per cent of machinery and computer imports, and 44 per cent of organic chemicals.
"These are not discretionary purchases but core inputs that feed directly into India's manufacturing ecosystem," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.
Supply chain risks emerge
He said that the Indian industry relies heavily on Chinese inputs such as electronics parts, EV batteries, solar modules, APIs and speciality chemicals.
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"As a result, even as India tries to grow exports, its supply chains remain tied to China. This creates clear risks," he added.
The GTRI suggested that India needs to build domestic capacity in key sectors and diversify supply chains.
Call for diversification strategy
"A practical starting point would be to limit dependence on any single country to below 30 per cent of imports in critical sectors," Srivastava said.
India's trade with China is no longer just a deficit story; it is a production-dependence story.
Exports to China remain stuck below FY2021 levels at USD 19.5 billion, while imports have more than doubled to USD 131.6 billion, pushing the deficit to USD 112.1 billion in 2025-26.
(With agency inputs)