India will grow at 7.5–7.8 pc this fiscal, 6.6–6.9 pc in FY27: Deloitte

India is likely to clock a GDP growth of 7.5 to 7.8 per cent in the current fiscal, supported by festive demand and robust services activity, and moderate to 6.6 to 6.9 per cent in FY27 on a high base and persistent global uncertainties, Deloitte India said on Wednesday (January 14).

Also read: GDP growth projected at 7.4 per cent in FY26 on services, manufacturing boost

For India, 2025 will be remembered as a year of "resilience" in domestic demand, decisive reforms in fiscal, monetary and labour policies, and recalibrations in trade policies.

GDP growth

Real GDP grew 8 per cent in the first half (April to September) of the ongoing 2025-26 fiscal, despite global headwinds such as trade disruptions, policy shifts in advanced economies, and volatile capital flows.

Deloitte India expects a full-year GDP growth at 7.5 to 7.8 per cent for FY2025-26, supported by the festive demand and the activity of robust services.

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Furthermore, growth may moderate to 6.6–6.9 per cent in FY2026-27, reflecting a high base and persistent global uncertainties, Deloitte said in a statement.

Pro-growth policy for the win

Economist and Director at Deloitte, Rumki Majumdar, said, "India's resilience is no accident. It stems from sustained pro-growth policies."

Early in 2025, the visible signals of external risks such as unpredictable trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and slowing growth among major partners prompted decisive action.

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That was when policymakers introduced tax exemptions, policy rate cuts, and GST rationalization to boost demand. Adding to the buoyancy were favourable inflation trends, while trade recalibration through multiple FTAs strengthened exports, according to Deloitte.

Majumdar added, "With demand-side levers largely addressed, policy focus in 2026 will shift towards supply-side reforms, focusing on MSMEs, and developing tier-2 and tier-3 cities as new engines of growth."

Trade diplomacy

Trade diplomacy also saw a major shift, where India signed key agreements with the UK, New Zealand, Oman, and initiated a negotiation with Israel, while the EFTA deal went operational in 2025. All these moves were aimed at diversifying exports.

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According to Majumdar’s observations, "These partnerships unlock manufacturing opportunities and expand India's services footprint beyond the US, while reinforcing investor confidence and paving the way for increased FDI, which remains critical for financing infrastructure and industrial expansion."

India also deepened engagement with emerging economies across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, aligning with the broader Global South trade and investment shift.

However, Majumdar said external risks remain elevated, though their full impact may not materialize in FY2025-26, but in FY2026-27, growth may moderate reflecting a high base and persistent global uncertainties.

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"We anticipate the India-US trade deal will conclude by the end of this fiscal, which should revive foreign investment and stabilise the currency," she said.

(With agency inputs)