As TMC crumbles, what's next for Mamata and the state forces she fought over the years?

The disappearance of the Mamata Banerjee-controlled economic pie in the wake of the Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) rout in the April Assembly elections in West Bengal has revealed the fault lines within the party that are now threatening to split it vertically.

Bereft of any strong ideological moorings, the TMC’s stay in power in the state since its historic win in 2011 was largely dependent on the firebrand supremo's shrewd dispensation of patronage — doling out privileges and economic benefits to loyalists in exchange for unquestioning allegiance.

TMC-era corruption brought Mamata's downfall

Mamata also gave her supporters a free hand to make money through shady land deals, building constructions, educational institutions, hospitals, business enterprises and a wide range of other sources.

Also read: TMC’s double coup and Mamata’s silence: Martyrs’ Day will be her last test

The rampant corruption during the TMC's decade-and-a-half rule became a key reason for her defeat in the Assembly elections that saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wrest power in Bengal for the first time.

TMC's worst came after May 4 debacle

While electoral debacles are not uncommon, what has made Mamata's ouster exceptional is that it has loosened the political glue that kept her and the TMC groupings together.

Weeks following the May 4 rout, several MLAs and MPs of the party have aired their hell-bent desire to break free from Mamata's control. While the party's newly elected state legislators have managed to do it, the MPs in both Houses of Parliament are still jostling over the issue.

Party implodes in Kolkata, Delhi

In the Assembly, 58 of the 80 TMC MLAs elected in the 2026 elections supported their expelled colleague Ritabrata Banerjee as the leader of the opposition in place of Mamata's nominee, Sovandeb Chattopadhyay. Ritabrata has now claimed that the number of MLAs supporting them has gone up to 64 and called the faction the "real TMC".

In Parliament, too, the TMC is witnessing dark clouds. Nineteen of its members in the Lok Sabha have intended to join the ruling National Democratic Alliance as a new bloc. They have claimed that more were waiting to join them. The party has 28 MPs in the Lok Sabha (one passed away soon after the 2024 general elections).

Rebel MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, who has claimed herself to be the chief whip of the party despite getting replaced by Kalyan Banerjee after the election results, was present along with others, such as Satabdi Roy in recent meetings in New Delhi, where Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari was also in attendance.

Also read: Mamata’s renewed bonhomie with Gandhis sparks rumours of TMC-Congress merger

These meetings happened around the same time when Mamata and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, also an MP, were in the national capital to take part in a key meeting of the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.

Those who decided against jumping ship, including Mahua Moitra, Saugata Roy and Kirti Azad, counter-claimed that most TMC parliamentarians turned down the rebels' offer and decided to stay under Mamata's wings.

In the Rajya Sabha, too, repercussions were felt as quite a few TMC members quit. They include, among others, senior politicians Sukhendu Sekhar Roy and Sushmita Dev.

The rebel parliamentarians who want to join the NDA as a separate group are also asking that they be recognised as the official TMC.

Hectic attempts are on between the rebels and the loyalists to win over more MPs. The rebels need the support of 21 party parliamentarians to be recognised as the official group and demand the TMC's flag and electoral symbol (two grass flowers).

Many TMC parliamentarians are scheduled to return to New Delhi on Monday (June 15) for a meeting in Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla’s chamber to decide which of the two groups will be recognised as the official TMC.

How will TMC's fall affect other parties?

The unravelling of the TMC has also raised questions on how it will impact the BJP as well as the Left and the Congress, forces that were once dominant in Bengal politics but got marginalised with Mamata's rise.

The BJP is likely to be the biggest gainer from the crisis in the TMC. The saffron party already made history by being the first right-wing party to win an Assembly election in Bengal, but the 2026 election was widely seen as an anti-Mamata verdict. Now, as the TMC crumbles, the saffron party will be the biggest beneficiary.

The BJP, which is keen to start with a clean slate in Bengal, has refused to open its doors for the entry of turncoats, i.e., several TMC members who are allegedly eyeing to shift base.

“But this has not prevented TMC supporters from gathering regularly outside the BJP party offices as they want to be seen as part of the ruling clique,” says Goutam Sarkar, Associate Editor of Uttarbanga Sambad, the largest and most influential Bengali daily in North Bengal.

But the BJP will not mind if a large section of the party MPs joins the NDA. This will not only increase the Narendra Modi government’s support in passing crucial bills in Parliament, but also ensure the TMC weakens further and also closes the possibility of the party rebels joining the Congress or the Left parties.

Congress and CPI(M)

It is perhaps too early to predict the revival of the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in the wake of the TMC's crisis.

Mamata had launched her TMC in 1998 after being expelled from the Congress. She then made a remarkable comeback, first sidelining the Congress to emerge as the major opposition force in the state and then ending the CPI(M)-led Left Front’s 34-year rule in Bengal.

Also read: ‘Till last month these guys were begging to meet Abhishek’: Mahua Moitra slams TMC rebels

As Left cadres faced challenges with the change of guard in 2011 in the face of the TMC's onslaught, several took shelter in the BJP and contributed to its rise as a viable option to Mamata.

Though the pro-Hindu sections in the party may sympathise with the BJP, observers think it will be difficult for most party supporters to join the BJP in numbers. Therefore, they will either stay with the CPI(M) and other Left parties or altogether stay away from active politics.

The TMC's slump, nevertheless, would see a vacuum in state politics which parties such as the CPI(M) and Congress would aim to fill and emerge among the major opposition forces in districts where they have a substantial presence.

In this election, we saw how the TMC's minority vote banks cracked in key districts such as Murshidabad, where the Congress, CPI(M) and even the newly formed Aam Janata Unnayan Party gained.

A meaningful revival of the CPM or the Congress in the state will, however, need a robust and committed network of workers that neither party seem to have at this juncture.

What's next for Mamata?

While Mamata’s biggest challenge will be to keep her flock together and tide over the ongoing crisis, without the largesse to share, she will find it difficult to attract supporters.

However, political leaders often find ways to bounce back from difficult situations. This may be true for Mamata, known for her combative politics, too.

'Can't write off Mamata yet'

Kolkata-based political analyst Sudipta Sengupta agreed. “It’s not prudent to write off Mamata. She is a streetfighter who has the ability to bounce back,” he told this writer.

Despite the current setback, Mamata remains a popular leader. Her relevance in the coming days in the state’s political theatre will depend largely on how her successor, Adhikari, runs the state.

Also read: What went wrong for Mamata Banerjee and what lies ahead for TMC? | Capital Beat

Once the initial euphoria fades, the BJP will have to focus on important issues such as the economic revival of Bengal and the creation of jobs for the growing youth force.

If the BJP fails to deliver on its promise and meet the expectations of the Bengali voters, it may pave the way for the return of Didi, as Mamata is fondly called by her supporters.

But for that to happen, she will first have to clean up the political mess that has now piled up at her doorstep. With herself not being a member of any elected House at the moment, the job is even more challenging.