
Quad’s future uncertain as key allies India, US mend fences with China
Quad’s primary agenda to stop Chinese aggression in Indo-Pacific is at stake amid fresh attempts by both India and US to improve ties with China
The meeting of the Quad foreign ministers in Washington early this week has once again brought the focus back on China and its looming presence in the Indo-Pacific.
But how they deal with China in the near future, has not been made very clear.
India’s faith in Trump govt
Hosting the foreign ministers of India, Australia and Japan in one of his first acts, the newly-appointed US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, indicated that Quad will continue to get priority in the new US administration under Donald Trump.
It was “significant that the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting took place within hours of the inauguration of the Trump Administration,” India’s Minister of External Affairs, S Jaishankar, who attended the meeting said.
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He pointed out, “This underlines the priority it has in the foreign policy of its member states… The meeting today sends a clear message that in an uncertain and volatile world, the Quad will continue to be a force for global good.”
Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Japan’s Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi also attended the meeting.
Does Trump want to mend fences with China?
However, analysts are not sure if US President Trump will pursue a similar policy of countering China as his predecessor Joe Biden or deal differently with the only country that poses a challenge to America’s global hegemony.
Trump has already signalled a different approach to China.
He invited his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to his inauguration. Though Xi did not attend the ceremony, he sent his envoy and Vice President Han Zheng to the swearing-in ceremony.
While Trump broke from tradition in inviting Xi to his inaugural, China too, broke tradition from sending its ambassador in Washington to attend the ceremony.
Also read: Quad nations renew pledge to work for stable, prosperous Indo-Pacific
Trump and Xi have both stressed that they want to reset bilateral relations. Though, it is not clear at this stage what it means and how their ties will pan out in the coming days.
Call for free, open Indo-Pacific
At the end of the meeting, the Quad foreign ministers reiterated their shared commitment to strengthening a free and open Indo-Pacific where “the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended.”
The foreign ministers added, “We also strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion.”
They said they also look forward to advancing the work of the Quad and will meet on a regular basis to prepare for the next Quad Leaders’ Summit hosted by India.
Modi-Trump meet likely during Quad 2025
While India was supposed to host the Quad leaders’ Summit last year, scheduling problems and the fact it was Biden’s last Quad Summit led members to agree to have it in Delaware in the US.
With India set to host the Quad Summit 2025, it would also bring Trump to the country. A bilateral meeting between the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the US president is likely to be held during the summit.
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Jaishankar said, “The meeting today sends a clear message that in an uncertain and volatile world, the Quad will continue to be a force for global good.”
But his visit to the US comes at a time when questions have been raised in some quarters about the future of Indo-US relations.
Is India trying to woo ‘upset’ Trump?
Modi and Trump enjoyed a good rapport in the past and the Indian prime minister congratulated him over telephone on his victory in November.
But unlike Xi and the leaders of Italy and Argentina, Modi did not get an invitation for his inaugural.
This led to intense speculation in diplomatic circles about the possibility of Trump being miffed with the Indian prime minister for some unexplained reason.
In that context Jaishankar’s visits to Washington in recent weeks and engagement with key members of the Trump administration was seen as an attempt at rebuilding strong ties with the new team and clear any misgivings it may have.
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Jaishankar who attended Trump’s inaugural met Rubio on the sideline of the Quad and was assured about the US’s commitment to maintain strong relations with India.
However, it is not clear how the two sides use the Quad platform to deal with China as both the US and India are also keen on improving ties with China.
Mystery over Trump’s policy on China
American analysts said it was unclear what policy Trump will adopt on China.
“He admires the autocratic Mr Xi, and sees China mainly through the lens of economic negotiations,” said New York Times columnist Andrew Wong.
He argued that Trump’s billionaire advisers like Elon Musk, would like to maintain and expand business dealings with China. But his top foreign policy officials and aides like Rubio, who are China hawks, assert the US must constrain China across many dimensions by using the entire range of security and economic tools.
These two groups are likely to play an important role in Trump’s China policy and that is why many analysts are not sure about the policy that is likely to be pursued in Washington’s future dealing with Beijing.
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Trump, Xi bonhomie
At a time when Rubio held the Quad foreign ministers meeting, the Chinese vice president was being hosted by his American counterpart JD Vance.
Han also met members of the American business community, including Tesla CEO and close Trump associate Musk, to improve trade and understanding between the two sides.
Musk is widely seen by Beijing as more sympathetic to its interests than others in the Trump administration.
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Han’s visit followed a phone call between Xi and Trump. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry readout, Xi said, “We both attach great importance to our interactions, both hope for a good start of the China-US relationship during the new US presidency.”
Trump responded in his social media platform Truth Social by saying he had a “very good” phone call with Xi.
Does Quad have a future?
The Quad, which was created in 2007 in the wake of the tsunami to deal collectively with future challenges of natural disaster, gradually turned out to be a security dialogue platform to deal with China’s aggressive rise in the Indo-Pacific.
However, at a time when India and the US as well as Australia and Japan are all trying to rework their strategy to deal with China, which is also a major trade partner of all four countries, questions are being raised on Quad’s future role.
India has been as concerned as others over China’s aggressive policies, especially since it faced it along the border and was locked in a face-off with Chinese troops in Eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) since May 2020.
Also read: Quad here to stay; free, inclusive Indo-Pacific our priority: PM Modi
Since last year the two sides have got into an agreement on withdrawal of troops and positioning them in their original position to bring down the temperature at the border.
Challenges of India’s balancing act
Now the leadership of both India and China are also looking for ways to maintain normalcy at the border and improve their overall relations.
India is keen to maintain and develop its strategic autonomy by maintaining good relations with the US on one hand and with Russia and China on the other.
Therefore, the role it is expected to play in the Quad in future can pose a challenge to it.
This may be even more difficult under Trump’s presidency and his unpredictable policies as they can change at short notice and put partners like India, in a tight spot.
How India deals with the challenge that the US and China pose in the coming days, will be keenly watched by experts in the region and far beyond.