Nitish Kumar abandons CM throne for Rajya Sabha debut: Is this his final 'somersault'?

Just over three months after he returned as chief minister of Bihar for a record 10th term on the back of a brute majority, Nitish Kumar has made another one of his famous somersaults. This time round, though, the Janata Dal-United or JD(U) chief isn’t jumping alliances but legislatures.

Also read: Nitish Kumar to resign as Bihar CM, set to join Rajya Sabha amid protests

In an unexpected turn of events, Nitish filed his nomination papers on Thursday (March 5) for the ensuing Rajya Sabha polls, making it clear that he was set to leave the Bihar Legislative Council for the Upper House of Parliament. In the process, the veteran will forsake the chief minister’s chair that he has fiercely held on to for nearly two decades with unapologetic ideological promiscuity, political guile and an unparalleled sense of self-preservation.

Nitish — Between Patna and Delhi

With his debut Rajya Sabha term slated to begin from April 10, Nitish won’t be seen in Parliament in the Budget Session, which resumes on March 9 and concludes on April 2. This would give the Bihar chief minister enough time to set his personal and party affairs in order back in Patna, where the process of redrawing the contours of power in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government has begun with the JD(U) chief filing his nomination for the Rajya Sabha polls.

Many have speculated that Nitish’s decision to move to the RS is meant to be a 'dignified exit' that would prevent him from embarrassing himself in public due to his visibly deteriorating health, which has made him prone to humiliating gaffes in public. Party leaders close to the CM, however, dismiss these speculations as “propaganda”.

What is expected to dominate political discourse, in the meantime, though, is what necessitated Nitish’s sudden move and what follows next, not just for him but for his party and Bihar. Up until Wednesday (March 4) morning, it was widely anticipated that Nitish would nominate his son, Nishant Kumar, as the JD(U) candidate for the Upper House polls while he continues as CM at least for the time being.

Nitish’s confidante of many years and senior Bihar minister Shrawon Kumar had indicated as much a day earlier during an interaction with the media in Patna.

Also read: Bihar Rajya Sabha battle: NDA set for clean sweep as Opposition tally shrinks

By Wednesday afternoon, the picture had changed completely. Besides Shrawon, senior JD(U) leaders such as Bijendra Prasad Yadav, Vijay Kumar Chaudhary, Ashok Choudhary, the party’s national working president Sanjay Kumar Jha and Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh ‘Lalan’ were summoned to Nitish’s official 1, Aney Marg, residence as reports about the chief minister finally letting go of his throne began circulating.

Even Nishant's plea didn't move Nitish

A Nitish confidante who was present at the meeting late Wednesday evening told The Federal that while “fervent appeals were made by some of us” for him to “reconsider his decision in the interest of the party and the state”, he remained adamant.

Nishant, who was also present at the meeting, is also learnt to have urged his father in vain against resigning as the CM.

The Nitish confidante said, “It came as a shock to most of us because there had been no such discussion,” while hinting that the JD(U) chief seems to have decided to move to Rajya Sabha at the behest of ally BJP’s top leadership. “Dilli waalon se baat hua (he spoke to the leaders in Delhi)”, the party leader said, refusing to identify who in New Delhi Nitish had spoken to but confirming that there had been talks with “leaders from the BJP”.

By Thursday morning, as it became clear that Nitish was ready to leave Patna for Delhi, his loyalists began protesting in front of 1, Aney Marg, openly alleging a “conspiracy” against him. Nitish sought to douse the row with a tweet, but his rationale for moving to the Rajya Sabha so soon after an electoral victory that was, more than anything else, a mandate for his continuation in office, convinced few.

Nitish Kumar's parliament dream

Nitish claimed that having served as a member of both, the Bihar Legislative Assembly and the Legislative Council, he had always hoped to have the rare distinction of also being a member of both Houses of Parliament — he had previously been elected to the Lok Sabha for six terms between 1989 and 2004 — and was, thus, fulfilling that dream now by seeking a Rajya Sabha term.

Also read: Congress picks new faces for RS polls: Rahul Gandhi's 'social justice' ploy at work?

Many have speculated that Nitish’s decision to move to the Rajya Sabha is meant to be a “dignified exit” that would prevent him from embarrassing himself in public due to his visibly deteriorating health, which has made him prone to humiliating gaffes in public.

Party leaders close to the CM, however, dismiss these speculations as “propaganda”.

“If he wants to escape the public eye because of his health, will he move to Delhi where the entire media is present; all this is propaganda by vested interests,” a senior JD(U) minister in the Bihar cabinet told The Federal, while admitting that the chief minister was in a “fragile mental state”, which was “being exploited by some people”.

Whatever the sequence of events around Nitish’s decision to leave the seat of power in Patna may be, his decision is expected to trigger a major churn in Bihar politics sooner than later.

Nitish's loosening grip in Bihar

It is not that the possibility of Nitish leaving office mid-term was unanticipated. Quite the contrary. If his deteriorating health had triggered speculations to this effect even during last year’s Bihar poll campaign, what had made an early exit a near certainty for Nitish was the fact that the BJP had ‘allowed’ him to return as the state’s chief executive despite the JD(U) winning 85 seats against the BJP’s 89 seats, and finishing behind its ally for a second consecutive election.

The next big hint had come soon after Nitish formed his new cabinet. Not only was he unable to fend off the BJP’s demand for two deputy CM berths but, in quick succession, he had to first part ways with the home portfolio that he had always kept with himself as CM and then relinquish his party’s claim on the post of the Assembly Speaker too.

This showed that the wily Nitish no longer had either the political acuity or the numerical strength in the Assembly to checkmate the BJP’s forward march in a state where the saffron party has never made a secret about its expansion plans. That the BJP has wanted to wrest the CM’s post for one of its own was talked about even before the results for last year’s Bihar polls were declared.

What next in Bihar?

As such, with Nitish agreeing to move to New Delhi, speculations have already begun about the balance of power in Patna decisively tilting in the saffron party’s favour. Sundry names of potential BJP CMs, ranging from current deputy chief ministers Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha to Union ministers Nityanand Rai, Giriraj Singh and three-term Digha MLA Sanjiv Chaurasiya, are already being floated.

Also read: Bharat Ratna or political exit? JD(U) smells a trap for Nitish Kumar

A change of guard in Patna is also expected to be followed up with an overhaul of the state cabinet, where again the stake the JD(U) would retain is a subject of intense speculation. Many believe that if the BJP succeeds in getting its first Bihar CM, Nitish would try his best to get two deputy chief ministers from his party — a role reversal of his current dispensation — with one of them being his son, Nishant Kumar, who is widely expected to now fill up Nitish’s soon-to-be vacated seat in the Bihar Legislative Council.

Speculations that Kumar’s exit is expected to embolden Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan to seek a deputy CM berth for his party have already begun in Patna.

Nitish, a dynast?

Nishant’s political debut will also rob Nitish of the one distinguishing mark he has always flaunted proudly when comparing himself with his friend-turned-foe and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav — that despite a similar trajectory in public life, he, unlike Lalu, didn’t promote a dynastic line.

Besides, with his indifferent health, it remains to be seen how much of a mentor Nitish is able to be to his son, who may or may not succeed in maintaining the JD(U) as the formidable electoral force that the party has been under the stewardship of his father.

Also read: Hijab-pulling row puts spotlight back on Nitish Kumar’s public conduct, health

With Nitish bowing out, it would also be interesting to see just how much influence the BJP will allow him to wield in the Bihar government while he settles into his 'margdarshak' (mentor) role — unless, of course, the master of somersaults still has some tricks up his sleeve.