Karnataka MLC polls: DK Shivakumar calls the shots, leaves BJP, JD-S in tatters

After the Congress swept the just concluded Karnataka Legislative Council elections, attention has turned to both the ruling party and the opposition — allies Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (Secular) — for different reasons. While the Grand-Old Party’s victory is being seen as the moment of Chief Minister DK Shivakumar stamping his authority on the organisation, the opposition’s poor show has seen questions mounting over their leadership, organisational grip, and internal cohesion.

Also read: Cross-voting in MLC polls in Karnataka: BJP president summons Karnataka party chief

The Congress won five out of seven seats in the Upper House that went to the polls, one even unexpectedly, while the BJP won two. The JD(S) failed to win its account.

A victory for CM Shivakumar

For the ruling party, the outcome is seen as a major victory for Shivakumar, who took over as the new chief minister weeks ago. The recent disagreements in the new cabinet, with some ministers expressing dissent over the distribution of portfolios and the matter reaching the high command, had created moments of discomfort for the new CM. The Legislative Council results would reassure the state leadership.

The Legislative Council elections have now created worrying signs for the opposition, instead. It is being asked whether the BJP and the JD(S) are able to keep their respective legislators united, particularly in the wake of cross-voting happened in Thursday’s (June 18) polling in Vidhana Soudha (state legislative building).

The parties’ numerical strength in the Assembly had made the outcome of six of the seven council seats a foregone conclusion. The Congress, which has 134 members, was comfortably placed to bag four seats. The BJP, which has 63 seats (62 plus the independent who merged with the party), was expected to win two. However, the climax deepened over the contest for the seventh seat.

Congress's risk paid off

The Congress took a chance by fielding its fifth candidate. Had the decision backfired, it would have been seen as a setback for Shivakumar who personally was in favour of going for the fifth seat. A victory, on the other hand, which indeed came, boosted the CM’s image in the party as a leader who can manage legislators, attract additional support and deliver under pressure.

For observers, the victory in the fifth seat, which came for Vinay Karthik Prakash, a close aide of Shivakumar, also served as a message to former chief minister Siddaramaiah and even the high command. The all-win record in the council elections saw the CM reinforcing himself as the one who has complete control over his legislators and understands the complexities of electoral arithmetic well. It was an emphatic turnaround of sorts for a leader who had been witnessing undercurrents of dissatisfied voices in his government.

Also read: Congress dominates Karnataka MLC polls amid cross-voting claims; opposition stunned

It was often suspected that, despite his exit, Siddaramaiah’s shadow would loom over his successor’s government, thanks to his AHINDA base. Shivakumar convinced B S Shivanna (popularly called Shivanna Malavalli), known to be close to Siddaramaiah, to be one of the five candidates.

Three other candidates in these polls, B K Hariprasad, who is the Karnataka Congress chief; Thippannappa Kamaknoor and PV Mohan, were picked by the high command. The selection of the candidates showed that the CM was flexible with the idea of finding the right balance, and thus conveyed a message to the party’s top leadership that is no less capable than his seasoned predecessor.

Congress took full care against possible cross-voting

Shivakumar had possibly anticipated cross-voting in the election and chalked out a careful strategy whereby the legislators were shifted to a resort before the polling took place. The party maintained close coordination and monitored the legislators’ movement. The MLAs were even transported to the Vidhana Soudha in separate groups as a measure to prevent unseen surprises.

The strategy paid off. Hariprasad, Malavalli and Kamaknoor secured 30 seats each, while Mohan got 29. However, it was Prakash who surprised everybody, even the Congress, by getting 32 votes, the most for any candidate. He had only 21 votes in his hand (16 from the Congress, besides three independent MLAs and two MLAs who were earlier dismissed from the BJP for supporting the Congress) and needed seven more to win.

He got 11 instead, thanks to seven from the BJP (four direct to the Congress, two that were supposed to go to the JD(S) and the independent who merged) and four from the JD(S).

It is his win which has generated substantial interest and put the opposition under scrutiny. Since the leader hails from the Vokkaliga community, a social and political base over which the JD(S) traditionally exercised influence, the poll outcome indicated that the Congress succeeded in attracting support from outside its ranks.

MLC polls result embarrassed JD(S)

The election proved to be particularly embarrassing for the JD(S). The party fielded Govindaraju and required support beyond its own strength to remain competitive. Some quarters expected that it could attract votes from Congress through cross-voting. But, to its sheer disappointment, Govindaraju managed to get only 14 votes, four less than the number of MLAs it has in the Assembly – 18. The outcome immediately raised questions: Where did the remaining four votes go, and whether some legislators defied the party’s official position.

Also read: Will Karnataka’s Chief Minister DK Shivakumar hurt or heal Bengaluru?

Just like the Congress’s win reaffirmed Shivakumar’s authority in the party, the JD(S)’s poor show raised doubts over the authority of its chairman H D Kumaraswamy, a former chief minister of Karnataka and currently a Union minister, in the party.

The leader said on the cross-voting, “Nobody should be trusted excessively. The MLC election has given me that experience, and I have now understood who stands where. I do not want to blame anyone for the cross-voting, but this episode has shown me the reality of certain people.”

Uncomfortable questions for BJP

The BJP also faced uncomfortable questions after the results. The party's candidates managed to win, but the vote distribution indicated that not all expected votes remained intact. Raghu Kautilya secured 29 votes, while Lingaraj Patil received 27 votes, even though the saffron party had hoped both would get 30.

What disappointed the party more is that while it sought to transfer two votes to the JD(S), its alliance partner, which also went to the Congress through cross-voting.

These numbers also questioned whether the BJP leadership was able to fully consolidate its support base. Coordination within the state BJP leadership, including the relationship between different leaders and factions within the party, has also been questioned.

Is BJP-JD(S) alliance facing challenges?

The functioning of the opposition alliance has also come under scrutiny. While it exists on paper, it is being asked whether the two partners were able to effectively transfer and manage votes.

The state leadership of the saffron party has talked tough. BJP state president BY Vijayendra said, “There is no question of forgiving those who cross-voted in the Legislative Council election. Strict disciplinary action will be taken against those who betrayed the party. We have information about who may have indulged in cross-voting. Anyone elected on a BJP ticket who acts against the party line will face action.”

Also read: Shivakumar has inherited a 'broken-down lorry' from Siddaramaiah: Ashoka

Kumaraswamy also put up a brave face, saying he was not rattled by the outcome of the council elections.

However, with the next Assembly elections less than two years away, the opposition would have its task cut out to match the unity that the Congress displayed for the council polls, to oust it from power.