India is likely to project its growth estimate between 6 per cent and 6.8 per cent for 2023-2024 in the annual pre-budget economic survey, reports quoting sources said.
The Economic Survey by Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran will be presented in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday (January 31), a day before she presents the annual Budget.
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The survey essentially reviews the country’s economy in the past year, 2023-24 in this case.
While the growth estimate is under the baseline scenario and the slowest growth in three years, it is still higher than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank’s projection of 6.1 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively. India will also stay among the fastest growing economies in the world.
Government sources told Reuters that nominal growth is likely to be projected at 11 per cent for 2023-24.
Trade experts say India’s exports will decline, hitting its growth prospects due to falling demand in major markets and high energy costs.
“Net exports have negative contribution in FY23, which might continue in FY24, and may accentuate because of global recession,” DK Srivastava, EY India’s chief policy adviser told HT.
The report, however, is expected to assure of robust growth in the financial year beginning April 1 compared to other economies due to sustained private consumption, rise in lending by banks and better capital spending by corporation.
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Reuters said that the survey is likely to bring up the issue of above-target inflation in India, which the Reserve Bank of India pegs at 6.8 per cent in 2022-23, but may say that the pace of price rise is not high enough to thwart private consumption or low enough to weaken investment.
The survey is also likely to caution against rise in India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) due to high rate of imports and low exports triggered by a weak global economy. In the July-September quarter, India’s CAD was 4.4 per cent of GDP, higher than 2.2 a quarter ago and 1.3 per cent a year ago.
The survey is likely to announce an improvement in the job situation in India due to higher consumption while adding that a further acceleration in private investment is vital to create more employment opportunities, Reuters said.
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