Tripura polls: Triangular contest in the offing with TIPRA Motha sitting pretty

A three-way contest is in the offing in the north-eastern state of Tripura, which will be going to the polls on February 16. The contest for the 60-seat assembly appears to be between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the alliance of opposition CPI(M) and Congress and the TIPRA Motha party, headed by the scion of the erstwhile Tripura royal family, Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barman.

TIPRA Motha (TIPRA stands for Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance) currently governs the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council and is being wooed by both the BJP and the CPI(M)-Congress alliance.

Deb Barman’s demand

Deb Barman has remained tight-lipped about his alliances, stating that he will only ally with a party that formally agrees to his demand for a separate state, Tipraland, for indigenous groups in the state. The indigenous Tripuri tribals, accounting for 32.6 per cent of the state’s population, have a significant presence in the hill regions of the state and their support can sway the outcome in 20 of the 60 seats in the state.

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“No compromise will be made while forging an alliance with anyone until we get a written assurance on the party’s core demand of creating a Greater Tipraland state for the indigenous people of Tripura,” Deb Barman told reporter earlier this month.

The party is also in communication with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), which emerged victorious in eight of the nine seats it contested in 2018 as part of the BJP-led ruling coalition, for the possibility of a merger. Recently, IPFT has lost three legislators and numerous members to TIPRA Motha in the past two months. The IPFT, realising that it was losing ground fast, wrote to Deb Barman, offering to join the latter’s party.

IPFT’s offer

“I am writing this letter to express my sincere gratitude for proposal to unite IPFT and TIPRA in any form for solving the question of survivability and existence of the Tiprasas with an endeavour of achieving our demand for Tipraland and Greater Tipraland state,” IPFT working president Prem Kumar wrote.

TIPRA Motha is keeping options open. It is also said to be in talks with the BJP to form an alliance. According to some media reports, party president Bijay Kumar Hrangkhawl traveled to Delhi on Saturday to join Deb Barman in a meeting with Assam Chief Minister and North-East Democratic Alliance Chief Himanta Biswa Sarma on Sunday.

The CPI(M) and Congress, who have formed an electoral alliance, have also approached TIPRA Motha.

BJP fights anti-incumbency

The BJP had made history in 2018 by ending the Left government’s 25 years of rule and winning 36 seats out of 60. But less-than-stellar governance has made the party’s position shaky in the election. The former BJP chief minister, Biplab Kumar Deb, a gym trainer-turned-politician, landed in many controversies that embarrassed the party, which, fearing anti-incumbency, replaced him with Manik Saha.

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Last week, Saha said the BJP’s election agenda would centre around the state’s significant development and the double-engine growth under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Meanwhile, according to a senior party leader, the CPI(M)-led Left Front is expected to reveal the names of its candidates for the upcoming Tripura Assembly election soon, as the agreement on seat-sharing with Congress is nearing completion.

TMC lies low

The Trinamool Congress (TMC), which made much noise during the last election before it bit the dust, is likely to keep a low profile, and will put up a nominal presence. The TMC seems to have reportedly decided to stay low because of its problems with the central agencies.

The election as of now is likely to be a three-cornered contest — between the BJP, which will have no tribal ally this time unlike the last time, the TIPRA Motha which is likely to be joined by the IPFT, and the Congress-CPI(M) alliance.

Also Read: Assembly Polls: Tripura on February 16; Nagaland and Meghalaya Feb 27

If this position remains – that is, unless TIPRA Motha gets into an alliance with either the BJP or the CPI(M)-Congress – it would mean a possible consolidation of the tribal vote of a third of the electorate with TIPRA Motha, and the split of the Bengali vote between the BJP and the CPI(M)-Congress alliance. Clearly, TIPRA Motha, at this stage, looks to be sitting pretty.