Assembly polls in 9 states to set tone for 2024 Lok Sabha elections

While the Lok Sabha contest 2024 is still more than a year away, the BJP has already switched to battle mode ahead of assembly polls in nine states that are widely seen as a semi-final contest before the mega election. The Congress and other Opposition parties are also getting battle-ready, looking at possible strategies and alliances if not forging them right away.

The nine states which will see elections in 2023 are Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura and Meghalaya.

The stakes are undoubtedly high in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which will go to the polls in December-end, just before the Lok Sabha battle of 2024.

In the South, Karnataka and Telangana too hold the key to the BJP’s fortunes. At the same time, the significance of the four North-East states is also high, given the BJP’s electoral push in that region.

Critical battles

Any party winning most of these states is likely to have an edge in the Lok Sabha elections. A triumph for the BJP will further cement its position at the Centre while a defeat for the Congress will spell doom for it.

The BJP’s two-day National Executive meeting ended in New Delhi – where it announced its determination to sweep the elections – on Tuesday.

The countdown will start from the north-eastern states of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura between mid-February and March as the terms of their assemblies are set to expire between March 12 and 22.

The only BJP-ruled state in the South, Karnataka, will be next. Elections are likely between mid-April and May as the term of its assembly expires on May 24.

Key states

The last round of assembly polls in five states in three different geographical regions will be highly critical. These are Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in the populous Hindi heartland, Telangana in the South and Mizoram in the North-East.

The possibility of these five states heading to the polls together cannot be ruled out. Their assemblies’ current tenure will end between December 18, 2023 and January 17, 2024.

Also read: Will travel across Karnataka to strengthen BJP ahead of 2023 assembly polls: Yediyurappa

The Federal takes a look at the current status of the nine states.

Karnataka

All eyes will be on the Karnataka as it is the only BJP-ruled state in the South. The Congress with 78 seats and JD (S) with 37 seats are the key players in the Opposition. The two came together in an alliance to keep the BJP out of power in 2018 but that government collapsed in 14 months.

Madhya Pradesh

The BJP has ruled Madhya Pradesh since 2003, except for a 15-month period when the Congress led by Kamal Nath governed it from January 2019 to March 2020 before Jyotiraditya Scindia walked out of the party with 22 MLAs to join the BJP. The Congress is the main opposition in the state. The AAP’s entry into the electoral arena may spice up the battle.

Rajasthan

The faction-ridden Congress is ruling the desert state. The feud between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his rival Sachin Pilot is causing great damage to the party. The BJP is the main opposition player here. But things may change as the AAP may do a Gujarat and play a spoilsport for the Congress.

Chhattisgarh

The Congress won in 2018 after three successive terms of the BJP under Raman Singh. Like Rajasthan, the Congress tenure here has also been marred by factionalism between Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel and rival TS Singh Deo. The main contest is between the Congress and the BJP in Chhattisgarh.

Also read: With eye on polls, BJP’s two-day national executive meet begins Monday

Telangana

In Telangana, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), formerly the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), led by Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao has been in power since 2014. The Congress is the main opposition player in Telangana though the BJP too is trying hard to make inroads.

Mizoram

The Mizo National Front (MNF) led by Chief Minister Zoramthanga rules the state. He is holding office for a third term. The Congress remains the main opposition in the state though it won only five assembly seats in 2018.

Meghalaya

The NPP led by Chief Minister Conrad K Sangma governs the state. It won 19 seats out of total 60 in 2018 and stitched the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) with four other parties including the BJP to deny another term to the Congress that bagged 21 seats.

Nagaland

The National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP)-BJP alliance led by Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio has ruled Nagaland since 2018. The Naga People’s Front (NPF) is the main opposition party.

Tripura

The BJP-IPFT alliance is led by Chief Minister Manik Saha. The BJP has 34 MLAs while IPFT has 5 legislators. The CPI (M) is the main opposition party with 15 MLAs. The Congress and the CPI (M) have announced an alliance for the assembly elections.