Gujarat: Modi talks of Congress ‘tricks’, but there's none really
The Congress is yet to begin its campaign for the upcoming Assembly election in Gujarat, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sprung a surprise of sorts. He spoke in a recent tour of the state about a “new trick” being played by the Congress with the idea of making a dent in the BJP’s electoral fortunes in Gujarat.
Modi’s riposte comes despite the fact that Congress has been successively losing polls in Gujarat since 1995, both in the Vidhan Sabha and in the Lok Sabha.
With the Gujarat election about a month away, Modi has been visiting the state almost every week. This is unlike the top brass of the Congress, who are right now either busy in Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra in the distant South, or the election of a new Congress president, for which votes are to be cast on October 17 to choose between Mallikarjun Kharge and Shahi Tharoor.
Also read: Bharat Jodo Yatra – Key to Congress’ electoral revival lies elsewhere
And most of the state-level Congressmen hardly move out of their comfort zones. At the most, they give memorandums to the Governor or to the Assembly Speaker, and subsequently issue press statements. The party’s seasoned hands like former Leader of Opposition in Gujarat Assembly, Shaktisinh Gohil, have been shifted to Delhi, or to the AICC headquarters, after becoming Rajya Sabba MPs. The state unit of the party has been left rather poorer with political lightweights at the helm.
Modi’s Gujarat jaunts
The point is that unlike the Congress top brass and even the state party leaders, Modi has of late been making quite a few jaunts to Gujarat.
Addressing a campaign meeting at Jamkandorna village in Rajkot district, he remarked, “This time round, they (Congress) are using a new trick. Congress is not holding any meetings and press conferences. Even if it does, it is neither attacking Modi nor using any foul words (against me). They are doing kathaala baithaks (informal get togethers on charpoys) away from media glare. It is sending its people (workers), who are bowing down to people, crying in front of them and pleading to (voters) to help them at least once.”
Also read: Fault lines surface within BJP over remission of 11 convicts in Bilkis Bano gang-rape
A day earlier, it was reported that Modi laid the foundation stones and dedicated projects worth a total of ₹8,000 crore. Then, he told a gathering at Amod in Bharuch district that the Congress seems to be inactive but is quietly touring villages and towns, trying to convince people to vote against the BJP.
So, why does Modi see a threat, or a “trick”, to use his word, from the Congress when there has virtually been hardly any campaign from the Opposition party’s side so far?
Need for greater zeal
The obvious answer is Modi wants BJP workers to rouse themselves and move out and interact with the electorate with greater zeal than what has been the case so far. Because of the long years of being in power in the state as well as at the Centre, the BJP cadres have become more dependent on the government machinery than when Congress CMs like Chimanbhai Patel and Chhabildas Mehta ruled Gujarat.
Over a quarter of a century has elapsed ever since and the BJP may have to possibly face a greater degree of anti-incumbency without it being noticed.
Also read: Ensure Congress fails to get votes in Gujarat polls: Kejriwal
So, Modi does not want to let complacency set in among his party workers at a time when the long BJP rule may have given way to voter fatigue. Thus, no sooner than he left Gujarat, BJP chief JP Nadda visited the state. Nadda flagged off a couple of Gujarat Gaurav Yatras, from Mehsana and Dwarka, on October 12. Three more similar marches were also flagged off on October 13 by Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
This suggests there has been a quick follow-up of what Modi had pointed out during his tours, though there could have been a plan earlier for taking out such yatras. And these might have been getting delayed due to procrastination on the part of the local leadership.
The AAP factor
In his speeches in Gujarat, Modi also indicated that though the Congress has gone into a virtual silent mode, the AAP has been vocal. He warned of a possible nexus between the two parties though both are thought to be poles apart.
The fact is that AAP decimated the Congress in Delhi and greatly marginalised it in Punjab. So, exploiting the deep chasm between the two parties can be tempting for the BJP in Gujarat.
Thus, Modi pointing out Congress’ silent or rather veiled moves to woo the Gujarat electorate may be aimed at confounding the non-BJP voters so as to divide them between the two rival parties more sharply. This in turn may benefit the BJP in what looks likely to become a triangular contest.
Echoes of Rahul’s Yatra
In the past too, the BJP had taken out Gujarat Gaurav Yatras during elections. But this time, they have been flagged off with greater fanfare by big central leaders — perhaps, Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra is on their minds.
Moreover, a couple of days before setting out on his maiden and longest ever yatra, Rahul had visited the Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad to pay obeisance at Mahatma Gandhi’s ashram. He also addressed a well attended Congress workers’ meeting that turned into a virtual public rally because it was held in the open near Ellis Bridge at the Sabarmati riverfront.
The Congress leader announced several sops, or freebies, in the event of his party coming to power in Gujarat. These included cutting down the price of cooking gas cylinder by half to ₹500, upto 300 units of free electricity to farmers and a monthly assistance of ₹3,000 to the unemployed youth.
These announcements are in sharp contrast to the 2017 Assembly polls, when the Congress had sought suggestions from people, NGOs and civil society members about the points to be included in the Congress manifesto. Similarly, before last municipal elections held in eight cities of Gujarat, Congress had launched separate toll free phone numbers for people to give their suggestions from each of the cities.
Preempting APP onslaught
As compared to the last Assembly polls, when the Congress did relatively better than all the Vidhan Sabha polls held in Gujarat since 2002, what’s new this time is the entry of AAP. So the sops announced by Rahul may be with an idea to preempt the AAP onslaught.
It is more so since AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal is known for his offers like free electricity, pensions and doles in elections won by him in Congress-ruled Punjab recently and earlier in Delhi. Given this track record, the chances are that AAP is likely to harm the Congress more than the BJP.
Also read: How Kejriwal managed to turn Gujarat into an AAP vs BJP contest
Long time observers of Gujarat say that AAP can well affect the poll outcome in as many as 35 Assembly seats, though it may win just a few of them. According to them, this may reduce the Congress’ tally of 77 seats in the state, against BJP’s 99.
Communal incidents
But what has led to the staunch loyalty of a large number of voters towards the BJP is sharp communal polarisation. This has compounded recently due to at least two incidents. The first is the release of 11 convicts in the Bilkis Bano rape case. The government gave them remission on Independence Day.
The other is the more recent public flogging of a few Muslim youth by Gujarat police personnel in plainclothes at a public square in a village, for allegedly throwing stones at a group gathered for a garba dance.
Opposition parties — whether Congress, or AAP or others — have virtually been living in dread of losing popular support in case their leaders try and question the impossibility of justice and fair-play for the minority community victims of police vendetta and the BJP administration’s apathy towards them. Except for making token statements, BJP’s rivals have so far done little to question constitutional violations.
AAP has been conspicuously silent over the two incidents. The Congress did question the release of convicts in the Bilkis Bano case but this has been without the party building a strong public opinion against the government action. Thus, there is little hope to redeem Gujarat from getting further polarised on communal lines. This in turn can work against the Congress in the upcoming polls.
Had the Congress raised the issues related to the process of remission and its grant, the fact that the Gujarat government took the step in a highly selective manner could have easily been borne out and a strong case could have been made for the release of more deserving prisoners.
An activist’s lament
A need for this was pointed out in a recent interview about life in prison by Teesta Setalvad, the jailed activist who was recently granted bail. She revealed that she saw a few women convicts crying in Sabarmati jail after August 15, as they read in newspapers about the remission given to the convicts in the Bilkis Bano case. They had applied for remission and waited for long without any luck and hope for mercy, said Setalvad.
The point is that the BJP’s overdrive to achieve its electoral ends can often leave glaring gaps from the point of view of law and justice, besides imperilling social harmony and accord. Rahul’s long march can well serve as a reminder about this though at the moment it looks unlikely to touch a chord among the deeply and unevenly divided electorate in Gujarat.
