How the first four rounds of UP polls would impact the remaining three
The more complex vicissitudes and last minute poll-eve changes make the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls exercise an ideal setting for the students of political science to study the dynamics of electoral politics.
Out of the four rounds of polling completed, the anger of Jat and Gujjar farmers against the BJP turned out to be decisive in the first two. The third phase was held mainly in the ‘Yadav belt’, the Samajwadi Party (SP) strongholds like Mainpuri, Auraiya, Ferozabad, Farukkabad etc. The outcome here in favour of SP was a foregone conclusion.
Political observers were eagerly awaiting reports from the remaining rounds to see whether the BJP would be able to make up for the loss in the first three rounds. News started filtering in by February 23 evening showing unexpectedly that the Samajwadi Party was ahead in the fourth round as well. Politically high-profile constituencies like Lucknow, Rae Bareilly, Unnao, Sitapur and Philibhit that went to polls as part of this round confirmed that BJP’s decline continued in this region of Awadh as well, where the saffron party otherwise used to be relatively stronger.
The polling trends in the first four rounds have quickly sunk into the mass consciousness of voters in the areas of remaining three rounds too, thanks to the hourly updates people get on their cellphones in this digital age. The curiosity has obviously increased about what verdict the remaining three rounds would deliver. The ground reports from the areas waiting for voting clearly indicate that the media coverage of the first four rounds has obviously changed the perceptions there, especially in Poorvanchal (eastern UP) districts. Among the neutral and fluid voters in the remaining constituencies, the general impression is that the Yogi Government might find it tough to make a comeback. To what extent this would propel the neutral voters to make their choices in favour of SP remains to be seen.
The change in perception among the voters was preceded by a change in media perception as well. Barring one or two, most of the Hindi channels were supporting the BJP. They were privy to the exit polls findings some of them conducted. The Election Commission might have stopped them from publishing the exit poll findings until after the completion of the last round of polling, but the news percolated quickly within the media circles. No Election Commission can completely throttle the media grapevine ever. The murmurs on exit poll findings and ground reporting from the areas of first three rounds strengthened the dominant media opinion that the BJP is facing an uphill task. Even the media managements did not want to be seen totally favouring a losing party as it would not be a wise business proposition either. So there was a perceptible change in the media coverage. That brought about a change in the ground perception as well.
Also read: How UP’s 80% are polarising against Yogi Adityanath
Certain critical events too reinforced this process. The news of cancellation of Home Minister Amit Shah’s campaign meetings in Deoband, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi cancelling his Bijnore rally in view of the opposition from farmers convinced ordinary voters about the state of affairs in western Uttar Pradesh. The images of farmers raising slogans against, or even chasing away, about a dozen BJP candidates flashed repeatedly on TV screens well before the first round of polling on February 10. These photos were far more effective than hundreds of poll meetings and speeches in reinforcing the impression.
Also, the desperation and frustration of many BJP leaders, including Modi, could be seen in their election speeches, where they threatened voters or equated the SP’s symbol ‘cycle’ with ‘terrorism’. Reports highlighting these incidents have proved counterproductive.
Similar anger came to the fore in other regions as well what with none other than Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya himself facing angry slogans from voters in Sirathu constituency in Kaushambi on January 23. TV viewers were also entertained by an unusual speactacle of hundreds of uniformed policemen running after cows and bulls like metadors to chase them away from an election rally ground at Barabanki, 40 kms away from Lucknow, on February 22.
Chief Minister Yogi, who was scheduled to address a rally on that ground, had to wait for more than an hour until the policemen managed to chase away the cattle and hurriedly erect a makeshift fence. The farmers had released the cattle into the rally ground to protest against the stray cattle menace, which has assumed gigantic proportions. Thanks to Yogi’s fiat against sending stray cattle to butcheries, the number of stray cattle multiplied several fold within a few months and farmers now have to stay awake through the night in the fields to chase away stray cattle to save their crops. Images are more powerful than words in conveying the message to the voters. Watching the scenes on TV evoked a hearty laugh among the farming community in the rural hinterlands. The farmers wanted to give Yogi a taste of his own medicine.
New OBC convergence sans social justice rhetoric
Such striking visuals apart, the polling trends in the first four phases also indicate that there are many apparently paradoxical phenomena. There is a convergence of ‘social justice’ forces sans the rhetoric of old-style social justice politics. Simultaneously, the conventional ideological faultlines are apparently getting blurred; or, at least getting rearticulated while social faultlines are sought to be transcended. Who would have expected Akhilesh Yadav to visit temples and court Pandits? Some secular critics called it ‘soft Hindutva’. But such overtures diluted traditional tensions with upper castes and individuals and even small groups from Brahmin and Bania castes went over to SP and some of them were also given tickets. The unassuming Akhilesh, with his low-visibility coalition building, clicked where the highly noisy polarizing campaign by the powerful Modi-Yogi duo seems to have flopped.
Akhilesh’s gains were substantial in electoral terms. Besides sealing alliance with Jat leader Jayant Chaudry, Om Prakash Rajbhar of Suhaldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and Krishna Patel faction of Apna Dal of Kurmis/Patels, Akhilesh was also meeting leaders of Nishads and Mauryas and succeeded in wooing them to SP’s fold. More importantly, he also met the leaders of Chauhan community like Sanjay Chauhan and leaders of Sainis and Kashyaps, Pals and Prajapatis.
With a calculated and conscious approach, the SP has succeeded in considerably minimizing its pro-Muslim identity and the image of overwhelming Yadav dominance in SP. Despite a series of ideological attacks on minorities by Yogi and even by Modi in a subtle way, SP consciously avoided paying back in the same coin and no issue of minority rights was spoken about. Majority of Muslims also understood and cleverly endorsed this approach. Besides SP’s conscious strategy, the tide turning in favour of the SP despite its low-decibel campaigning shows the underlying shift in popular preferences. Thanks to the silent anti-incumbency, even without a perceptible wave, a wave-like effect in shift of political fortunes has been brought about within the short period of few days amidst staggered polls.
Sagging prospects of the BJP
BJP started its poll pitch as a high-visibility campaign. But it was clearly dwindling, offering diminishing returns. Vikas, a brassware exporter from Moradabad, told The Federal that people wanted change this time. “They have become economically devastated because of demonetisation and GST. We have not recovered yet and Mandir-Masjid politics cannot feed us,” he opined.
Despite the famed election machinery and its legendary IT Cell supposedly engaged in meticulous voter analytics, BJP miserably failed in its last-mile response. The top BJP central leaders had no clue as to how to salvage the sagging poll fortunes. Desperation replaced innovation. It clearly manifested in the chorus of Modi, Shah and JP Nadda, who were calling Akhilesh and SP terrorists. The sense of proportion had clearly gone.
To begin with, the prospects were not very bad for the BJP in the beginning. The bottom most 20% and top 20% of the population seemed to be still going strong for the BJP. In electoral terms, that was a formidable combination for the BJP. The bottom 20% were with the BJP because the apparently anti-BJP social forces like Jats and Yadavs were oppressive towards Chamars. Also, they were appreciative of the free foodgrains offered. But the fourth round showed that the percentage of support is declining—both at the top as well as bottom. Are some from the bottom 20% also sfiting to the SP?
Bidhuna – A case study of changing political and social alignments
To understand how the neck-and-neck campaign turned to the advantage of the SP, we can cite the example of changing social and political alignment of Bidhuna constituency in Auraia that voted in the third round. There are 3,62 lakh total voters in Bidhuna. In terms of caste composition, the committed voters to the SP are 42,000 Yadavs, 18,000 Muslims, and 25,000 Lodhs. The Lodhs are rallying behind the SP entirely because the SP candidate Rekha Verma is a Lodh. The only committed votes with the BJP are 30,000 Brahmins. Despite some misgivings against Yogi for running a “Thakur Raj” in appointments in key posts in bueaucracy, they would vote for BJP overwhelmingly. Among the polarizing votes are 40,000 Shakyas. The BJP candidate Riya Shakya is an educated symbol of modernity by UP OBC standards. Shakyas are getting polarized because her father Vinay Shakya was a tall local Shakya leader, the sitting MLA who also won the seat in 2012 elections as a BSP leader. Vinay Shakya, shifted to SP along with Swami Prasad Maurya. Father is now campaigning against daughter. It resonates well among the mass of Shakyas and gives expression to the disgruntlement of Shakya local power groups with the upper caste dominace under Yogi. While the yonger generation voters, especially the semi-educated girls preferred Riya, the conservatives did not approve of the daughter politically defying her father.
But the highest chunk of voters in Bidhuna comprises Dalits, who make up 20% of the voters and number around 75,000. Congress has fielded Suman Vyas, a Dalit and a civl society worker, daughter of a Congress veteran and 5-times MP and former minister Baijnath Kureel. The majority of the Dalit votes would go to Ms.Vyas/Congress and a small but sizable section would still vote for the BJP. This constituency is a good example of Congress cutting the BJP votes rather than playing spoilsport for SP as Dalits would not have voted for the SP in any case. There are 28,000 Thakurs and other Kshatriyas in Bidhuna. The BSP has fielded an educated, business management postgraduate who is a Thakur. He too would considerably cut into BJP votes.
But the dicey, unpredictable and fluid voters number 175,000 from other castes. They comprise both upper castes like Banias, Bhumihars, Kayasthas, as well as numerous other non-Yadav, non-Shakya small OBCs. Even assuming 50:50 polarisation or even 60:40 polarisation in favour of the BJP among other sections of polarizing and noncommittal and fluid voters in Bidhuna, the SP still has a slight edge. The BJP has failed to steer the changes to its advantage.
This constituency is also an example of how powerful local political families can play a decisive role and despite Shakyas occupying political centrestage sidelining Brahmins, Thakurs and even Yadavs, how partisan politics polarises them. Though it is a tight-rope walk for both SP and the BJP, the BJP finds itself at the reciving ends.
BJP’s OBC conundrum
BJP embarked upon a massive OBCs outreach before 2017. In 2012, of the 88 seats won by the BJP, only 13 were OBCs. In contrast, in 2017, there were 101 OBCs among 303 BJP MLAs. But the catch was that the non-Yadav OBCs were junior partners in a broader social pact dominated by upper castes which is unraveling this time. In the face of growing unrest among OBCs at Yogi’s domineering non-accommodationism, Modi tried to apply balm by recruiting 6 OBC ministers out of 7 from UP, including Apna Dal’s Anupriya Patel, into the Union Council of Ministers during the last reshuffle. But it was too late to bring about a patch-up. He couldn’t give marching orders to Yogi either because there was no powerful unifying alternative. Moreover, his hands were tied because Yogi was the choice of RSS.
Last minute populism also finds its limits. The Scooty promise of the BJP did not evoke much response. One Rekha Shrivatsva, a school teacher, contacted by The Federal was asking: Scooty lekar jayenge kahan? Rozgar nahi, aage padayi nahi, petrol mehnga hogayi, Kya faida Scooty-se? (Where shall we go with the Scooty? There are no jobs, no scope for further education, petrol prices have gone up.Whay is the use of Scooty?)
Also read: Akhilesh is emerging stronger, but hurdles grow tougher too
The BJP poll manifesto promised two free gas cylinders—one for Holi and one for Deewali. Muslims perceive this as a communal move. Why not one for Eid and Bakri Eid? This is the question that inevitably rises in their minds though they have become intelligent enough not to voice it openly.
Poorvanchal Prospects
With 164 seats spread across 28 districts, Poorvanchal would play a decisive role in UP. Voting has been completed in 231 seats of the state in the first 4 rounds and now votes are to be cast in 172 seats covering mostly the Poorvanchal region in the last three rounds. BJP won 115 seats out of these 164 in 2017. All other parties were wiped out except in Azamgarh, which remained a stronghold of SP, which hopes for a total reversal of fortunes now.
Earlier, Poorvanchal used to be considered a mafia stronghold. Gun-wielding bahubalis (strongmen gangsters) used to call the shots. Election “campaign” used to be in the form of gun-wielding gangs entering villages and exhorting voters to vote for a particular candidate and even resorting to booth-capturing and violence on the polling day. Though this has changed considerably, ‘gansterism’ is still an issue here. Hence Amit Shah promises that no bahubali could be seen even on a telescope if Yogi is re-elected.
However, powerful rural gentry with newly acquired economic clout in farming and other businesses, has emerged as a mass force more powerful than the few handful of earlier bahubalis. They now decide the voting pattern mainly. But these rural gentry are perennially riven by sharp factionalism in exercising local power. Rival factions have emerged along caste lines and even within the same caste.
As electoral battles are integrally intertwined with such local power politics, ticket distribution by parties and choice of candidates plays a disproportionaly greater role here. The clout of the extended families of the chosen candidates and the rebellion by local rivals who did not get the ticket usually play a more decisive role than the programmes and policies or even the ideologies of the parties. Modi attacks Parivarvad (dynastic politics) to take potshots at both Congress and SP but, ironically enough, most of the BJP candidates in Poorvanchal are from prominent political families. Fielding a prominent rival from the same caste or clan to polarize the caste votes is the approach generally. For instance, BJP has fielded a Rajbhar candidate against Om Prakash Rajbhar.
The Congress is also a factor in some urban pockets. Shivsevak Singh, an ex-Corporator from Allahabad, told The Federal that the Congress candidate Anugrah Narain Singh from Allahabad North was all set to win this time, as the SP and BSP candidates were weak while Anugrah had an image of a hard working, pro-poor candidates. In his opinion, 90 % Non-Yadav OBCs have shifted from BJP to Congress in this constituency. Middle class intellectuals and students are also favouring him. Only Jatavs are remaining with the BSP and Yadavs are siding with the SP.
Backwards are in the forefront in Poorvanchal politics
Poorvanchal today is characterized by OBC assertion, and there again by OBC vs OBC contention, primarily. The social composition is also not uniform across the region and they vastly vary in the districts. For instance, Muslims comprise 29.23% in Siddharthnagar while their share in Ballia is 6.59%. Dalits constitute 25.73% of the electorate in Azamgarh while in adjacent Mau they account for only 15.3% of the electorate. But, surprisingly, demographic numbers do not always remain decisive and political assertion as a caste is not always related to their numbers. Though Muslims and Dalits together range between 40–45% of the voters across many Poorvanchal districts, surprisingly Rajbhars and Chauhans, comprising less than 10% each, are assertive in Ghazipur, Ballia, and Mau. Yadavs usually call the shots in close alliance with Muslims in Azamgarh and surprisingly this is one of the few places they area able to carry among the Dalits too.
In Deoria, Brahmins outnumber both 11.56% Muslims and 18.19% Dalits and always remain at the forefront of district politics whereas the OBCs are scattered. Mallas (Nishads)-Yadavs combo is decisive in Gorakhpur, Yogi’s own backyard, and they put up a stiff challenge to local Rajputs and it is a winning combo in Basti too. Kushwahas and Saintwars, an OBC caste little known elsewhere, are asserting in Kushinagar. Kushwahas (also known as Mauryas) and Patels are also powerful in Varanasi, Ambedkarnagar, Sant Kabir Nagar and so on.
The demographic limits themselves weaken the rigid lines of demarcation along identity lines and for the sake of getting the critical winning margin even SP is forced to win over a section of upper castes. Hence, we see SP candidates launching their campaigns from temples, SP fielding more upper caste candidates, the promise of a tall Parashuram statue, and even circulation of old footages of Akhilesh taking a dip in Ganges during Kumbh or visiting Sankar Mochan temple in Kashi. SP pins hopes on winning the support of a section of upper castes but similar attempts are absent towards Dalits.
Omprakash Rajbhar and Swami Prasad Maurya are two tall OBC leaders in Poorvanchal and both have left the BJP fold now with a majority of their caste following. Together, this will affect the prospects of BJP in eight districts—Ballia, Ghazipur, Varanasi, Azamgarh, Mau, Ambedkar, Kushinagar and Ambedkarnagar and might even prove to be a game-changer. Winning 115 seats looks impossible for the BJP now.
Though SP is giving a tough fight to the BJP in Poorvanchal, the BSP will play a spoilsport affecting SP more than the BJP. A sting operation by an independent journalist Goplal Das in which Shamsuddin Rain, BSP’s No.3 leader now after Mayawati and Satish Chandra Mishra, allegedly claims that the BJP would pay them Rs.300 crore for fielding 50 BSP candidates of BJP’s choice who can cut SP’s votes went viral in western UP. In the heat of the poll battle, there was no time for its forensic examination even. But a general impression has gained ground that BSP is in behind-the-scene collusion with the BJP. In Poorvanchal, several older Muslim leaders from SP have gone over to BSP when denied tickets and SP leaders allege BJP’s hand behind this. Even some Muslim political functionaries acknowledge that 10–15% of Muslims are still with the BSP, mostly followers of some locally prominent Muslim leaders.
Case Study: Sirathu Constituency
Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, perceived as a prime contender for Chief Minister’s post, is contesting from Sirathu. Since he too has an RSS background, to counter Yogi’s Saffron image, Maurya has roped in Mahants of Ram Temple campaign and VHP bigwigs critical of Yogi. Though considered a strongman from the OBC Maurya community, Keshav Prasad could do nothing to prevent the Maurya exodus from the BJP with Swami Prasad Maurya.
The SP has fielded Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal (Krishna Patel faction) who hails from the Kurmi community (also called Patels in this region). She is the daughter of a prominent Kurmi leader Sonelal Patel, who led the undivided Apna Dal. Incidentally, Pallavi Patel’s sister is Anupriya Patel, who is now a member of Modi’s ministry. There was a split in the family and Anurpriya’s mother Krishna Patel and Pallavi have formed a separate Apna Dal faction which has aligned with the SP.
Mauryas and Patels are almost equal in numbers in this constituency in Kaushambi district. Pasis, the non-Chamar Dalit community, who voted entirely with the BJP in 2017, are now rallied behind Indrajit Saroj, who has now joined SP and actively campaigns for Pallavi Patel. This will create a dent in BJP’s base. There are 50,000 Muslim voters in Sirathu. Their voting en masse for SP, besides Yadavs, will tilt the balance and make the going tough for Keshav Prasad Maurya.
The campaign became high-profile after Akhilesh Yadav himself personally campaigned in Sirathu. His rally was followed by rallies by popular Dimple Yadav, his wife, and Jaya Bachchan. Keshav Prasad Muarya was also equally resourceful and he brought in Nitin Gadkari and Dharmendra Pradhan to campaign in his constituency. SP has high stakes in preventing emergence of an OBC Chief Minister from BJP.
Mauryas’ exodus, and even the shift in Kurmi votes, in Poorvanchal is well known. But the the shift of Chauhan votes has not been equally highlighted. Usha Singh, a teacher in Madhuban of Mau District says Dara Singh Chauhan had won in the 2017 elections and was a minister in the Yogi government. Chauhan’s shifting to the SP has changed the poll arithmetic.
Manoj Kumar, a journalist working in Poorvanchal says this time the issues of unemployment and price rise are larger than the communal issues. The pro-BJP sections in the media harping on the hijab issue might have some impact only among the Baniyas and Kayasthas. The BJP has no other narrative with which it can face the people in the villages.
Renowned photo journalist SK Yadav, known for his photographs of Babri Masjid demolition, strikes a note of caution. He told The Federal: “It is still difficult to predict a clear majority for the SP, because the Brahmins, who are disgruntled with Yogi, are silent. But due to the continuing BJP and Media propaganda that SP will restore Yadav-Muslim domination, they will finally vote for BJP. So also the Banias, despite Demonitisation and GST woes. There can be a 50-50 shift in the non-Yadav OBC votes to SP. But the silent pro-BJP vote will show up only when the counting is done. The silent support to the BJP cannot be unserestimated because the mood is upbeat in the SP camp and it shows up in large numbers attending SP rallies.”
As far as the upper castes are concerned, despite some anger against Yogi for not giving them their due role, they will vote for BJP. The aggressive campaign by SP to win over non-Yadav OBCs has created a backlash among upper castes, who feel that their own hegemony over them would be eroding. Most of the officials in Poorvanchal—not only SPs, DMs but even block level officials—are from Savarna castes. The official patronage by the officialdom has increased the intensity of caste oppressiveness at the village level.
Some calculation by pro-reservation ideologues that out of 69,000 teachers appointed in the last 5 years, 1863 posts which otherwise should have gone to OBCs as their share under the OBC quota, have gone to Savarnas because of the 10% Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) reservation has rankled the educated by unemployed OBC youth. Likewise, the Pant Institute in Prayagraj not filling a single OBC quota posts under the pretext that qualified candidates were not available has caused considerable heartburn among them. The upper caste youth are angry at question paper leaks in civil service exams and they were forced to write competitive exams all over again after a long wait. But unemployment is an issue for both as they unitedly exploded aginst the Raiways Recruitment Board botching up their recruitment drive recently.
The X-Factor in Poorvanchal
But there is a silent at work in Poorvanchal and it remains to be seen whether it will prove to be decisive. Western UP is relatively more affluent but eastern UP is poorer in general. Some academics from Allahabad University told The Federal that though Jats and Gujjars are educationally backward in Western UP despite being more affluent, eastern UP lags even far behind the Western UP both economically as well as educationally. Poverty causes all-round backwardness. The BJP toyed with the idea of a separate programme for all-round development of Poorvanchal but it did not take off and the region continues to be plagued by floods and encephalitis. Yogi has failed in his own region. Average incomes are much lower compared to western UP.
Hence, the X-factor that works here is the distribution of 10 kgs of free PDS foodgrains and 2 kgs each of oil-dal. Namakharami nahi karenge (We shall not betray the hands that fed!) is a slogan of the BJP which indeed finds some resonance among the ethican conscience of the poor of Poorvanchal which could not have similar influence in Western UP. There even the lower middle farmers scorn the free foodrain scheme saying we don’t want alms but jobs. So even as 15 crore people in UP alone have been benefited by the scheme, while free foodgrains is an issue of saving livelihoods in eastern UP, it is seen negatively as an issue of self-respect and dignity in western UP. The proud Jat would not queue up to get a bag of 10 kgs of atta with a Modi picture on it!
A Zee News pre-poll survey published on January 19, 2022 that summarized findings for only 17 of the 28 districts and 102 of the 164 seats (as per their limited definition of Poorvanchal in their zonal categorization for the survey), predicted that the BJP would lose up to 59 seats among these 102 seats. For all 164 seats, the figure might touch 80. The figure would only go up due to the impact of poll pointers from the first 4 rounds. Some OBC ideologues claim that out of a total estimated 52% share in the OBC population in Poorvanchal, saving 8% Yadav voters, rest 44% totally voted for the BJP in 2017 and now their hope is that even if half of them shift back to the SP’s fold that would be a winning proposition for the Akhilesh Yadav-led party. If the SP crosses 100 mark in Poorvanchal alone, a single-party majority for them at the state level will well be within the realm of possible.