Vasundhara Raje appears set for a big comeback in Rajasthan BJP

Assembly polls in Rajasthan may still be more than 18 months away, but former chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia’s recent meetings with the BJP’s central leadership has created a flutter in her party and the desert state’s politics.

The former two-term CM, who presided over the BJP’s electoral rout against the Congress in 2018, has spent the past four years out of the political spotlight. Her ‘elevation’ as the BJP’s national vice president after the defeat was also seen as a move by the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo to push her into political oblivion, since it’s well known that within the BJP, vice presidents have little role to play as tasks of state in-charges are meant for party general secretaries.

Raje’s frosty relationship with the Prime Minister and the Home Minister had been cited by BJP insiders as reasons for the party lavishing key posts on her rivals such as Gulab Chand Kataria, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Satish Poonia and Rajendra Rathore.

Back to centre-stage

Over the past month, though, Raje appears to have made a return to the centre-stage of Rajasthan politics and her party’s activities in the state. The former CM met BJP national president JP Nadda in New Delhi on March 29. This meeting was preceded by interactions with Modi, Shah and Union ministers Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari as well as Raje’s presence at the swearing-in ceremony of newly re-elected chief ministers Yogi Adityanath and Pushkar Singh Dhami.

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Earlier, on March 8, her 69^th birthday, Raje visited the Keshavrai temple in Keshoraipatan town of Rajasthan’s Bundi district and addressed a massive public meeting. Though she described the event as a personal affair, the presence of a large number of state BJP MLAs and leaders – many of whom had skipped a party meeting in Jaipur to be present at Raje’s do – was widely seen as an assertion of her political clout.

BJP insiders told The Federal that the flurry of activity is a definitive signal that the Jhalrapatan MLA will be taking on a more substantial role in the party’s poll strategy for Rajasthan.

The apparent thaw in relations between Raje and the BJP’s top brass in New Delhi, sources say, also stems from the belated realisation that leaders that Modi and Shah had sought to promote as alternatives to Raje had fallen drastically short of expectations.

After the BJP’s defeat in 2018 – the party won 73 of the 200 seats against the Congress’s 100 – the Modi-Shah duo had handed over all key party positions in Rajasthan to Raje’s detractors. Her bitter-rivals Gulab Chand Kataria, Rajendra Rathore and Satish Poonia were appointed as leader of opposition, deputy leader of opposition and Rajasthan BJP chief, respectively. Another of her detractors, Jodhpur MP Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, was included in Modi’s cabinet while Raje’s son, four-term Jhalawar-Baran MP Dushyant Singh, was kept out.

Support of the people

However, Raje made no overt display of her unhappiness. Those close to her insist that Raje, who has won five elections each to the Lok Sabha and the assembly, confined herself to her assembly constituency of Jhalrapatan to prove a point.

“None of the people the central leadership promoted have a mass base. Raje enjoys support of people across the state and among a majority the BJP’s legislative party. By choosing to confine herself to Jhalawar, Raje was basically taunting the central leadership… She knew the likes of Kataria, Poonia and Shekhawat lacked the political heft and stature to revive the party and she was convinced that sooner or later the central leadership would realise its mistake… very soon you will see that she has been proven right,” a senior party MLA and close aide of Raje told The Federal.

The BJP’s Rajasthan leaders point out that the party had paid the price of sidelining Raje two years back when, in August 2020, the Congress’s Ashok Gehlot-led government was hit by turmoil in wake of the rebellion by Sachin Pilot and nearly two dozen MLAs loyal to him.

“A key reason why Operation Kamal was not successful in Rajasthan was that Raje refused to cooperate. For one whole month, Poonia, Shekhawat and Kataria tried their best to get Pilot, his loyalists and other Congress MLAs to defect. Pilot on his own could not topple the government because unlike Jyotiraditya Scindia [Raje’s nephew] in MP, Pilot did not have sufficient MLAs to defect with him and bring Gehlot down…We needed at least 10-15 MLAs more. Raje made it clear she won’t be party to these attempts and for that whole month she confined herself to her Dholpur residence, refusing to even attend meetings convened by Poonia and Kataria,” a state BJP leader said.

No part in Operation Kamal

A BJP MLA, once considered close to Raje but now in the Poonia camp, said Raje’s refusal to participate in Operation Kamal was borne out of personal interests. “Firstly, she knew that even if Pilot defected, all his loyalists may not follow and the BJP will not have enough numbers to stake claim. It would have been a futile exercise. Secondly, if by some miracle we did get the numbers, Raje may not have been made the CM. If the party had assured her that, like Shivraj Chouhan in MP, she too would get another shot at being CM, she would have cooperated happily,” the MLA said.

The current churn in Rajasthan BJP comes at a time when the Congress is yet to fully sort out its factional feuds. Gehlot has tried to strengthen his hold on the party and control the political narrative through his recently presented state budget that announced populist measures such as restoration of the Old Pension Scheme. Meanwhile, Pilot is still hoping that the high command will accede to his demand of being made the CM a year before the assembly polls due in November-December 2023.

Pilot loyalists have found a place in the Gehlot cabinet and the party organisation. However, Pilot, it is widely believed, is still miffed at the Gandhis – Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka – for not keeping their promise of ‘rewarding’ him for being patient and not rocking the party’s ship in Rajasthan.

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It is yet unclear what role the BJP central leadership has in mind for Raje. However, BJP sources admit that the Modi-Shah duo realise they can no longer test her patience – there have been recurring rumours of her toying with the idea of forming a breakaway faction if she isn’t adequately rehabilitated – and may bring her back either as state BJP chief or LoP.

Insiders also claim that even if Raje is not brought back as party chief or LoP, some of her detractors may be relieved of their posts and be replaced with people of her choosing. She is also expected to have a final say in the party’s poll strategy and selection of candidates.

New-found aggression

A BJP leader also pointed out that a key reason for the party’s 2018 defeat was the central leadership’s decision to reject several candidates suggested by her. “Unlike the Congress, which lost two elections to Raje badly, we did not perform so poorly and still had 73 MLAs. A majority of these were handpicked by Raje. However, on at least 35 seats, the high command replaced candidates of her choice with those suggested by the likes of Poonia and others. Almost all of them lost,” the leader said.

Raje, for now, is keeping her counsel, dropping no hints of what assurances she has received in her meetings with Modi, Shah and Nadda. But her new-found aggression in taking on the Gehlot government and her intensified public outreach programmes signal an imminent comeback.