Why did Eknath Shinde and his men go to far-off Guwahati?

Among all the goings on in Maharashtra politics right now, one thing has raised eyebrows – Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde and his group of rebel MLAs leaving Surat in the neighbouring Gujarat to a distant Guwahati in Assam.

What was the compelling reason behind Shinde and his group flying over 2,000 km to Guwahati? More so when, like Assam, Gujarat too is ruled by the BJP, the party which is widely believed to have been behind the so-called mutiny?

Follow The Federal’s LIVE coverage of the political crisis in Maharashtra

It’s this very ‘long’ distance that seems to be the reason. Shinde had first camped in Surat, which is very well-connected with Mumbai. As a result, as soon as his ‘mutiny’ on Tuesday became public knowledge, the Uddhav Thackery-Shiv Sena group started sending leaders to Surat to mediate in an effort to bring the rebels back to the fold.

This obviously did not suit those who wanted to bring the government down. As a result, a decision would have been taken to shift Shinde and his group to a safer place. Options could have been many – Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar, Bhopal, Lucknow and Bengaluru among the most obvious ones. All four are capital of states ruled by a ‘friendly’ BJP. 

Also read: What next in Maharashtra? Here are 8 scenarios that could play out

But the fact that a far-off Guwahati was chosen points at much thought given to this choice.

The aim seems to have been to take the group as far away from Mumbai so that not only Uddhav’s emissaries would find it difficult to reach out to the rebel MLAs, but any chance of some rebel MLAs having a second thought could be nipped in the bud. After all, if Shinde could convince MLAs to rebel, so could leaders close to Uddhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar convince some to change their position.

Guwahati is not only distant, but also has a BJP government headed by Himanta Biswa Sarma, the leader who had been instrumental in helping BJP expand its footprint in the North-East.

As such, Sarma is no stranger to political intrigue and has proven himself to be an astute politician – the BJP formed the government in Manipur in 2017 when the Congress was the largest party in the Assembly and the credit for this was given to Sarma.

For Sarma, this is promotion of sorts. Till now his sphere of influence was limited to the North-East. Now he has been given a larger responsibility by the party — for Maharashtra, which is a politically critical state. Moreover, as Mumbai is considered to be the financial capital of the country, who controls it becomes crucial for any political party.

Sarma, who has been facing criticism for his handling of the flood situation in Assam, has extended all security and help to Shinde’s group as can be easily made out from visuals streaming from Guwahati. The Shiv Sena group seems to be getting full state hospitality. And, if the revolt of Shinde succeeds, as is looking certain as of now, Sarma would have made the transition from being a regional leader to a national leader.