Maha survey reveals losers, gainers of NCP split; wake-up time for these parties

The BJP may still be the most preferred political party in Maharashtra but its popularity has suffered a huge dent after splitting the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Pawar family, reveals a recent survey carried out by the state’s Sakal media group.

While 26.8 per cent of the 74,330 respondents would still go with the BJP, this share has fallen drastically since the last such survey conducted by Sakal. At that time, 33.8 per cent of the respondents had expressed support for the saffron party.

Incidentally, the Congress and the Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray faction have retained their 19 per cent and 12.7 per cent shares, respectively, in the Sakal survey that covered all 288 assembly and 48 Lok Sabha segments.

Sympathy factor

If the survey is anything to go by, the BJP-engineered splits within the Shiv Sena and NCP, instead of weakening support for the parent parties, have actually shored up public sympathy. As a result, the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — which includes both Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP along with Congress, among others — stands a better chance of becoming the largest vote-puller if assembly polls are held today, with 41.5 per cent respondents willing to vote for it as against 37.4 per cent for the Maha Yuti comprising the BJP, NCP (Ajit Pawar), and Shiv Sena (Shinde).

Also read: Days after rebellion, Ajit Pawar meets uncle Sharad Pawar, proposes to keep party united

Aji Pawar may have the backing of the majority of NCP MLAs, but the same cannot be said about the people. The loyalty of Maharashtra’s voters seems to be with the veteran Sharad Pawar who commands 14.9 per cent of the vote share in the survey against the mere 5.7 per cent for his nephew’s faction.

The picture is the same with the fractured Shiv Sena. While the Uddhav Thackeray faction has the preference of 12.7 per cent voters, the Eknath Shinde faction has a mere 4.9 per cent, a notch down from the earlier 5.5 per cent.

CM face

However, the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis remains the preferred choice for Chief Minister, with 21.9 per cent voters preferring him. Uddhav Thackeray is close behind, though, with 19.4 per cent preferring to see him in the CM’s chair. Around 9.5 per cent would like to see Ajit Pawar as the Chief Minister, while Shinde has the same voter share as does Sharad Pawar’s daughter and NCP working president Supriya Sule — 8.5 per cent.

Despite the drop in voter preference, the BJP still has a lot to cheer ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. A whopping 47.9 per cent of the respondents said they would choose the same party for both the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha polls, while 27.3 per cent said they would vote differently. And it’s the BJP that has the support of 65 per cent of voters, while 19 per cent indicated the opposite. The remaining 16 per cent were undecided.

Also read: Sena (UBT) calls Fadnavis ‘tainted’ again; says BJP not the party it was during Vajpayee’s time

No credit for splits

The survey also sought voter’s opinions regarding splits within parties. As many as 43.6 per cent of the voters agreed with Sharad Pawar, while nephew Ajit’s stand had the support of 23.1 per cent. As many as 33.3 per cent of voters were undecided. Understandably, the results varied with party leanings, with NCP voters primarily supporting Sharad Pawar and BJP voters going with Ajit.

However, a huge chunk of the respondents (80.9 per cent) opposed the formation of splinter groups within parties to join the ruling party, with 38.7 per cent even thinking that leaders who switch sides after elections should resign and contest the polls again. As many as 30.1 per cent seemed to believe that such leaders should be permanently banned from contesting elections.

Public dislike seemed to be the most prominent for the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena. Of the Shiv Sena supporters, 39 per cent believe that the Shinde group MLAs should resign and contest again, while 33 per cent stated they should be permanently banned from contesting polls. Only 12 per cent of the surveyed voters supported their decision.