TN local body polls: AIADMK’s judgment errors worked in BJP’s favour

When actor-turned-politician MG Ramachandran (MGR) floated the party AIADMK, its thumb rule was to act in the exact opposite way as the DMK. It appears that the current leadership of the party, O Panneerselvam (OPS) and Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), have decided to follow the norm even in managing their coalition.

While the DMK has kept its allies united from the 2019 parliamentary elections to 2021 Assembly polls to 2022 urban local body polls, the AIADMK’s alliance has broken into smithereens. The not-so-deliberate severing of ties with one of its major allies, the BJP, hasn’t borne any fruit for the AIADMK, whereas the BJP has gained by standing alone.

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The DMK and its allies together polled nearly 50 per cent of the votes in the local body polls, while the AIADMK got just 25.15 per cent. Its other allies that chose to contest independently got vote shares in single digits — BJP 5.41 per cent, PMK 1.51 per cent and DMDK 0.77 per cent.

The allies in the ruling party had no choice but to continue in the alliance despite being offered fewer seats than what they had demanded. It is interesting to note that these parties had faced the 2011 local body elections independently.

Errors and more errors

The AIADMK leadership was always at the receiving end of veiled and not-so-veiled barbs for not standing up to the BJP. It was called the ‘B Team’ of the BJP. Its handling of issues such as NEET and New Education Policy, and its inability to defend party icons such as MGR from being appropriated by the BJP, punctured its opportunities in the 2019 parliamentary elections. But it appears the AIADMK didn’t realise its fallacy, and continued with its alliance with the BJP even in the 2021 Assembly election.

Later, to bring in some damage control, the AIADMK distanced itself from the BJP. But this didn’t work well for the party either. It kept mum when the BJP raised a ruckus over the alleged suicide of a girl student in Thanjavur, claiming it was due to forced religious conversion. The silence it maintained on that issue, and its non-participation in the all-party meeting on NEET, made a section of its vote bank immensely unhappy.

The party thought if it declines to share seats according to the BJP’s demand, the latter would choose to contest alone, and it was right. After the debacle in the Assembly elections, the AIADMK was looking for a way to distance itself from the BJP. That’s why it deliberately offered the saffron party fewer seats, and the BJP knew this only too well, said political commentator Pongalur Manikandan.

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“There is no surprise in the DMK keeping its allies united because all of them are against the BJP. But in the AIADMK coalition, the PMK went alone because it didn’t get the number of wards it wanted. Its other allies were nowhere seen in action for a long time and the AIADMK was reluctant to share more seats with them,” he said.

BJP’s inroads in Tamil Nadu

However, one interesting thing is, Manikandan added, that the poll results have shown that the BJP has indeed made inroads in Tamil Nadu and its alliance is a must for the AIADMK.

“In the 2024 (Parliament) and 2026 (Assembly) elections, while there would be no major change in the DMK alliance, there would be a considerable change in the AIADMK alliance. The BJP may not need the support of the AIADMK but it would be the other way round by then,” he said.

On the other hand, the PMK chose to contest the polls independently, stating that the AIADMK has failed to act as an Opposition party. But the real reason could be the latter’s reluctance to pursue the case of 10.5 per cent reservation for Vanniyars in the Supreme Court. Though it was the only major party which came out with a proper election manifesto focussing the urban issues, the PMK failed to draw votes even in places once considered its bastions.

Loss of key vote banks

So, what made AIADMK’s alliance disintegrate? Will this trend continue in the 2024 parliamentary elections? What are the steps the AIADMK should take to keep its allies united?

“In all the elections conducted in 2011, 2014 and 2016, the AIADMK contested independently. It was from the day of the current AIADMK leadership’s association with the BJP, that the party started to lose its Muslim minority votes continuously. That’s the reason why it chose to distance itself from the BJP,” said KC Palanisamy, a former AIADMK MP.

He added that though the AIADMK didn’t have an alliance with BJP in the local body polls, EPS repeated in his campaigns that the party is still in the NDA coalition. His speeches supporting issues such as One Nation One Election are also the reason why the party’s vote share plunged to 25.15 per cent, said Palanisamy.

“Even in its worst defeat the AIADMK’s vote share has not fallen below 28 per cent in the past. It has earned the wrath of OBCs and MBCs following its decision of providing 10.5 per cent reservation to Vanniyars, which was reflected in the Assembly elections. The AIADMK tried to do a course correction by not continuing with its alliance with the PMK in the urban local body polls. But even then AIADMK failed to earn the trust of the people,” he added.

“Besides, in many of the wards, the candidates were not funded by the party to meet their election expenses. Also, instead of having a full-fledged campaign across the State, both EPS and OPS campaigned only in the 21 corporations. These reasons further accelerated the defeat of the AIADMK. The leaders lost in their own soil, like Edappadi and Periyakulam,” said Palanisamy.

BJP’s numbers and claims

Initially, it was claimed that the BJP had secured 3 per cent of the vote share in this poll. But a couple of days later, the data on the exact number of votes polled came out and it showed that the saffron party had secured 5.41 per cent vote share. It won 22 corporation ward councillors, 56 municipality ward members and 230 town panchayat ward members. In 2011, it had 222 members in all.

However, the party’s claim of emerging as the third major party is false because with 12.03 per cent of vote share, the independent candidates secured the third place. On the other hand, it is true that the BJP has pushed the Congress behind it. If one doesn’t consider ‘independent’ candidates as political party contestants, then the BJP’s claim of securing the third place is true.

But these numbers should be taken with caveats. First, the BJP increased its vote share just to 0.7 per cent from 2011, in which it stood independently. Even this increase was possible because of its victory in Kanyakumari district. Secondly, the Congress won 73 corporation councillors, 151 municipality ward members and 368 town panchayat ward members.

According to senior journalist Arul Ezhilan, the AIADMK fielded ‘dummy’ candidates in 18 out of 200 wards in Chennai, in which the BJP came in second. “By fielding dummy candidates, the AIADMK indirectly entered into an alliance with the BJP. The BJP candidates lost their deposits in 82 wards out of 100 wards in Coimbatore, which the BJP proudly calls it its forte,” he said.

Congress vs BJP

It’s true that the Congress was able to win in most of the wards because of its alliance with the DMK. But the party contested a limited number of seats — 122 corporation wards out of 1,374, 385 municipalities out of 3,843, and 863 town panchayats out of 7,621. Whereas, the BJP contested in 1,134 corporation wards, 1,775 municipality wards and 2,685 town panchayat wards.

“Even after contesting in a large number of wards, the BJP was able to win in a smaller number of seats than the Congress, which contested in fewer seats than the BJP.  However, if the Congress and the BJP faced the elections independently, even then the Congress would have more vote share than the BJP,” said Ezhilan.

The AIADMK’s loss turned out to be the BJP’s gain. The AIADMK can no more rely on Christian and Muslim votes as some of the senior AIADMK leaders like CVe Shanmugam and KP Munusamy claim, said political commentator Raveendran Duraisamy.

“While the DMK has taken a strong stand on anti-conversion law, the BJP has taken the opposite stand on that front. Similarly, the DMK and its allies took an anti-NEET stand and the BJP took a pro-NEET stand. In issues like these, the debate was between the DMK and the BJP. The AIADMK was left with no choice. They were unable to take a stand on these issues and that has affected them largely,” he said.