Erode East bypoll: AIAIDMK rout poses major challenge to Palaniswami

Former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), whose clout within the AIADMK went up last week following a favourable Supreme Court verdict, is down in the dumps after his party’s dismal showing in the Erode by-election.

A defeat was a foregone conclusion but what has shocked the beleaguered AIADMK and its ally BJP is the wide victory margin of the Congress, which bagged a whopping 1,10,156 votes as opposed to 43,923 of the AIADMK.

O Paneerselvam (OPS), another former Chief Minister expelled from the AIADMK, and AIADMK convenor VK Sasikala, a pretender to J Jayalalithaa’s legacy, have begun to sharpen their knives to mount a fresh attack on Palaniswami.

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Paneerselvam is now testing the waters in courts by deputing his supporter PH Manoj Pandian, who on Thursday filed a civil suit against the July 2022 expulsion of Panneerselvam and his supporters from the party and appointment of Palaniswami as the interim General Secretary.

Palaniswami’s foes

“A united AIADMK would have ensured victory for the party,” Sasikala said, extending tacit support to Panneerselvam, who is said to be close to the BJP.

The Erode East constituency, part of the Kongu region in Tamil Nadu, is considered a bastion of Palaniswami. So, the defeat on Thursday is considered his personal rout.

What should also alarm EPS and BJP is the performance of Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) of Seeman that propagates sub-nationalism and anti-north Indian sentiments. 

The NTK won over 10,000 votes, marginalising the DMDK, the party headed by yesteryear star Vijayakanth. The latter scored only 1,432 votes and lost its security deposit. It is clear that DMDK’s slide is directly benefiting Seeman’s NTK.

Major setback 

The poor electoral performance is bound to raise question marks over Palaniswami’s ability to win elections though he had come out with flying colours in managing AIADMK’s factional feuds.

After the Supreme Court verdict that held the July meeting of the AIADMK General Council valid, Palaniswami had planned a statewide campaign from March 5 to strengthen his hold over the party. The Erode loss is now likely to make him a bit defensive.

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AIADMK leaders are consoling themselves saying by-elections always go in favour of the ruling party. However, that may not be enough for Palaniswamy to wish away the loss; he may have to do a lot of explaining.

It is clear that the Palaniswamy faction possessing the potent ‘Two Leaves’ symbol and also his strong pitch against the DMK have not had any major impact on the voters.

Anti-incumbency?

His associate and AIADMK leader D Jayakumar had claimed earlier that anti-incumbency would help the party in Erode. 

Money and muscle power did play a role in the election. The Election Commission received 725 complaints of gifts distribution. The police registered 75 cases. More than ₹51 lakh unaccounted cash was seized. Tokens for distributing cash were seized from the car of a DMK functionary.

Although AIADMK leaders have been stunned into silence after the election setback, its losing candidate KS Thennarasu claimed that money power had won over democracy. 

RK Nagar contest

The Palaniswami faction can console itself by saying that it has, in the past, overcome far worse political crises. AIADMK leaders cite how Palaniswami was able to spring back after the brutal loss in the 2017 RK Nagar byelection, which took place a year after the death of former CM Jayalalithaa.

Just when Palaniswami, then the Chief Minister, thought the RK Nagar contest would be a cakewalk, TTV Dhinakaran, Sasikala’s nephew, took away a whopping 40,000 votes, dealing a big blow to EPS.

Many thought Palaniswami wouldn’t recover from that shock defeat. But he went from strength to strength. His colleagues hope he will be able to weave the same magic after the recent drubbing too.

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But ever since the AIADMK loss in the 2021 Tamil Nadu assembly elections, Palaniswami has been blamed for the slide in the party’s vote share.

Fading support

The AIADMK slipped to 33.29 per cent votes in the 2021 assembly polls, from 40.88 per cent votes in 2016.

Congress state President KS Alagiri hit out at the AIADMK saying the Erode verdict was against the Dravidian party’s alliance with the BJP.

The outcome has given OPS a chance again to try to wrest control of the party despite previous failures. His supporters point out that the Supreme Court has cleared the General Council meeting but not the decisions arrived at.

Political observers believe that Palaniswami and Pannerselvam will now try to beat each other in courts and the Election Commission. The former shrewdly passed by-laws in the General Council meeting last year that clearly favoured electing him as full-time general secretary, said Jagadheeswaran D, a political analyst and a former leader of the Lok Satta party.

“Now Palaniswami has to get elected as the general secretary. If the Election Commission too accepts it, Pannerselvam would be left with no option,” he said.

Court battles

So, Panneerselvam is trying to put spokes into such an effort through a Madras High Court case.

In the past, Palaniswami’s stature in the party did not go down despite the losses in elections. He was seen to appease the BJP government at the Centre but never went overboard. He wanted to carve himself into a larger-than-life personality — like his predecessors MG Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa.

Now he has the unenviable task of holding to the post he has crafted for himself. Especially, protecting the Thevar community vote bank is going to be a tough task for Palaniswami with his Gounder community identity. As he had expelled two prominent faces of the Thevar community, Sasikala and Pannerselvam, he is now under pressure to find replacements.

Already, the AIADMK has lost a chunk of its formidable vote bank. A whole lot of voters who supported AIADMK just for Jayalalithaa may not be backing Palaniswami. Known as a street-smart politician, Palaniswami will be waiting for the right moment to strike.