Bypoll fallout: AIADMK govt in Tamil Nadu may stay afloat

If early trends for bypolls in Tamil Nadu continue, it can safely be assumed that the AIADMK government has managed to survive by the skin of its teeth. With the ruling party requiring just eight seats to obtain a simple majority, the mission appears to have been accomplished.

As of now, the AIADMK has 114 MLAs, including the Speaker. Even if the three MLAs, against whom showcause notices have been issued, were to vote against the government in the event of a no-confidence vote, the EPS-OPS combine would need just eight votes, which should not be difficult to obtain if the trends continue.

Until 10 am on May 23, the DMK and the AIADMK were in a neck-to-neck race with both leading in 11 constituencies each out of 22 Assembly constituencies that went for by-polls in two phases on April 18 and May 19. A close fight was on between the two in several constituencies including Ponamalle, Andipatti, Manamadurai and Ambur where the  vote difference was less than 100.

The AIADMK was leading in Andipatti, Harur (SC), Hosur, Manamadurai (SC), Nilakottai (SC), Sattur, Sulur, Sholingur, Vilathikulam while the DMK was ahead in Ambur, Aravakurichi, Gudiyattam (SC), Ottapidaram (SC), Paapireddipetti, Perambur, Periyakulam (SC), Poonamallee (SC), Thanjavur, Thiruporur and Tiruvarur.

It is to be noted that a year ago, 18 Assembly constituencies fell vacant after the Assembly speaker disqualified 18 MLAs owing allegiance to the sidelined AIADMK leader TTV Dhinakaran.

In late 2018, two other constituencies—Thiruparamkundram and Tiruvarur—fell vacant owing to the death of sitting MLAs. Tiruvarur was represented by DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi.

In 2019, Hosur fell vacant after a special court convicted its MLA P Balakrishna Reddy while Sulur MLA Kanakaraj died of an illness.