Kingmaker JD(S) plans a comeback, keeps Cong, BJP guessing

Janata Dal (S), the key regional party in Karnataka with a strong Vokkaliga voter base in Old Mysore region, seems to be gaining ground as it keeps the Congress and BJP silent and guessing.

Both the national parties are not attacking JDS in order to maintain a relationship which could come in handy in forming a government in case of a hung assembly in the 2023 elections. Both the Congress and BJP have had coalition governments with the JD)S) and have broken up too.

Both Congress and BJP can, if they get enough numbers, form the government on their own, but they, however, prefer to keep JD(S) supremo HD Devegowda and his former CM-son HD Kumaraswamy in good humour.

However, for JD(S), a fractured mandate is a favourable verdict as it cannot form the government on its own and it can play kingmaker in the state.

BJP sources say that it may be difficult for it to form the government on its own unless it poaches Congress or JD(S) MLAs. They, however, stressed that their main intention is to keep Congress away from power. So, forming a coalition government with JDS would be an option they will keep if they are not able to win power on their own.

Congress scenario

The Congress’s central leadership has a good rapport with JD(S) as former president Sonia Gandhi has long-standing ties with Deve Gowda.

Rahul Gandhi may, however, find himself in a spot having had no such relationship with JDS leaders, and more so, after he called JDS “B team of BJP” during the 2018 Assembly elections, which hurt JD(S) leaders.

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However, the new president of Congress Mallikarjun Kharge has good ties with Devegowda and Kumaraswamy as the latter had mentioned Kharge’s name for the CM post while forming a coalition government with Congress in 2018 after the Siddaramaiah government lost power to a hung assembly and later when that regime fell to BJP’s poaching.

Siddaramaiah vs JDS

According to JD(S) sources, the party can be a player in 2023 only if it wins 40-odd MLAs. Their largest opportunity lies in the Old Mysore region, where the AHINDA leader and former CM Siddaramaiah holds fort. And that is where the key hurdle too lies.

Siddaramaiah is emerging again as a big leader, consolidating the Backwards, Minority and Dalit votes in his favour, especially after his birthday celebration.

Siddaramaiah and JDS leaders have been at odds in the past, for various reasons. One of these includes Siddaramaiah being projected as an anti-Vokkaliga leader by the JD(S) for attacking the Devegowda family aggressively and for making Rahul Gandhi term JDS a B Team of BJP.

Siddaramaiah needs to grow his AHINDA base while JDS needs to strengthen its Vokkaliga foundation. Amid this fight, the BJP is also trying hard to woo voters in the region, and it may end up hurting Congress by dividing the Backward and Dalit votes.

No attack advice

Siddaramaiah had earlier remarked that there was an internal agreement between JD(S) and BJP. A senior Congress leader told The Federal that Kumaraswamy had held secret meetings with the BJP for a week while Congress was busy with its Bharat Jodo Yatra. However, Congress leaders, including new president Mallikarjun Kharge and state chief DK Shivakumar, want to keep the options open with JD(S).

As such, neither Congress nor BJP has attacked JDS recently. Even Siddaramaiah has maintained silence after he was reportedly advised by Rahul Gandhi and the party’s political strategy team. The advice was that attacking JDS would only damage the party’s prospects and it would drift the party away from Vokkaligas.

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Moreover, there is a bigger chance of attracting Vokkaligas into the party fold as KPCC chief hails from the same community and the same Old Mysore region. It is said that Siddaramaiah has softened his stand on Deve Gowda, and he met the leader recently to enquire about his well-being. But he is said to have the aim of wooing Vokkaligas to Congress.

GT Devegowda’s importance

Siddaramaiah has been trying to patch up with his old friend-turned-foe GT Devegowda, a strong Vokkaliga leader in Mysore (Chamudenshwari constituency) and invited him to Congress. GT Devegowda was instrumental in the defeat of Siddaramaiah in the 2018 elections in Chamundeshwari constituency.

But now GTD was trying to get MLA tickets for him and his son from Congress and there were talks regarding this. However, JD(S) leaders Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy went to GTD’s house at Ontikoppal in Mysore during a party workshop and stated that he will not leave the JDS.

Interestingly GTD was not happy with Kumaraswamy and left the party. But HD Devegowda’s intervention made him stay, said a JDS leader.

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The JD(S) has planned the ‘Pancha Ratna’ Yatra to mobilise its voter base, the Vokkaligas, in old Mysore region. It will start in Kurudumale in Mulbagal Taluk in Kolar district on Kannada Rajyotsava day. However, it is said that they symbolically kickstarted their yatra with the planned caravan on Thursday (October 27) at Basavanagudi Temple after the advice of the family astrologers of the JD(S) supremo.

Also, the National Executive Committee of JDS is set to re-elect HD Deve Gowda as its national president.