Karnataka polls: Why did Siddaramaiah decide to contest from Kolar?

The Opposition leader and former Chief Minister of Karnataka, Siddaramaiah, who is keenly eyeing the CM post again, has decided to contest from Kolar, which is largely an AHINDA (Minorities, Backward Class and Dalit) populated belt.

This announcement comes in the wake of his opponents constantly taking potshots at him for harbouring a desire to become the CM despite not having an assured constituency to fight the elections. Earlier, Siddaramaiah had a strong base in the Chamundeshwari Assembly constituency and the Varuna constituency. The latter came into existence the 2008 Assembly elections after a delimitation exercise.

Siddaramaiah has won from Varuna constituency in Mysuru twice. However, in the 2018 elections, he wanted his son Yateendra to contest from Varuna and he fought from Chamundeshwari only to be defeated by JD (S) candidate G T Deve Gowda.

However, since he had an inclination that he may be defeated because of his statements against the Vokkaligas at that time and also the threat from party insiders, he had contested from Badami, a constituency in north Karnataka as well. So, when he lost in Chamundeshwari, he managed to scrape through and win Badami with a narrow margin of 1,696 votes. In fact, this had saved him from exiting electoral politics at that time.

Today, Siddaramaiah has again built his charisma as a mass leader and proved that he could attract the masses after his birthday bash at Davanagere.

Also read: Siddaramaiah to contest Karnataka Assembly polls from Kolar

Forces against Siddaramaiah

But, political sources admitted that at first, it seemed as if Siddaramaiah was confused about picking a constituency for himself in this year’s Assembly election. He had to make his moves carefully, considering that the Opposition parties, the BJP and JD(S) and even his opponents inside his own Congress party, are working behind the scenes to defeat and stop him from running for the CM post again.

In fact, the BJP’s strategy is to make the leader concentrate on winning his own seat rather than run around to ensure the victory of other party candidates. Taking into account these challenges, Siddaramaiah decided to select safe constituencies, including Chamrajpet, a Muslim-dominated area, Kolar or Koppala, which is again a Kuruba-dominated constituency and his present constituency Badami.

But, he was a little wary to contest from Chamarajpet, a Muslim-dominated constituency, because of the BJP mockingly trying to portray him as a Muslim face by referring to him as ‘Siddramulla Khan’. Moreover, taking off from the Ranagayana play, The Real Dreams of Tipu Sultan, the BJP was also trying to release a book titled ‘Siddaramaiah’s real dreams’ and portray him as Tipu Sultan.

So, according to his close aides, this is another reason he had decided to contest from Kolar, an AHINDA base and also a Kuruba-dominated constituency. He has support from the Vokkaliga leader Krishna Byregowda, former speaker Ramesh Kumar and others on this decision. The only threat comes from Dalits, as former Union minister H Muniappa, who hails from the same place, has been their leader. He is opposing Siddaramaiah within the party since he never got the support of the Siddaramaiah camp he had fought the parliamentary elections and lost.

But this time, before announcing his contest from the Kolar constituency,  Siddaramaiah held a meeting with Muniappa and got his nod, said party sources.

Also read: Karnataka: Book on Congress leader Siddaramaiah kicks up a row

Political calculations

Siddaramaiah, who is in the CM race, desperately needs a victory. His private and party survey indicated that he could easily win from Kolar.  Before Siddaramaiah contested in Kolar, he had surveyed the constituency, which seemed to be in favour of the veteran Congress leader. Moreover, the AHINDA voters, which are around 76 per cent, form a majority in the Kolar Assembly constituency and Siddaramaiah is confident of getting their votes.

Siddaramaiah’s close friends, however, advised him to contest Badami. But his close friend Ramesh Kumar had invited him to contest from Kolar and Krishna Byre Gowda, MLC Nazir Ahmed, Anil, MLA Narayana Swamy and others supported this choice.

The SC/ST votes are around 60,000 to 70,000, while Muslims are around 50,000. It is also estimated that the Kuruba community voters who will vote in favour of  Siddaramaiah are 34,000, while the Vokkaliga voters are around 30,000. In such a situation, it is being analysed that he has a better chance of winning from Kolar.

BJP has no strong base in Kolar

At the same time, the BJP has no strong base in the Kolar constituency. In the last Assembly election, JD (S) candidate Srinivas Gowda contested and won by securing 82,788 votes. Varthur Prakash, a former aide of Siddaramaiah, who belongs to the Kuruba community and contested from the Congress party, secured 35,544 votes.

But, BJP candidate Venkata Chalapathy got only 12,458 votes. Traditionally, BJP is not strong in this area. But, now because Varthur Prakash has moved to the BJP, the saffron party can actually fight back. However, Srinivasa Gowda, who wields considerable clout in the area, is backing Siddaramaiah this time. And the Kurubas consider Siddaramaiah as a CM candidate and they will support him, said a source from the Siddaramaiah camp.

Also read: Book on me is to humiliate me ahead of elections, totally defamatory: Siddaramaiah

The Varthur threat

BJP’s Varthur Prakash is currently viewed as Siddaramaiah’s opponent and a key threat in the Kolar Assembly constituency. However, BJP is yet to decide on Varthur Prakash’s candidature from Kolar. Varthur Prakash is confident that he will win but his power has waned and allegations against him have dented the charisma of the two-time independent MLA. This will be a boon for Siddaramaiah as well, sources said.

Varthur Prakash was earlier considered to be Siddaramaiah’s disciple and sources said that backdoor talks may have happened between Varthur and Sidddaramaiah and the septuagenarian kept all this mind while zeroing in a safe place like Kolar.

The challenges in Kolar

The major reason behind Siddaramaiah’s delay in deciding on whether to contest in Kolar or not were the differences between the Congress leaders in the constituency. The disagreement between former Speaker Ramesh Kumar and former MP KH Muniyappa created confusion for Siddaramaiah.

BJP candidate Varthur Prakash cannot be ignored even if his charisma has diminished. Varthur had won twice as an independent candidate from Kolar. He got the third position in the last election. But this time he is likely to enter the constituency as a BJP candidate. If he contests Kolar, it is said that he can give Siddaramaiah a good fight.

Since Ahinda votes are important in the constituency, Varthur, who belongs to the Kuruba community, is already trying to woo the Kuruba votes.

BJP is determined to defeat Siddaramaiah no matter what. Besides, JDS is also trying to defeat Siddaramaiah. On the other hand, the ongoing internal battle within the Congress for the post of CM may affect Kolar as well, as KPCC chief DK Shivakumar‘s camp may also try to play spoilsport.

However, Siddaramaiah, a shrewd politician, has probably considered all possibilities before announcing his constituency. After all, he had tested the waters by signalling that he would contest from Varuna, Chamundeshwari, Chamarajapet, Koppal and Kolar for a year and  then finally picked Kolar.