Karnataka conundrum: Congress likely to make Siddaramaiah the Chief Minister

The Congress leadership appears to be veering towards endorsing Siddaramaiah over DK Shivakumar for the hotly contested post of Karnataka Chief Minister.

Shivakumar, who as Karnataka Congress chief, led his party to its best victory since 1989 — the party won 135 of the state’s 224 seats, on May 13, with an over 42 per cent vote share — may be forced to contend with the deputy chief minister’s post, at least for now.

Sources privy to ongoing discussions over the leadership question told The Federal that a formal announcement on who will lead the party’s newly minted government in Karnataka is expected on Tuesday. The swearing-in ceremony of the CM-designate, possibly along with a few ministers, will take place on Thursday (May 18) as decided by the party earlier.

The three central observers — Sushil Kumar Shinde, Jitendra Singh and Deepak Babaria — that the party had dispatched to Bangalore on Sunday to seek views of the newly elected MLAs on their choice of CM have submitted their report to Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge.

The observers will have another round of meetings with Kharge on Tuesday, following which greater clarity on the blueprint for government formation is likely to emerge. Though the Shivakumar faction claims that an overwhelming majority of the legislators had voted in favour of the strongman from Kanakapura, sources told The Federal that more than 80 secret ballots were cast in Siddaramaiah’s favour.

Siddaramaiah in New Delhi; DK stays back in Bengaluru

Siddaramaiah arrived in Delhi earlier on Monday but has not met Kharge as yet. Meanwhile, Shivakumar, who was also asked to be in the capital to meet the leadership, stayed back in Bengaluru, claiming he was suffering from a stomach infection and dispatched his brother DK Suresh to meet Kharge in Delhi. However, it’s learnt that Shivakumar will fly to Delhi on Tuesday (May 16) to meet Kharge.

Shivakumar has spoken to a number of media outfits signalling his desire for the chief ministership and even asserting during an interview with NDTV that the party leadership “should have the courtesy to acknowledge who is behind the win”.

However, Shivakumar’s “best of luck” message for Siddaramaiah, conveyed through the media, has been taken by many to conclude that he is resigned to the eventuality of losing out to his rival, howsoever grudgingly.

Party sources say, if taken, the decision to anoint Siddaramaiah would be guided not solely on the basis of support for him among the party MLAs but in large measure by the high command’s fear that the Kuruba leader and Varuna MLA could sabotage the party and its government – or, in a worst case scenario, even trigger a split – if his claim to the CM’s post is denied.

In a sense, Shivakumar, if he loses out in the race to his intra-party rival, would be “suffering the consequences of being a staunch party loyalist”, said a senior Congress leader, adding that the high command is convinced that “DKS will never betray the Gandhi family”.

Things that work in Siddaramaiah’s favour

There are also several “hard-nosed pragmatic political considerations” that appear to be favouring Siddaramaiah’s claim for the top post. Sources told The Federal that the Congress high command and a majority of the newly elected party MLAs believe that slighting Siddaramaiah, a mass leader with a pan-Karnataka influence and a formidable support base among his AHINDA caste/community formula, could “prove very costly” for the party in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Shivakumar, on the other hand, say Congress sources, “has his support within the state’s Vokkaliga belt of Old Mysore and though his support is crucial for a stable government and good performance in the Lok Sabha polls, it is Siddaramaiah who has a greater ability to marshal voters, and an even greater ability to cause damage to us if he is not kept in good humour”.

A party leader who is involved in resolving the Karnataka stalemate told The Federal that the Congress leadership would “reach out to Shivakumar on Tuesday with certain assurances”.

Sources said Shivakumar could be offered the deputy CM’s post for now – this is also something Siddaramaiah is learnt to be insistent upon – with some assurance that he would be elevated as CM in the months following the Lok Sabha polls. Shivakumar, sources close to him say, is wary of such an assurance as he suspects Siddaramaiah would, like Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh, not give up the CM’s chair mid-term. The Kanakapura MLA is also “not very keen” on being made deputy CM unless the post comes coupled with important portfolios being allocated to him in the cabinet.

Ironically, if Siddaramaiah beats Shivakumar to the post, he would also be doing so despite reservations expressed against his anointment by almost the entire senior rung of the Congress’s Karnataka unit, including former chief minister Veerappa Moily and veterans such as G. Parameshwara, Muniappa and BK Hariprasad. Some say even Kharge, had it not been for the political compulsions favouring Siddaramaiah’s chances, would have favoured Shivakumar. These leaders continue to see Siddaramaiah, a Janata Dal (Secular) import, as an outsider and want the CM’s post to be given to Shivakumar, a loyal and abiding Congressman.

With Sonia Gandhi, who Shivakumar holds in high esteem, choosing to stay off the decision-making exercise and her children, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, yet to speak to Kharge on the matter, the current scenario appears stacked in favour of Siddaramaiah almost entirely owing to his ability for holding the party hostage because of his mass leader stature.

A party veteran says the “only thing that can turn the tide in Shivakumar’s favour now is if the Gandhis endorse him over Siddaramaiah”. Will the Gandhis do that at a time when they have seen the grim repercussions of playing favourites in factional feuds by satraps playing out in Punjab and, at this very moment, in Rajasthan? We’ll know by Tuesday evening.