Karnataka Assembly polls: It’s Siddaramaiah vs BJP and JD(S) this time

The coming Assembly elections will be a triangular fight between the BJP, Congress and JD(S) in the old Mysuru region and a fight between BJP and Congress in the rest of Karnataka. In fact, it seems to be a straight fight between Siddaramaiah of the Congress versus BJP and JD(S)!

Because of several scams and anti-incumbency factors, the ruling BJP is on the backfoot for a while, but the strategies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Union Home Minister Amit Shah cannot be neglected. As for the Congress, though the party’s central leadership is deemed to be weak, the situation in Karnataka is different.

In Karnataka, the Congress has strong leaders like AHINDA mass leader Siddaramaiah, Vokkaliga leader and KPCC chief DK Shivakumar, Dalit leader Dr G Parameshwara and also several second-line leaders. However, BJP, though nationally strong, doesn’t have good state leadership after former CM BS Yediyurappa fell out of favour.

Also read: Karnataka polls: Why did Siddaramaiah decide to contest from Kolar?

Siddaramaiah’s growing stature

Siddaramaiah has grown in stature compared to other leaders in his party and his charisma and leadership are helping the Congress to mobilise AHINDA and secular votes. It was the rally in Davangere held to celebrate his birthday in 2022 that made him the unquestionable leader in the Congress party.

Siddaramaiah, who is not personally accused of any serious corruption charge, is also the centre of discussions because of his ideological stance. Decisions taken during his tenure as CM – the Prohibition of Superstitions Act, efforts to establish a separate Lingayat religion and Tipu Jayanti celebrations – were intensely debated. The BJP is now trying to portray him as anti-Hindu by raising these issues.

The BJP camp is worried as its internal survey reports show that the Congress is moving ahead in the state. The BJP central leadership has tried to raise many issues concerning various communities and castes, but apart from its Hindutva agenda nothing seemed to have worked. According to a BJP leader, the Hindutva agenda is working more in the coastal and Malnad regions, but anti-incumbency factors and various scams are worrying the party.

Also read: JD(S) will grow beyond old Mysuru and get majority in Karnataka: Kumaraswamy

The BJP has no weapon in its hands other than the ED and CBI cases against Shivakumar. They tried to involve Siddaramaiah in several cases, but could not frame him legally. This has made Siddaramaiah’s position even stronger and he is considered to be the only person in the Congress who can dare to attack Prime Minister Modi and the Union Home Minister Amit Shah publicly. Political observers say that the moral strength of Siddaramaiah is a big plus when compared to any other party leader, though he also has faced some allegations of maladministration, etc.

Amit Shah’s visit

An insider of the state BJP told The Federal that the state unit is now depending on Modi and Amit Shah to improve its fortunes in assembly elections. Shah, during his recent three-day visit to Karnataka to attend government and party programmes, is said to have sketched out different election strategies to try for a “Congress mukt Karnataka”, but as of now it seems to be a difficult task.

The BJP has analysed that Siddaramaiah is the main strength of the Congress. Shivakumar for the BJP is an easy target as he is involved in several cases, but facing Siddaramaiah is a tough task. So, if the BJP could somehow corner Siddaramaiah, it will be the first step towards winning the elections. This seems to be the thinking behind calling Siddaramaiah an anti-Hindu so as to help BJP candidates to polarise votes in their respective constituencies. Relying on this strategy is also easy as the Congress leader does not pull his punches while criticising the RSS and pro-Hindu leaders.

Also read: Book on Congress leader Siddaramaiah kicks up a row

According to political grapevine, the BJP has taken a decision to aggressively target Siddaramaiah and corner him politically as the party thinks it will help in defeating the Congress. Also, by aggressively attacking Siddaramaiah, the BJP wants him to concentrate only on his constituency – as he did in the 2018 elections – which will reduce his stature of being a state-wide leader.

This strategy is said to behind the attempt to release the book ‘Siddaramaiah’s real dreams’ and paint him as pro-Tipu Sultan and pro-Muslim leader. However, minister Ashwatha Narayana’s move was stayed by the court. But, at the same time, Rangayana, a repertory in Mysuru organised a play called ‘Tipu’s real dreams’ – portraying Tipu Sultan in a negative way – and it was alleged that the artists tried to name Siddaramaiah indirectly saying that he was a pro-Tipu leader. A BJP source also said that soon the party will try to corner Siddaramaiah on his stand on issues like halal meat, cow-slaughter, consuming beef, etc.

JD(S) strategy

For the Janata Dal (S), defeating Siddaramaiah has a personal edge – Siddaramaiah was with the JD(S) before joining the Congress. There are rumours in political circles that the BJP and JD(S) have an ‘internal agreement’ to defeat the Congress by dividing secular votes and forming a coalition government by leading to a situation where no party manages to cross the magic number to form the government. However, a Congress leader said that not much importance could be attached to this.

The JD(S), which is more of a family party, has been targeting Siddaramaiah for many years after expelling him from the party. It targeted him in the 2018 assembly elections and as a result Siddaramaiah lost from the Chamudeshwari constituency. However, Siddaramaiah managed to win from Badami with a very narrow margin.

Also read: Book on me is to humiliate me ahead of elections, totally defamatory: Siddaramaiah

This time also, JD(S) is targeting Siddaramaiah as it feels that he was the reason behind the toppling of HD Kumaraswamy’s coalition government in 2019. The JD(S) strategy became evident when Kumaraswamy rushed to Kolar after Siddaramaiah announced that he will be contesting from there. He held meetings with Vokkaliga, OBC and minority leaders to form plans to defeat Siddaramaiah. He openly said that he will seek the help of Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of Dr BR Ambedkar, to mobilise Dalit votes for JD(S). At the same time, AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi is also planning to put his candidate from Kolar to divide minority votes. This is aimed at making Siddaramaiah concentrate only on his constituency during elections.

All these factors are making Karnataka elections a direct fight between Siddaramaiah and the BJP and JD(S). Clearly, Siddaramaiah’s leadership will be tested during the coming assembly elections.