2023 Karnataka polls: Amit Shah sets poll pitch to woo Vokkaligas in Old Mysuru

Karnataka’s Old Mysuru region has traditionally supported both Vokkaliga and backward class leaders. Former prime minister HD Deve Gowda, a Vokkaliga strongman, has maintained a hold over the region for nearly four decades. Former chief minister and the leader of the opposition in the assembly Siddaramaiah, who belongs to the backward Kuruba community, has represented  Varuna, the constituency which falls in the Old Mysuru region.

While the backward class has always supported Congress leaders, Vokkaligas’ share of votes is divided between Deve Gowda’s JD(S) and the Congress. The region, however, has been the BJP’s Achilles’ heel. The ruling party, which has always backed Lingayats, wants to enter the Vokkaliga fold, too. Ahead of the State Assembly elections in May 2023, it’s going all out to bolster its base in the Vokkaliga stronghold.

Also read: BJP faces Vokkaliga hurdle in Karnataka even as Cong, JD(S) enjoy edge

The BJP’s desperate bids include poaching Vokkaliga leaders from the Congress and the JD(S) to form the government, trying to project CN Aswathanarayana and R Ashok as its Vokkaliga face and also unveiling 108-feet Kempe Gowda statue at Bengaluru International Airport. During his two-day visit to Karnataka, Union Home Minister Amit Shah  held a rally at Vokkaliga heartland Mandya. It was a well-calculated move to prepare the groundwork to to woo Vokkaligas ahead of the 2023 Assembly elections.

Shah sets the poll pitch

Shah’s outreach acknowledged the fact that the BJP realises the importance of winning more seats in the Old Mysuru region where the fight has traditionally been between the JD(S) and Congress. Launching a blistering attack on the Congress and JD(S) in Mandya, he set the BJP’s poll pitch based on “development” and and the time-tested formula of Hindutva. Addressing a Jana Sankalpa rally, Shah dubbed Congress and JD(S) as “dynastic, corrupt and communal,” and urged voters to give the BJP an “opportunity” and “full majority”.  “When the Congress comes, Delhi becomes an ATM, and when JDS comes, it becomes a family ATM,” he said.  

By launching an attack on the JD(S), Shah surprised his own party leaders in the state. The BJP leaders in Karnataka have recently stopped targeting JD(S) and Deve Gowda family because of two reasons. First, because the party wants to leave the room for future tie-ups in the eventuality of a fractured mandate in 2023. Two, because attacking the Deve Gowda family is tantamount to attacking the Vokkaligas. It was due to Deve Gowda’s influence among the Vokkaligas in the region that the KPCC chief DK Shivakumar could not become a Vokkaliga leader beyond his home turf Kanakapura. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s programme to unveil the Kempe Gowda statue recently had attracted the ire from the Vokkaliga community for neglecting Deve Gowda.

Also read: Why BJP top brass ultimately caved in to the ‘BSY’ factor in Karnataka politics

But it has come to light several times that Deve Gowda and former CM HD Kumaraswamy are a bit close to Shah and Modi. Sources in the BJP say that the party’s high command has asked its state unit not to make any negative statements against JD(S) and Deve Gowda family.

The sudden turn 

Taking a sudden turn, Shah openly attacked the Deve Gowda family as JD(S)’ family ATM. Karnataka politics is different from other state politics and the Union Home Minister making a statement in Mandya is notable. In the 2018 elections, Rahul’s statement against JD(S) as “BJP’s B Team” proved costly for the Congress. Will Shah’s comment do the same thing to the BJP? According to political analysts, whatever the hidden agenda of the BJP  and the JD(S) be, the statement will hurt the Deve Gowda family and they will see to it that the BJP faces the music. But the fact is that the BJP has no Vokkaliga vote base like Congress or JD(S).

If so, it seems Shah wants Vokkaliga votes to be mobilised towards JD(S). Another interesting factor is that whenever Siddaramaiah becomes strong, Vokkaliga votes also go to JD(S) in the Old Mysuru region. Shah is aware that Siddaramaiah has gained more strength as a leader of the backward class. Since Vokkaligas also go with JD(S) leaders, Shah might have intended that Vokkaligas get inclined towards JD(S).

According to the party surveys, the BJP government in the state is unlikely to retain power while the Congress stands a better chance. So, if JD(S) becomes strong, naturally the Assembly election will throw up fractured mandate. So, the BJP can form a coalition government. A senior leader said that Shah’s plans and strategies have been on these familiar lines.

No plan to change party’s state leadership 

Shah held a few rounds of discussion with the party leaders on how to go about the upcoming elections. Sources said that Shah has no plans to change the Basavaraj Bommai leadership in the state. As the party surveys showed its poor prospects in the elections, the BJP high command wants to support Bommai’s leadership rather than changing it five months before the election.

At the same time, according to party insiders, the BJP leaders still believe that Modi magic will hold Karnataka under its sway and it will help the party to come back to power. But it seems tough as the political atmosphere in Karnataka is different. When the Modi-Shah pair was at its peak, the BJP unit in Karnataka could not form the government on its own. It had to resort to poaching leaders from other parties. “This time, the Modi-Shah magic will not work, except in the coastal and a few Malnad districts. The part’s dream to achieve power again will not come true,” said a senior BJP leader.

Even though the local leaders are unhappy with CM Bommai, the Modi-Shah duo are unlikely to take the drastic step of changing the party’s chief ministerial face at this juncture. According to sources, the visits of Modi and Shah will become more frequent in the months to come and will continue till the election as the party’s Delhi leadership still believes that the duo can turn the tide in their favour after the election dates are announced.