Uncertainty over RJD-Congress alliance as Tejashwi pushes for a re-look

The 15-year-old alliance between the RJD and the Congress is under strain ever since the latter’s lacklustre performance in the Bihar Assembly election.

The grand alliance comprising the RJD, the Congress, the CPI (ML), the CPI and the CPI (M) won 110 seats in the 243-member Assembly in 2020, against the NDA’s 125. The NDA crossed the magic number of 122 by just three seats.

The Congress had contested 70 seats but won only 19, its ‘strike rate’ plummeting to 27 per cent from 65.85 per cent in 2015, when it contested the polls in alliance with the RJD and JD (U).

In 2020 the RJD, which contested 144 seats, won 75 – a strike rate of 52 per cent. Even the left parties improved their strike rate quite convincingly.

The strike rate of CPI (ML) jumped to 63.5 per cent against less than four in the 2015 polls. The CPI (M) and CPI improved their strike rate to 50 per cent and 33.33 per cent respectively. The CPI (ML) had won 12 out of 16 seats it contested in the last assembly election. Similarly, the CPI and CPI (M), which contested six and four seats respectively, won two seats each.

Notwithstanding these statistics, it is also true that both the RJD and the Congress need each other.

In 2000, the RJD had won 124 seats while the Congress bagged 24. The RJD then was benevolent enough to give the post assembly speaker to the Congress.

In the 2004 Lok Sabha election, the RJD and Congress together won 22 seats. Five years later though, the RJD won just four.

In 2015 when the Congress contested the assembly election in alliance with the RJD and JD (U), it won more than 50 per cent of the seats it contested – 27 out of 40, an improvement from four seats out of 243 seats contested in 2010.

But the Congress’ influence in Bihar politics continues to decline as the party never focused on the grassroots. With the Mandal politics getting dominant in the state, political space for the Congress shrank further as regional parties like the RJD and JD (U) took the maximum advantage of the emerging situation.

But it is also a fact that the Congress gives an edge to the RJD more in term of the people’s perception about its secular credentials than its vote share in the state.

Future of RJD-Congress Alliance in Bihar

The RJD-Congress relationship has been a matter of intense speculation. But despite hard posturing from the leaders of both parties, one thing is certain: The alliance is likely to survive.

The NDA’s return to the power after the last assembly election is mainly attributed to the Congress’ poor performance. It was a factor that virtually prompted Tejashwi, also the leader of the opposition in Bihar assembly, to re-think how much space it should concede to the grand old party.

Political analyst Dr Sanjay Kumar said Congress was following politics in Bihar without any programme and policy after the 1990s and was virtually surviving in the state on the RJD’s mercy.

He said Tejashwi has well understood that the Congress takes the benefit of having an alliance with the RJD but it is not equally true vice-versa. When Tejashwi asked Congress to give names of its candidates who have the potential to win in the Bihar legislative council elections, Congress failed to do so, he added.

Political analyst Praveen Bagi said the alliance between the RJD and the Congress in Bihar is an “alliance of compulsions”.

Bagi said the RJD could also expect “moral support” from the Congress when RJD chief Lalu Prasad himself is getting convicted in different scams. He said the Congress with its weak organisational structure cannot sever ties with RJD.

India Today’s special correspondent Pushya Mitra said that the present circumstances compel both parties to continue their alliance. The RJD wants continuation of the alliance with the Congress at the national level, but in Bihar, it is not in any mood to accommodate its aspirations beyond a point, he added.

Mitra said the Congress high command has put its alliance with RJD under scanner ever since Rahul Gandhi has taken the helm. The Congress keeps evaluating political consequences of continuing with the RJD when the caste politics and even corruption cases continue to cast a long shadow over the latter.

Political commentator Kamal Kant Sahay said that whatever the influence or votes Congress has in Bihar, the RJD could not ignore the party altogether. He said that the RJD, because of its alliance with the Congress, also gets strength in its anti-BJP politics. There is also a common perception that the Congress is the only viable alternative to the BJP at the national and this view is even shared by the RJD, he added.

The Congress on the other hand has to depend on the RJD if it wants to win seats in the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, he added.

Tejashwi’s options

Unlike the Congress, the CPI (ML) has the capability of getting its votes transferred to the RJD, making the alliance between the parties more formidable. It has only given strong reason to Tejaswi to depend more on the left parties for expanding his support base.

In the by-polls to two seats held on October 30 last year, the RJD refused to consider the Congress’ demand for giving Kusheshwar Asthan seat in the by-polls. Tejashwi remained unmoved even when the Congress walked out of the grand alliance over the issue. The other seat where the by-poll was held was Tarapur. In the process, both the RJD and the Congress contested by-polls against each other. The by-polls were necessitated by the deaths of incumbent MLAs.

In Kusheshwar Asthan, Congress candidate Atirek Kumar polled less than 6,000 votes while the party candidate Rajesh Mishra polled a little over 3,000 votes in Tarapur. Both Congress candidates forfeited their seats.

Out of the 24 seats of the state legislative council, the RJD will contest 23 seats and has given one seat to the CPI, but blankly refused to concede any seat to the Congress, leaving it red-faced. There is every chance that the Congress may contest all the seats on its own.

Congress’ Bihar problem

The Congress cannot emerge as a formidable force under the shadow of the RJD.

The party lost its traditional vote bank comprising upper castes, Dalits and Muslims, to the BJP, the left parties and the RJD, respectively.

After the Bhagalpur communal riot of 1989, which took place during the Congress regime, Muslims lost their trust in the party and moved away.

They shifted loyalty to Lalu, who along with members of his own caste, the Yadavs, created a new winning formula of Muslim-Yadav (MY) to rule the state from 1990 to 2005. Similarly, the upper castes shifted to the BJP following the emergence of Hindutva politics, competing with the Mandal politics dominated mainly by the OBCs. Dalits also started swearing allegiance to the left parties, which made deep penetration into the state’s hinterland.

There is a perception that no leader can revive the Congress in Bihar until it has a strong organisational base. Dr Kumar said that the Congress would not revive in Bihar until party leaders like Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi take the plunge. A team of young leaders under the stewardship of Rahul could improve the chances of Congress in the state politics, he added.