Ranil needs a magical performance to save himself and Lanka

Going by the slew of events over the last few months, it would appear what Sri Lanka needs is a deep surgery to extricate itself from the economic and political mess it finds itself in. Instead, the election of Ranil Wickremesinghe as President seems more like a cursory band-aid to stop the system from bleeding. Unless, he manages to change the narrative.

Within hours, the janatha aragalaya (people’s struggle) is back on the streets in anger against his election. For someone observing the country from India, the pushback against Wickremesinghe’s election is further revelation that, prima facie, he is not seen as one who can bring succour to the troubled nation. This is ironical as the new incumbent is no greenhorn.

On paper, 73-year-old Wickremesinghe is just the right man for the job. Having been a six-time prime minister, he could have been expected to bring a dangerously unstable nation back on even keel.

The Rajapaksa link

But there seems to be a fundamental problem. Wickremesinghe, the lone United National Party MP, was elected President with the support of the discredited Rajapaksas-controlled political party, the SLPP (Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna).

Also read: Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka’s all-weather President

The messaging has therefore gone against Wickremesinghe. In the first place, it was anger against the gross mismanagement of ousted president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother, prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, both of the SLPP, that brought the people onto the streets in an unprecedented uprising — that is still far from subsiding. Worse, there is widespread fear Wickremesinghe could enable the return of the Rajapaksas to power.

Short of food, medicine, jobs and fuel, desperate people coagulating as the aragalaya want effective action that makes a difference to the starving nation. Wickremesinghe may reiterate he will bring in the requisite changes, but the fact that he is backed by the Rajapaksas makes him a suspect.

On auto pilot mode

Since the time when Mahinda first, followed by Gotabaya were literally chased out of their offices, Sri Lanka is on autopilot. The military has kept out of action, and none really knows who has been calling the shots. Wickremesinghe, before being elected president, declared an Emergency that has largely been ignored.

From similar experiences of spontaneous uprisings elsewhere, it would seem that the deep state will be on an overdrive, trying to preserve the status quo, and prevent the nation from going over the edge — either as anarchy or the forcible takeover by, as yet, unknown or fringe groups. In the 1970s, there were active groups either fighting for a separate Tamil nation (represented by groups like the Tamil Tigers), a hardline Sinhala-Buddhist lobby and a Left party like the Janata Vimukti Perumana (JVP).

Also read: Sri Lanka: Public anger palpable as Gotabaya actually goes

As it happens, at the current juncture, none of these groups is strong or active enough to utilise the chaos or the political vacuum to make an attempt at takeover. That is what makes the aragalaya intriguing. There is no formal leadership and other than the demand to pull Lanka out from the crisis, there has been no other demand or an attempt to fundamentally alter the status quo.

The aragalaya, according to reports, largely comprises students, farmers and independent political activists backed by the common people.

Foreign aid

In the absence of an overarching aid from any other country, particularly India and China, Wickremesinghe has had no option but to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But how soon the IMF can deliver, or whether it can serve Sri Lanka’s purpose at all, is yet to be seen. Reports say the IMF typically takes a few months to process requests for loans of the kind Colombo needs.

Wickremesinghe is considered closer to India than to China. But India too, caught up in its own economic crisis, has not made any particular effort to use the opportunity to offer any extraordinary help that would have probably regained its clout over Sri Lanka. New Delhi has given a helping hand that has served Lanka’s purpose only to a limited extent.

China’s response has been surprisingly cold. Having dislodged India and taken over as Colombo’s dominant partner since the end of the Eelam conflict in 2009, it was widely expected that the Chinese would go out of its way to lift Sri Lanka from its crisis, in the process further cementing its ties with that country. Instead, Beijing’s help has reportedly been lesser than India’s, and that has been confounding.

Also read: President and PM: 2 men at heart of Sri Lankan crisis

According to some reports, the Chinese have possibly been stung by criticism that the huge loans they provided have been one reason why Sri Lanka is today in an economic crisis, being unable to service the debt.

Secondly, Lankan analysts say the terms of aid that the Chinese have offered Colombo during the current crisis have not been of much use. Apparently, the conditions that come with the aid could make Colombo even more dependent on Beijing. That possibility precluded even the Gotabaya dispensation from making use of Beijing’s offer.

For the aragalaya, right now neither Beijing, New Delhi or the region’s geo-politics is of any importance. All they are demanding is for something to be done to restore economic normalcy in the country. It does not matter where the help comes from. It is this urgent need that stares Wickremesinghe in his face.

The challenges in front of Wickremesinghe are actually mind-boggling. He would need to control the uprising, bring in emergency food and fuel while ensuring there is no political subversion.

The Lankan Parliament voting him as President is only the first step. He needs to pull out something magical from his hat to convince the aragalaya he is capable of dealing with the crisis. Else, bigger trouble is in the offing for the already-beleaguered country.