Prachanda becomes Nepal PM as big powers vie for nation’s control

When Nepal’s Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda walked out of a coalition meeting with the Nepali Congress and walked into his fellow Communist K P Oli’s camp,  he effectively tilted the tiny Himalayan nation’s balance of power in favour of China.

The new Prime Minister,  Prachanda,  has once again proved the prevalence of the delicate nature of power in Nepal which has seen a see-saw battle for control between its two giant neighbours — India and China — ever since the end of monarchy in 2008 and the adoption of a new Constitution in 2015.

For India,  obviously,  the return to power of the various factions of the Communist party is a cause for concern.  After a period of near-hostility with former Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, who challenged India’s control over the Lipulekh-Limpiyadhura-Kalapani triangle, the return to power of the Nepali Congress under Sher Bahadur Deuba was a relief to New Delhi.

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But,  as the latest events have shown,  neither India nor China can rest in peace in the context of a fractured polity in Kathmandu.  Willy-nilly,  a bewildered Nepali population is being pushed and pulled by the region’s geopolitics.   On the one hand is India,  a traditional friend and partner of Nepal, and on the other is China, which is now a big player in Kathmandu.

US in the fray, too

As if this were not enough,  the US has jumped into the fray.  An offer by a US government agency,  the Millenium Challenge Corporation, in 2017 to fund the erection of power lines and modernise transport infrastructure worth $500 million across the country landed squarely in a mess. The reason for the opposition was not the project itself. 

The entry of the US set the cat among the pigeons with China engineering a massive dissent against the project.  The result: there were street protests across Nepal.  The US’s help was interpreted as an attempt to control Nepal’s politics.  Unlike the normal process, the agreement was to have been ratified by Nepal’s Parliament.

This did not happen as scheduled and the US had to issue a diktat, warning of consequences, before it was cleared by Parliament in February this year. 

Delhi, an incidental beneficiary

For India,  the arrival of the US into Nepal is good news as it will end up strengthening New Delhi’s position in its rivalry with Beijing.  In the long run, the US entry into Nepal is part of Washington’s strategy to counter China wherever and however possible.  New Delhi is an incidental beneficiary. 

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India may view the development with delight but it could end up facing a backlash in the form of increased friction with China.  Already,  the two are almost at each other’s throats all along their 3,500 km border, and the arrival of the US in Nepal is not going to help ease the situation one bit. 

The return to power of Prachanda as Nepal’s Prime Minister, in this context, is significant.  Broadly,  the Communists under Oli are clearly pro-China.  The Nepali Congress under Sher Bahadur Deuba is pro-India.  Where does this leave Prachanda and his Communist faction?

Prachanda’s track record is revealing – he can play both ways,  in what is popularly called “opportunistic politics”.  Until Sunday,  he was well-entrenched with the pro-India Deuba and, from now on,  he will be with the pro-China Oli.  

What Prachanda wants

All Prachanda wanted was to be Prime Minister in a power-sharing arrangement where he and Deuba would both take turns to occupy the top position.  Deuba refused.  The door was open, and Prachanda walked out.  Oli couldn’t believe his luck and quickly agreed to let Prachanda be the Prime minister in a similar PM-sharing deal.

Probably,  New Delhi’s advisers were not quick enough to ask Deuba to take a more conciliatory position.  No surprises if China, on the other hand, pushed Oli to seize the opportunity and return to power.  

This is not the first time that Prachanda has played opportunistic politics.  At the height of the protests against the US’s power project earlier this year, he expressed reluctance to support it.  But it so happened that he along with Oli, no less, had actually supported the US project during negotiations and had even assured Washington that it would be implemented in a matter of months.

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When this news leaked to the media,  it resulted in denting his opposition. 

This may show top Nepali politicians in poor light,  but one shouldn’t forget that they are being used by powers far bigger than themselves.  The reality is Kathmandu is well and truly an important factor for three big powers,  and it is beyond any political party in the tiny nation to steer clear of it.

India vs China

India has always been a major player, right from the time of its Independence,  with the deep state involved at various levels in Nepal.  China has caught up in recent years,  particularly after India’s myopic land blockade of Nepal in 2015.  The perception of India as “big brother” was validated by this action, leaving the space for China to appear benevolent. 

Ironically,  what Nepal ended up eventually earning was another big brother in Beijing. Now, ‘Uncle Sam’  too is interested in the nation as part of its larger Indo-Pacific Strategy against China.  With Prachanda getting to the top along with Oli,  it may be a breather for China but it is bound to be transitory.  

It would be no exaggeration to suggest that Nepal is now in a situation similar to Ukraine that was caught in a tug-of-war between the US-led West and Russia. A wrong move there led to war with widespread death and destruction. Hopefully, Kathmandu’s politicians in general and Prachanda now will play their cards right to avoid any such calamity.